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he had even secured the support a large segment of the parliamentary group, including that of prominent cabinet members Ian Borg and even from the disgraced Konrad Mizzi. Even Muscat is reported to have given his blessing to a pact, which would have seen Fearne as the sole candidate with Abela and Borg serving as his deputies. In many ways Fearne started to appear as Muscat's Gordon Brown. For as was the case with Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, while there is no love lost between the two politi- cians, Muscat may have accepted Fearne as his natural replacement, albeit reluc- tantly. The compromises done to secure the support of the party establish- ment may well return to haunt Fearne once elected. It was Abela who tipped the apple cart, triggering a contest among members. Fearne has harped on the message that he is still the inevi- table winner of the contest, giving the impression that he is not even con- templating de- feat. For Fearne has been work- ing for this mo- ment ever since Muscat hinted his intention to depart before the next elec- tion. If he loses his d i s a p p o i n t m e n t will be palpable. While there is no doubt that Fearne will accept the result, the bad blood may linger on, erod- ing party unity in the next years. 4. Abela has made inroads but having nothing to lose tends to shoot from the hip Abela started the campaign with a low-key approach, ap- pealing directly to members and avoiding the official me- dia while focusing on the so- cial media where he gained an edge, helped by the input of young activists. Abela's candidature has also been boosted by the popular- ity of his spouse Lydia Abela, herself a leading party offi- cial. The Abelas may well be seen as another power couple replacing the Muscats. While initially reclusive on policy, during the past few days Abela was more forthcoming and adventurous in his policy proposals. He has also indirectly challenged two aspects of continuity with the Muscat years; the reliance on foreign workers and the competitive tax advantages for foreign companies. His criticism of a tax system giving foreign companies like Lidl an advantage over local businesses was refreshing. He was also more categorical than Fearne on excluding ODZ development, even if his role as PA lawyer has seen him defending a number of controversial permits. On the other hand, Fearne has been cautious not to up- set the apple cart of economic growth, while focusing on addressing reputational damage, which he promises to ad- dress. This may be a reflection of the fact that Fearne already sees himself as Prime Minister and refuses to condition himself with promises which may return to haunt him once elected. On the other hand as the underdog Abela may feel less conditioned by these consideration and feels freer but his proposals lack a coherent narrative. 5. Warts and all, Fearne sounds more like a future PM Fearne may lack charisma and may have already had to compromise to secure his election. Recently he has even hinted at the reappointment of Gozo strongman Anton Re- falo to the cabinet, who was removed from the cabinet by Muscat immediately after the election. But he definitely has experience and the demeanour of a Prime Minister. Abela looks more inspiring and daring but remains a wild card. But Fearne may be too conditioned by his own lead- ing role in the Muscat administration to offer a fresh start or to think out of the box. Still his reputation for integrity may well see him taking the party to new heights. For if the economy continues to perform well while he still manages to clean up Labour's act, he may even end up increasing his party's majority. Yet this may in itself result in contradictions. For to keep the economy growing, Fearne himself may end up closing his eyes to abuses in the construction sector amongst oth- ers. But the risk is that he may end up presiding over a long period of decline as the dark shadows of past corruption scandals and the Caruana Galizia assassination probe starts catching up with him forcing him to take decisions which will either leave the opposition angrier or his party divided. If this coincides with a slowdown in economic growth he become more tempted to resort to divisive tribalism to boost his authority and he has clearly not mastered this skill. He also risks facing the fate met by past leaders like Kar- menu Mifsud Bonnici and Lawrence Gonzi who were over shadowed by their predecessors. Comparisons with Muscat will be made and if the econ- omy slows down, Fearne will be in deep trouble. That may give more reason to Fearne to shy away from the promise of change his candidature initially seemed to offer. maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 8 JANUARY 2020 7 NEWS ANALYSIS the dark horse or the co-pilot?