Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1297549
11 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 11 OCTOBER 2020 MALTATODAY SURVEY KURT SANSONE THE Labour Party has polled its lowest result in three years and support is now running at 40.3%, according to a MaltaToday sur- vey. The Nationalist Party's support has climbed to 30%. The gap between the major parties now stands at just over 10 points, the closest it has ever been in three years. Mid-term blues compounded by the COVID-19 pandemic and Bernard Grech's election as PN leader appear to have left their impact on Abela's administra- tion. Transferring the survey result onto the actual performance of the political parties in the last general election (assuming that those who are unsure will vote according to their previous elec- tion choice), shows that the PL enjoys a lead of 30,000 votes, a significant decrease from the 57,000 votes registered last month. In the 2017 election the PL surpassed the PN by 35,280 votes. The PL lost almost five points since the last survey in Septem- ber, a time characterised by rising coronavirus infections and dead- ly outbreaks in elderly homes. Since July, the party in govern- ment lost 7.5 points and its pop- ularity now stands at its lowest since October 2017. The voter retention rate from the last elec- tion has also dropped to 77.3%, in sheer contrast to the 82% and 92% achieved in September and July respectively. The PN's share of the vote climbed almost seven points since September, hitting the 30% mark for the first time since May 2018. Grech's election as leader ap- pears to have brought back into the fold a large section of 2017 PN voters, who felt estranged from the party under his prede- cessor Adrian Delia. The PN's voter retention rate now stands at 72.8%, a signifi- cant increase over the 58.5% and 50.6% achieved in the September and July surveys respectively. The PL beats the PN among male and female voters with a stronger result among women. Labour also beats the PN across all age groups but the difference between the parties has tight- ened, especially among those aged 36 and over. The PL achieves its best result among those aged between 18 and 35, registering 41.7%. The PN still struggles in this age group, obtaining 18.1%. The parties are neck and neck among those aged 65 and over with the PL registering 39.5% against the PN's 39%. Labour suffers in southern strongholds On a regional level the PL emerges ahead in all territories apart from the Northern region. The PL's best result is in Gozo where it achieves an absolute ma- jority at 52.4%. The PN gains the support of 32.1% of the electorate on the sister island. But the PL suffers in its strong- holds in the South East and Southern Harbour. In the South-Eastern region the PL registers 50.4%, which is a far cry from past performanc- es where results hit the 60-70% range. The region roughly coincides with the Third and Fifth electoral districts, which are typically La- bour strongholds. But the PL's relatively poor performance has not resulted in gains for the PN. The Opposition party gets the support of 14.7% in the South-Eastern region, a de- crease from the 19% achieved last month. But Labour's performance is worse in the Southern Harbour region, which roughly coincides with the Second and Fourth elec- toral districts – bulwarks of La- bour support. The party in government gets 44.5% against the PN's 27.8%. The result is probably the most significant marker of the PL ad- ministration's mid-term blues. Since September, the PL lost just over six points, while the PN gained 16 points. The only region where the PN comes ahead is the Northern region, where it scores 36.9% against the PL's 20.1%. This is also the region with larg- est cohort of undecided voters (20.8%). Methodology The survey was carried out be- tween Monday 5 October 2020 and Friday 9 October 2020. 