Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1275680
7 maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 5 AUGUST 2020 NEWS ANALYSIS hurdles for the AD/PD party 4. If the PN changes, the next election will be about clipping Labour's wings AD lost more than half of its 2013 vote in the 2017 general election for the sheer reason that many of its voters ended up vot- ing for the Forza Nazzjonali coa- lition in a failed bid to topple the Muscat government. If Delia is replaced by a more trustworthy PN leader, it would be inevitable for many potential third-party voters to start seeing the next election as the last opportunity to clip Labour's wings by narrow- ing the gap, thus reinvigorating the parliamentary opposition. In this scenario, in the absence of a coalition with the PN, the AD/ PD would risk irrelevance. But the cost of this would be alien- ating that segment of third-party voters who distrust the PN com- pletely. This is bound to be an- other catch-22 for the new party. 5. Progressive third parties have failed to tap the Labour vote The reality is that socially liber- al third parties in Malta tend to be over-dependent on disillusion among PN voters. The more solid Labour vote has so far proved to be a harder nut to crack for green and liberal third parties. In MEP elections the far-right has been a far greater threat to Labour. One reason for this is that third parties mostly appeal to educated mid- dle-class voters who traditionally have been more inclined to vote PN. Still, Labour's vote may be less homogenous than before and cracks may start to emerge be- tween different categories of La- bour voters, especially amongst liberals who migrated to Labour in 2013. Labour's move to the right which has been sustained under Robert Abela, should also open up a new constituency of socialist voters for the new party. But to appeal for this segment the new party has to become more populist in proposing wide-ranging social reforms. To reach out to these voters the new party may also have to keep its distance from the PN. With opinion polls showing Labour retaining the vast majority of its 2017 voters, it remains doubtful whether such a strategy makes any sense. 6. Local councils are an oppor- tunity… but independents may fill that void In the past AD was a fixture in local councils in Attard and Sliema. The loss of representa- tion at local level was a major blow for the party. The PD tried to contest a number of localities, including Sliema, but failed to get elected. But by focusing on local level, the new party may gain the trust of voters. But even here, independent candidates rooted in the community may be per- ceived to be more fitting for the role than little known candidates contesting under a third party banner. Moreover people who are al- ready rooted in their community may consider the chances of a successful run at local level high- er under the independent label. The successful run of Steve Zam- mit Lupi in the Zebbug council and his ability to work with coun- cillors from both parties may well set an example for candidates in other localities. Independent candidates are not perceived as a threat by voters of other parties who will therefore be more likely to transfer their vote to an inde- pendent than to someone con- testing with a smaller party. Still, third parties may choose to support civic lists composed of independent candidates, showing good will and long-term strategic thinking. In the long term, trust- ed independents at local level may discover that change at na- tional level is indispensable for improving the quality of life of citizens. But their success at local level may also encourage inde- pendent candidacies at national level, like that of Arnold Cassola in the 2019 MEP election. 7. Civil society has more power than weak third parties AD was founded at a time when civil society was far less vibrant than today. In fact AD which owes its origins to activists in human rights and environmen- tal NGOs, but kept an identity of an NGO to keep the other par- ties under pressure by the sheer threat of taking away votes from them. However, activists in groups like Graffitti may feel that it is more effective in building coali- tions in communities threatened by over-development, and coop- erating with politicians on both sides of the divide. By not joining the electoral fray these groups are more trusted by local com- munities because they are seen as having no other agenda apart that of safeguarding the environ- ment and the quality of life of residents. Third parties can still find ways of collaborating with NGOs by coming up with legislative pro- posals which strengthen civil society. But activist groups may feel empowered to influence the debate within the two big par- ties rather than joining the fray themselves. Some groups like Repubblika have been particular- ly influential among Nationalist voters who do not trust Delia, while Graffitti provided a refer- ence point for those on the left who were disgusted by corrup- tion in Labour, especially during the December protests. The new party could replicate what Graf- fitti did in the streets on a more political level, by giving rep- resentation to non-partisans and leftists in a broader movement for change. Once again third parties can on- ly contribute by reaffirming their role as trailblazers for political reform. But ultimately their abil- ity to lead an insurgency against the broken system depends on the emergence of a new gener- ation of leaders who are able to inspire voters. The question is: what would successful NGO ac- tivists and leaders gain by joining a party with few chances of be- ing elected? What the new party can give them is the excitement which comes from the oppor- tunity of being part of a wide movement for radical change. If the new party is able to inspire, it would have already made the most crucial first step.