Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1276949
2 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 9 AUGUST 2020 MALTATODAY SURVEY KURT SANSONE BERNARD Grech enjoys the highest trust level among Nationalist Party mem- bers and is considered the person best suited to bring about unity, a MaltaToday survey shows. Grech achieved a score of 63.1% in the high category when party members were asked to rate their trust in the individual candidates. Only 5.8% gave Grech a low score, while 22.1% gave him a medium rating. This contrasts with incumbent PN lead- er Adrian Delia, who achieved a score of 23.3% in the high category, 34.3% in the medium and 35.3% in the low category. The survey also found that 'lack of unity' was perceived as the principle problem within the PN by 43.4% of party mem- bers, followed by an 'inadequate leader' (19.5%) and an 'inadequate parliamentary group' (12.1%). When asked who was the most likely candidate to solve the party's problems, Grech once again emerged on top with 50.8%, followed by Delia with 12.8%. The survey was carried out among PN members, who will be the ones to choose the party leader in the coming weeks. MaltaToday was leaked an anonymised PN membership list that had contact numbers and the locality of residence. The responses were grouped by electoral districts. The survey was carried out between 3 and 7 August when internal discussions were taking place within the party to find a unity candidate who would run against Delia. Eventually, potential contenders, Rob- erta Metsola, Therese Comodini Cachia and Mark Anthony Sammut ruled them- selves out of the contest, paving the way for Grech's candidature. The survey shows that Metsola achieved a trust score of 39.5% in the high catego- ry, and a low score of 13.9%, while Co- modini Cachia scored 10.2% in the high category and 45.9% in the low. Sammut scored 22.4% in the high category and 18.4% in the low. How does Grech perform? Grech achieved an absolute majority in the high trust category across all elec- toral districts bar the Eleventh and the Seventh, where he mustered 31.9% and 48.5% respectively. He emerged overwhelmingly strong in the Fifth and Tenth Districts, with PN members here giving him a high trust rat- ing of 85.8% and 81.6% respectively. In Gozo, which is an electoral district in its own right, Grech scored 69% in the high trust category. Grech achieved a higher top trust rat- ing among women than men (67.8% vs 58.7%) and scored absolute majorities in the highest category across all age groups. Among those aged between 18 and 35, Grech achieved 57.5% in the high trust category and 68.9% among those aged 65 and over. How does Delia perform? Delia could not muster a single absolute majority in the high trust category across all electoral districts. His highest top trust rating was among party members in the Second District (43.7%) but posted a dismal showing in the Tenth District where he achieved a zero score in the high category and 69.5% in the low. In Gozo, Delia achieved a high trust cat- egory score of 24.9% and 47.3% in the low trust category. His trust rating among women and men is very similar, with 23.8% and 22.8% re- spectively giving him a high score. Among the young, Delia scored 17.6% trust in the high category and 21.7% among the elderly. Who is likely to win? The survey did not ask PN members who they will vote for given the uncer- tainty over the number of candidates considering a run for the leadership. However, the results are indicative of a surge of support for Grech, who is a rela- tive outsider in the PN. He has never held a position within the party and was only recently included in a policy cluster as part of the internal restructuring. The high trust levels enjoyed by Grech across electoral districts and age groups, and the perception that he is the most likely to bring about unity, suggest that he starts the race in pole position. Whether he will retain the top spot will, however, also depend on his per- formance in the leadership campaign when members will get the chance to know him better. Delia has proved himself to be a tough campaigner and as the Labour leadership contest of last January shows, nothing can be taken for granted. In the PL race, Chris Fearne had started the race well ahead of Robert Abela, only to be eclipsed at the final hour as support for the latter surged spectacularly. Grech in pole position with high trust ranking among PN members 12 13 Gozo Northern Northern Harbour South Eastern Southern Harbour Western 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 22.5% 51.0% 24.9% 69.0% 24.9% 69.0% 10.0% 56.5% 23.4% 70.0% 24.6% 74.3% 39.2% 58.9% 22.5% 48.7% What is the principal reason for the PN's current state of affairs? Top five replies ALL Male Female 16-35 36-50 51-65 65+ Primary Secondary Post-Sec Tertiary 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Gozo Northern Northern Harbour South Eastern Southern Harbour Western 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 43.4% 19.5% 12.1% 9.9% 7.2% 46.6% 17.3% 12.6% 8.6% 40.1% 21.9% 11.7% 11.3% 9.2% 54.8% 17.3% 10.6% 8.4% 28.4% 27.3% 17.3% 10.2% 36.4% 19.3% 14.5% 8.0% 9.4% 51.7% 16.8% 8.7% 12.5% 7.3% 50.5% 11.6% 14.4% 10.1% 48.0% 14.5% 13.6% 8.8% 8.2% 32.1% 35.3% 8.0% 10.1% 36.6% 25.0% 10.1% 19.3% 47.6% 10.4% 16.4% 7.0% 12.8% 47.9% 24.0% 7.5% 11.1% 33.3% 9.5% 21.5% 18.9% 39.8% 36.8% 15.5% 37.6% 19.7% 15.7% 7.3% 7.0% 29.9% 19.8% 16.7% 10.8% 15.5% 28.3% 25.6% 16.2% 11.5% 46.5% 23.5% 7.5% 9.2% 66.6% 26.0% 22.9% 27.2% 43.1% 60.0% 8.2% 5.7% 9.0% 61.4% 13.5% 11.0% 12.4% 47.6% 30.2% 6.3% 47.6% 30.2% 6.3% 47.5% 12.0% 25.9% 43.8% 25.8% 13.0% 7.6% 34.4% 12.7% 27.3% 8.7% 6.0% 46.8% 19.8% 9.3% 14.9% 40.2% 16.7% 12.0% 6.3% 12.3% Lack of unity Inadequate leader Inadequate MPs Lack of political acumen Don't know Financial problems ANALYSIS James Debono on the rebels' chess move that put Bernard Grech in pole position to take on Adrian Delia PGS 12-13