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BUSINESSTODAY 12 December 2019

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12.12.19 15 BREXIT VOTERS in the United Kingdom will shuffle through the doors of their old schools, churches and village halls to- day, casting their votes in the country's third general election in less than five years. IT isn't hyperbole to say that this poll comes at a critical time for the UK, a country whose position in the world is in flux, and whose future is far from certain. Voters have been confronted with two drastically different visions for what comes next, and must decide between two very different men to lead them there. Brexit, the all-consuming political be- hemoth that has brought the country to a standstill since 2016, has dominated discussions during the six-week cam- paign. But other issues such as healthcare, climate change, taxes and social care have also been center stage, and dis- putes between Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservatives and Jeremy Corbyn's opposition Labour Party have been heated. By tomorrow morning, we should know which side will form Brit- ain's next government. Why is an election happening now? In a word: Brexit. Since former Prime Minister eresa May's disastrous gamble on a snap elec- tion in 2017 deprived her of a working majority in the House of Commons, Britain's Parliament has been at a politi- cal standstill. at result prevented May from passing her Brexit deal three times and dealt Johnson a series of defeats over his own Brexit strategy. e next election was not due to take place until 2022. But Johnson came to the same conclusion as May -- that the only way out of the impasse was to hold an early vote in an attempt to seek a par- liamentary majority in order to enact his Brexit plan. Opposition lawmakers backed his call after weeks of debate, and set the date of Britain's first December election since 1923. What's happening during the campaign? Candidates have dutifully appeared in a checklist of traditional election photo ops; they've read books to bored school children, piped campaign mes- sages onto doughnuts and had babies thrust into their arms as they maneuver through crowds of supporters. But in virtually every other way, the two major parties took significantly dif- ferent approaches to the election. John- son attempted to hammer home his central message, repeating his slogan "Get Brexit Done" at every opportunity and claiming he would secure the UK's withdrawal by January 31 if he wins a majority. Opponents have pointed out that even if he does pass his withdrawal deal through Parliament, more difficult ne- gotiations over trade would ensue with the EU and the United States. Johnson has limited his media ap- pearances during the campaign and has faced criticism over his refusal to do a number of high-profile TV interviews. Corbyn is offering a confirmatory ref- erendum on a softer Brexit deal within six months if he wins power, but the Labour leader has spent much less time discussing the B-word on the campaign trail. Instead, he's focused on his ambitious domestic agenda, which promises an end to years of austerity and a number of funding increases. He's also put the UK's National Health Service (NHS) at the center of the campaign, warning of the potential impact a UK-US trade deal might have on the service. He's pledged to renationalise Britain's railways, water and energy companies, and to implement an increased tax on Britain's highest earners. But Corbyn has faced a rougher ride than he did in his energized 2017 campaign, and recurrent allegations of anti-Semitism within Labour have dogged his party's efforts. Meanwhile, two smaller parties -- the anti-Brexit Liberal Democrats and Ni- gel Farage's Brexit Party -- started the campaign with respectable polling fig- ures but have been squeezed by the big two blocs. Who's going to win? Johnson liked his chances of win- ning enough to call the election, and pollsters have consistently given him a lead over Corbyn throughout the campaign. The gap has narrowed slightly, but not enough to change most pundits' predictions. But we've been here before. The Conservatives were expected to win a landslide in 2017, but they lost seats. They were expected to finish neck and neck with Labour in 2015, but earned a comfortable victory. Adding to the uncertainty for John- son is that anything other than an out- right win could see him locked out of Downing Street. Parties need at least 320 seats to command a majority in Parliament, and the Conservatives have few, if any, partners to help them out should they come up short. Predicting British elections is a fool's game, but most pundits agree that if the gap between Labour and the Con- servatives ends up in the low-to-mid single digits, we could be in hung Par- liament territory. Everything you need to know about today's crucial election in the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn

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