Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1297549
maltatoday | SUNDAY • 11 OCTOBER 2020 10 MALTATODAY SURVEY Mid-term blues compounded by the COVID-19 pandemic and Bernard Grech's election as PN leader appear to have left their impact on Abela's administration Abela trust sinks to lowest level Trust Barometer and Political Survey Robert Abela Bernard Grech Neither Don't know 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 46.6% -5.1pp 30.9% 13.0% 9.4% 4.8pp 11 Oct 2020 PP change 6 Sep 2020 Between Robert Abela and Bernard Grech, who do you trust the most? Full demographics comparing trust between Abela and Grech Overall PL PN AD Did not vote Male Female 18-35 36-50 51-65 65+ 46.6% 30.9% 9.4% 13.0% 85.2% 7.1% 73.4% 10.5% 10.3% 11.9% 88.1% 15.5% 8.6% 18.5% 57.4% 43.7% 30.2% 11.6% 14.5% 50.6% 31.8% 6.5% 11.0% 45.0% 21.4% 12.2% 21.4% 46.7% 30.7% 17.5% 46.4% 33.2% 12.2% 8.2% 49.2% 41.0% 7.7% Abela Grech Don't Know None KURT SANSONE ROBERT Abela's trust rating has sunk to its lowest level at 46.6% since becoming Prime Minister in January, a Malta- Today survey shows. This is the first time that Ab- ela's rating went below the 50% mark in a contest that now pits him against newly-elected Na- tionalist Party leader Bernard Grech. Grech's trust rating, his first as PN leader, stands at 30.9%. The trust gap between the Prime Minister and Opposition leader has narrowed to almost 16 points, the closest it has ever been between the leaders of the two major parties since Octo- ber 2017. In a survey carried out last month, when Grech was still a candidate in the PN leader- ship race, the gap between the two leaders stood at almost 20 points. Since September, Abela's trust rating when compared to Grech decreased by five points, while Grech lost one point. Abela vs Grech Abela beats Grech among men and women but the Prime Minister has a stronger lead among female voters. The Prime Minister also trounces Grech across all age groups but differences are less pronounced then when Adrian Delia was PN leader. The largest gap between them (almost 24 points) is among young voters aged between 18 and 35. Abela receives the trust of 45% of young voters against Grech's 21.4%. The gap narrows progressive- ly in the other age groups with the closest being among those aged 65 and over where Abela leads by eight points. On a regional basis, Abela leads in five of the six regions but loses his stratospheric trust in the traditional Labour strongholds in the South-East and Southern Harbour. In the South-Eastern region, which includes Marsaskala, Żejtun, Birżebbuġa and the vil- lages around the airport, Abela enjoys a trust rating of 53.1%. This represents a drop of al- most 20 points from the Sep- tember survey. In the Southern Harbour re- gion, which includes the Cot- tonera, Fgura, Żabbar, Paola and Valletta, Abela receives a trust rating of 52.7%, a decrease of seven points. The Prime Minister's below par performance in these two regions does not appear to be a direct result of Grech's ascent to the PN throne, suggesting disquiet within the Labour Par- ty's rank and file. Grech only manages a trust rating of 16.3% in the South-Eastern region and 27.2% in the Southern Har- bour – almost the same as last month. Abela has better performanc- es in Gozo and the Western re- gion (includes Żebbuġ, Siġġie- wi, Rabat, Attard, Lija and Balzan). On the sister island, the Prime Minister registers a trust rating of 54.8%, while in the Western region he captures the support of 55%. But Abela's trust plummets in the Northern region (includes Mellieħa, Mosta, Naxxar and St Paul's Bay), where he receives the support of 26.4%. This is the only region where his rival emerges ahead. Grech enjoys the trust of 39.1% in the Northern region. Ironically, Grech's best per- formance is in Gozo where he enjoys a trust level of 45.2%, reversing a trend of poor per- formances registered by his PN predecessor. In the Northern Harbour re- gion (includes Qormi, Birkir- kara, Sliema, Swieqi, Hamrun and San Ġwann) Abela scores a trust rating of 46.1% against Grech's 36.3%. Grech and mid-term blues The numbers suggest that Grech's election as PN leader has stirred the waters. In deep contrast with his predeces- sor, Grech retains the trust of 73.4% of those who voted PN in the last general election. Even if these are still early days for Grech, it appears that he has started consolidating the 2017 PN vote, something Delia was unable to achieve over three years. But Grech's modest perfor- mance may not be the Prime Minister's only concern. Abe- la could be suffering the con- sequences of the electorate's mid-term blues with the La- bour administration. General concern on job se- curity and incomes as a direct result of the COVID-19 pan- demic coincide with the ad- ministration's half-way point, making this a toxic cocktail for Abela. This, coupled with govern- ment's lacklustre handling of the coronavirus crisis in elder- ly care homes, may explain the narrowing trust gap between both leaders in the older age groups. Of consolation for Abela is that his standing among young voters remains well ahead of his Nationalist rival but this category is also the one that displays the highest level of distrust in either politician. The Prime Minister's below par performance in these two regions does not appear to be a direct result of Grech's ascent to the PN throne, suggesting disquiet within the Labour Party's rank and file.