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12 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 23 AUGUST 2020 Ben Noble is lecturer Russian Politics, University College London OPINION Ben Noble Navalny poisoning: why opposition figure stands out in Russian politics ALEXEI Navalny, a prominent Russian opposition politician and activist, has been hospital- ised after a suspected poisoning. Navalny's spokeswoman sug- gested he was poisoned by some- thing in tea he drank on the morning of 20 August before boarding a flight from the Sibe- rian city of Tomsk to Moscow. While on the flight, Navalny be- came ill, and the plane made an emergency landing in Omsk (an- other city in Siberia) so that he could receive medical treatment. Navalny was in Siberia sup- porting candidates running in local elections on 13 Septem- ber. United Russia, the Krem- lin-backed party of power, is expecting more difficulty than usual in securing victories in this upcoming set of electoral races. High-profile critic A lawyer by training, 44-year- old Navalny is a high-profile critic of President Vladimir Pu- tin and the ruling political elite in Russia. Charismatic and anti-Kremlin, Navalny stands out in Russian politics. His profile is a sharp contrast to the politicians that lead supposed "opposition" po- litical parties with seats in the national legislature. These par- ties, led by the likes of 67-year- old Sergei Mironov, 76-year-old Gennady Zyuganov and 74-year- old Vladimir Zhirinovsky, are seen as largely co-opted by the Kremlin. They might make crit- ical comments occasionally, but can be relied upon to support the Kremlin's line when needed. Navalny has attempted to achieve elected office. He ran in the 2013 Moscow mayoral elec- tion, securing 27% of the vote ac- cording to the official figures. He claimed, however, that this fig- ure did not reflect his true level of support in the capital, includ- ing due to falsification. Navalny has ruffled feathers in the past with his sometimes-stri- dent nationalist views – but whether these are sincerely held convictions or attempts to ap- peal to possible supporters is unclear. He was formally barred from running in the 2018 presidential election following criminal con- victions, which some regard as being politically motivated. Navalny has had more success away from electoral politics. In 2011, he established the An- ti-Corruption Foundation to investigate and publicise alleged corruption by senior politicians and state officials. He brand- ed United Russia the "party of crooks and thieves" – a phrase that has stuck. A 2017 YouTube video by the foundation laying out details of a corruption investigation into the-then prime minister, Dmit- ry Medvedev, has had nearly 36 million views. In July 2020, Navalny an- nounced that he was closing the Anti-Corruption Foundation, following a lawsuit linked to Yevgeny Prigozhin, a close asso- ciate of Putin's. Not the 'leader' of the opposi- tion Although a prominent opposi- tion figure, it would be wrong to call Navalny the singular oppo- sition leader in Russia. For one thing, this might give a false im- pression of Navalny's popularity and name recognition in Russia as a whole. In an October 2019 survey con- ducted by the Levada Centre, 9% of respondents said that they related to Navalny's activities "rather positively", with 25% re- lating "rather negatively". A fur- ther 31% said they knew nothing of his activities and the same percentage reacted to Navalny neutrally. Quite how these figures, as well as election results, would change if Russia had a freer media and electoral landscape is not clear. But, as things stand, Navalny is the most high-profile Kremlin critic operating within Russia. Another reason why labelling Navalny as an opposition leader is inappropriate relates to the fact that political opposition forces in Russia are fragmented. They often find it hard to coordi- nate their activities in a way that could mount an effective chal- lenge to the authorities. And this certainly suits the Kremlin. Navalny has, however, spear- headed an effort to help over- come the coordination problems facing the political opposition. Called "smart voting", the aim is to coordinate tactical votes for candidates who are not mem- bers of, or affiliated with, United Russia. The initiative appears to have had some success, including in the 2019 elections for the Mos- cow City Council. Past attacks It's too early to say with cer- tainty why Navalny has fallen ill. However, he has been attacked before, including in a 2017 inci- dent when he was covered in an antiseptic green dye that left him with partial blindness in one eye. Navalny was then hospitalised in 2019 following what could have been a poisoning during his de- tention for violating protest laws. If Navalny has been poisoned, then the specifics of this incident share distinct similarities with past cases. In 2004, Anna Polit- kovskaya, a journalist and vocal critic of the Kremlin's actions in the second Chechen war, was poisoned by drinking tea on a flight. Two years later, she was assassinated. And, in 2006, Alex- ander Litvinenko, a former FSB officer, was poisoned with polo- nium-210 added to tea he drank at a London hotel. Yet, even if Navalny has been poisoned, it's far from certain – and unlikely, even – that this was directly ordered by the Kremlin. What is certain is that the Krem- lin has not taken steps to ensure the safety of opposition figures in modern-day Russia. This was made clear in February 2015 when former Russian deputy prime minister, Boris Nemtsov, was shot to death on a bridge next to the Kremlin in Moscow. By many accounts, the assassi- nation of Nemtsov shocked the Kremlin. But, insofar as this at- tack and others increase the per- ceived costs of political opposi- tion to Putin's rule, the Kremlin benefits from the chilling effect on critical voices in the country. The Kremlin will want to dis- tance itself from any suggestion that it was responsible for Nav- alny's current illness. With pro- tests in neighbouring Belarus after a disputed election and in the Russian city of Khabarovsk following the arrest of the sitting governor, the prospect of anoth- er reason for Russians to pro- test on the streets will be deeply troubling for Putin.