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11 maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 19 FEBRUARY 2020 OPINION GLOBAL dissatisfaction with democracy has increased over the past 25 years, according to our recent report. Drawing upon the HUMAN Surveys project, the report cov- ered 154 countries, with 77 countries covered continuous- ly for the period from 1995 to 2020. These samples were possi- ble thanks to the combination of data from over 25 sources, 3,500 national surveys, and 4 million respondents. Not surprisingly, the gloomy headline finding – rising demo- cratic dissatisfaction – attracted the most attention. Less widely discussed, however, is the "good news" – that a small sample of countries has bucked the trend, and have record high levels of satisfaction with their democra- cies. Why are such countries – the Netherlands, Denmark, or Switzerland – able to achieve high and rising levels of demo- cratic contentment? There are four factors that stand out in explaining why some democracies have – or have not – experienced an eroding democratic satisfac- tion. These can be summarised by four "Ps": polarisation, pa- ralysis, perfidy (or scandal), and powerlessness. Polarisation First, countries with increas- ing polarisation show rising dis- satisfaction. This is especially the case in majoritarian elector- al systems that generate "win- ners and losers", leaving close to half of the electorate dissatisfied following every election. Recent research shows that the US has had the largest in- crease in polarisation since the 1990s, and it is also among the countries with the largest increase in democratic dissat- isfaction. Other majoritarian democracies, such as Canada and the UK, have suffered the same trend, though, on a more limited scale. The countries such as Den- mark or Switzerland, which we call the "islands of con- tentment", on the other hand, have limited polarisation and use proportional representa- tion. The political structures of these nations drive them to- wards more cooperative forms of politics, and they are often less complicated to govern. Paralysis Citizens abhor a political vac- uum. Perhaps one of the clear- est examples is the UK during the Brexit paralysis of 2019, in which the British cabinet and parliament were logjammed over whether to pass the EU withdrawal agreement, hold a second referendum, or call an election. The UK is not the only exam- ple: government shutdowns in the US under Bill Clinton in 1995-6, Barack Obama in 2013, and Donald Trump in 2018-9 did not increase public satis- faction. And in Australia, the revolving door of prime minis- ters between 2013 and 2018 has left many voters dissatisfied. On the other hand, in coun- tries where there is relative continuity in government, such crises are avoided. In Switzer- land, the so-called "magic for- mula" coalition at the federal level almost prevents such cri- ses by design and satisfaction has been rising. Perfidy Perfidy – or, corruption and scandal – is one of the strong- est predictors of dissatisfaction with democracy. These can be short-lived, as with the UK par- liamentary expenses scandal of 2009, which saw dissatisfaction temporarily spike, or rather longer in duration, such as the "tangentpoli" investigations in 1990s Italy which led to the collapse of the entire party sys- tem. Inevitably, more extreme ex- amples can be found in many emerging democracies. In Bra- zil, democratic dissatisfaction has soared since the start of the "Lava Jato" investigations in 2014. And in South Africa, a string of corruption revelations during the presidency of Jacob Zuma sent democratic dissatis- faction soaring to record highs. Denmark, Switzerland, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg on the other hand are the first, fourth, eighth, and ninth least corrupt countries in the world, respectively, according to Transparency International. Powerlessness Finally, citizens must feel that they have agency over the po- litical process. A clear example of powerless- ness is where there is low elec- toral integrity. Elections are one of the most visible aspects of democracy, and unfair elec- toral practices decrease public satisfaction. The unlimited money pouring into US elections since 2010, its demonstrably gerrymandered electoral districts, active voter suppression, and controversies in vote counting have left many disillusioned with the elector- al process. Canada is better off, but the circumvention of election finance rules by Con- servatives in the 2006 election campaign and Robocall scandal in the 2011 Canadian federal elections did not enhance pub- lic satisfaction. By comparison, the Electoral Integrity Project run by Har- vard and Sydney universities, gives Denmark, Switzerland, the Netherlands, and Luxem- bourg some of the best scores in the world. Feelings of political agency re- quire a sense of influence over domestic institutions, but also a sense that those institutions are in themselves sovereign. A number of the most satisfied nations in our study are either on the outskirts of the EU (Nor- way and Switzerland), or not in the eurozone (Denmark), pro- jects that require substantial pooling of sovereignty in order to function. Meanwhile, countries in southern Europe such as Greece, caught in the eurozone crisis, have experienced a pro- found breakdown in democrat- ic satisfaction in recent years. Bolstering satisfaction in de- mocracy will require address- ing multiple issues. But ac- knowledging that democratic discontent has deeper roots is a necessary starting point. Roberto Foa & Andrew James Klassen Where people are satisfied with democracy and why Roberto Foa is a lecturer in Politics and Public Policy & Andrew James Klassen is an affiliated Researcher, at the University of Cambridge