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6 maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 5 AUGUST 2020 NEWS ANALYSIS After the wedding: seven hurdles Alternattiva Demokratika and the Partit Demokratiku have taken their vows. But will the sum of two parties past their prime be greater than that of the parts? asks JAMES DEBONO ALTERNATTIVA Demokrati- ka has been part of the Maltese political landscape for the past three decades during which it left its mark by acting as a trailblazer for reforms, which in a number of cases were later absorbed in the agenda of the two major parties. The Partit Demokratiku man- aged to break new ground by giv- ing Malta a taste of coalition pol- itics, electing former Labour MPs turned independent Marlene Farrugia and Godfrey Farrugia to parliament in a pre-election deal with the PN, only to be orphaned by the Farrugias themselves after the party's poor performance in MEP elections last year. Bereft of any MPs, MEPs and even local councillors, the two parties have decided to merge and fight together. But what ob- stacles do they face? 1. The sum of two spent forces does not add up to something bigger AD can boast of having been on the right side of history in both the divorce and the EU referen- da, and has spearheaded most major reforms in the past three decades not just on environmen- tal issues but also in civil liberties (being the first to have proposed equal marriage and divorce) and institutional reforms (being the first to propose whistleblower, revolving doors and lobbying reg- ulations). But apart from a notable 9% in Malta's first MEP elections in 2004 and some isolated successes at local level, AD has underper- formed in all other electoral ap- pointments. In 2019 AD lost their last, long-time local councillor on the Attard council. The PD, which for a time cap- tured the anger against Labour's industrial-scale corruption, did manage to elect two MPs in the 2017 election but only on the back of a losing coalition with the PN. After being completely asso- ciated with the Farrugia power couple, whose antics and moral conservatism alienated a signifi- cant number of potential voters, the party lost steam. The merger taking place now is one between two parties who are past their heyday. But despite their precarious ex- istence they remain jealous of their identity to the extent that the party's new name is AD/ PD, thus refusing to vacate the space for something fresh and new. Prhaps reminding people of the past may not be the best way to attract new support. In- stead the two parties could have been more courageous, ditching their history in favour of some- thing with a brand new identity, logo and leaders. 2. People won't renounce their say in determining which party should be in government Small parties constantly blame the unfairness of the electoral sys- tem, which limits their success. But the electoral system does give voters one major power: that of determining which of the two big parties governs the country. This is because of amendments to the Constitution which ensure that if two parties are elected to parlia- ment, the party with the largest number of first preference votes is elected to government. In this way, anyone voting for a smaller third party is renouncing a say in determining who is in govern- ment. Therefore, third parties only appeal to a restricted number of voters who are willing to re- nounce having a say in the mat- ter. Third parties have three ways of doing away with this obstacle. The most obvious and difficult option would be that of present- ing themselves as contenders for government. But this contrasts with the image of pesky rebels projected by both PD and AD. Moreover, with polls showing both parties in low single digits any such pretentions would look surreal. The second solution would be to repeat the PD's 2017 feat by riding on the back of a pre-elec- toral coalition. But it may well be the case that the behaviour of the Farrugias after the 2017 elections, and the resentment in the PN it- self for losing two seats to the PD, may well have poisoned the well. The third solution would be that of focusing on the election of an MP from one district, banking on vote transfers from other par- ties. But even here, Malta lacks a vote transfer culture, unlike Ire- land, which has the same elector- al system but elects many parties to parliament. 3. Not voting is an alternative to voting for small ineffective parties Surveys show a substantial number of voters, particularly more than one-fourth of ter- tiary-educated voters intend on not voting. In the absence of a third party which captures their imagination, voters may be keener to register their protest by not voting. But if a new party does capture their imagination it may be a different ball game for voters who distrust both parties equally. Still, one key factor in this is whether the PN will have a new leader who is more trust- ed by these voters than Delia. In that case, third parties may face a more uphill battle than if De- lia remains PN leader. But a new PN leader in a more continental frame of mind may be more in- clined for a coalition, but only if this would make a difference for the PN's prospects.