654 respondents opted to complete the survey. Stratified random sampling based on region, age and gender was used to repli- cate the Maltese demographic. The estimated margin of error is 4.8% for a confidence interval of 95% for the overall results. De- mographic and sub-group break- downs have considerably larger margins of error. level in first Grech face-off Robert Abela Bernard Grech Neither Don't know 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 46.6% -5.1pp 30.9% 13.0% 9.4% 4.8pp 11 Oct 2020 PP change 6 Sep 2020 Between Robert Abela and Bernard Grech, who do you trust the most? Full demographics comparing trust between Abela and Grech Overall PL PN AD Did not vote Male Female 18-35 36-50 51-65 65+ Gozo Northern N Harbour S Eastern S Harbour Western Primary Secondary Post-Sec Tertiary 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 46.6% 30.9% 9.4% 13.0% 85.2% 7.1% 73.4% 10.5% 10.3% 11.9% 88.1% 15.5% 8.6% 18.5% 57.4% 43.7% 30.2% 11.6% 14.5% 50.6% 31.8% 6.5% 11.0% 45.0% 21.4% 12.2% 21.4% 46.7% 30.7% 17.5% 46.4% 33.2% 12.2% 8.2% 49.2% 41.0% 7.7% 54.8% 45.2% 26.4% 39.1% 15.4% 19.1% 46.1% 36.3% 6.2% 11.3% 53.0% 16.3% 10.6% 20.1% 52.7% 27.2% 14.1% 55.0% 21.1% 16.1% 7.8% 47.6% 41.8% 7.5% 56.1% 26.7% 6.3% 10.9% 47.6% 21.7% 14.1% 16.6% 33.9% 36.5% 11.6% 18.0% Abela Grech Don't Know None Which political party would you vote for if an election were to be held tomorrow? Overall PL PN AD Did not vote Male Female 18-35 36-50 51-65 65+ Gozo Northern N Harbour 40.3% 30.0% 13.9% 12.3% 77.3% 10.9% 7.1% 72.8% 15.6% 7.5% 11.9% 30.1% 16.6% 27.8% 8.3% 22.1% 58.2% 36.8% 27.8% 15.9% 14.5% 44.9% 33.0% 11.3% 9.4% 41.7% 18.1% 19.3% 17.6% 40.1% 32.2% 12.1% 11.5% 39.7% 33.0% 13.8% 12.0% 39.5% 39.0% 9.1% 6.7% 52.3% 32.1% 6.6% 9.0% 20.1% 36.9% 20.8% 11.7% 39.1% 34.7% 12.2% 9.7% PL PN AD PD Do not know No vote Labour polls lowest result in three years 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Full demographics comparing trust between Abela and Grech Overall PL PN AD Did not vote Male Female 18-35 36-50 51-65 65+ Gozo Northern N Harbour S Eastern S Harbour Western Primary Secondary Post-Sec Tertiary 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 46.6% 30.9% 9.4% 13.0% 85.2% 7.1% 73.4% 10.5% 10.3% 11.9% 88.1% 15.5% 8.6% 18.5% 57.4% 43.7% 30.2% 11.6% 14.5% 50.6% 31.8% 6.5% 11.0% 45.0% 21.4% 12.2% 21.4% 46.7% 30.7% 17.5% 46.4% 33.2% 12.2% 8.2% 49.2% 41.0% 7.7% 54.8% 45.2% 26.4% 39.1% 15.4% 19.1% 46.1% 36.3% 6.2% 11.3% 53.0% 16.3% 10.6% 20.1 % 52.7% 27.2% 14.1% 55.0% 21.1% 16.1% 7.8% 47.6% 41.8% 7.5% 56.1% 26.7% 6.3% 10.9% 47.6% 21.7% 14.1% 16.6% 33.9% 36.5% 11.6% 18.0% Abela Grech Don't Know None Which political party would you vote for if an election were to be held tomorrow? Overall PL PN AD Did not vote Male Female 18-35 36-50 51-65 65+ Gozo Northern N Harbour S Eastern S Harbour Western Primary Secondary Post-Sec Tertiary 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 40.3% 30.0% 13.9% 12.3% 77.3% 10.9% 7.1% 72.8% 15.6% 7.5% 11.9% 30.1% 16.6% 27.8% 8.3% 22.1% 58.2% 36.8% 27.8% 15.9% 14.5% 44.9% 33.0% 11.3% 9.4% 41.7% 18.1% 19.3% 17.6% 40.1% 32.2% 12.1% 11.5% 39.7% 33.0% 13.8% 12.0% 39.5% 39.0% 9.1% 6.7% 52.3% 32.1% 6.6% 9.0% 20.1% 36.9% 20.8% 11.7% 39.1% 34.7% 12.2% 9.7% 50.4% 14.7% 15.1% 18.6% 44.4% 27.8% 12.6% 15.2% 47.3% 27.5% 13.1% 11.0% 40.2% 38.9% 7.5% 6.2% 51.4% 24.8% 11.5% 11.5% 38.3% 22.7% 16.4% 20.8% 27.6% 36.7% 18.3% 11.3% PL PN AD PD Do not know No vote Historical voting polls