Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1298422
9 maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 14 OCTOBER 2020 ANALYSIS cluding the eighth, ninth, tenth, eleventh and twelfth districts, which includes the urban areas north of the harbour and in the northeast. The problem for the PN is that its re- gional decline, confirmed by recent local elections which saw Labour winning Sig- giewi from the PN, was particularly felt in Gozo, the western and south eastern regions. The new PN leader is aware that the party needs to recover votes in these regions to stand a chance of winning in future elections. Still, voters in these regions are far from homogenous, to the extent that Zebbug also elected vocal environmentalist Steve Zammit Lupi as an independent council- lor. The PN does face a problem with pro hunting rural voters who seem to shun the PN's association with vocal urban 'elites' who resent hunting. In many ways the hunting issue does accentuate the conflict between different categories of PN voters, and Abela may well be bank- ing on the revulsion felt in PN's urban strongholds to forestall any recovery in the rural strongholds. The latest Malta- Today survey confirms the regional di- vide, with Bernard Grech recovering the PN's majority in the northern region and among tertiary-educated voters but mak- ing more limited gains in Gozo, the west and the south east where Labour retains its strong majority. 5. The Spring hunting referendum con- firmed strength of the 'hobbies' alliance but was still a near-miss for eNGOS, which left Muscat worried about the future While the Spring hunting referendum was a near-miss for the anti-hunting lobby despite the pro hunting stance of both the PN and PL, the result also con- firmed the strength of an alliance which united hobbyists, ranging from fireworks to motorsports, which ultimately carried the day. The referendum also registered a higher turnout in districts favourable to hunting than in districts with strong anti-hunt- ing majorities, confirming that hunters were stronger when it came to mobilise voters. Yet despite helping the hunting lobby secure their victory, former Labour leader Joseph Muscat was very careful in reaching out to no voters in the referen- dum aftermath, to the extent that he de- cisively stopped the hunting season pre- maturely after a protected bird was shot down in the grounds of a private school. This suggests that while Labour invested heavily in its alliance with hunters, Mus- cat understood that society was changing and that his party could not afford to lose touch with segments of its own more ed- ucated, cosmopolitan and environmen- tally sensitive voters. Yet with that segment already alienated by widespread corruption and the econ- omy taking a dip because of COVID-19, new Labour leader Robert Abela may be more disposed on unleashing 'culture wars' on hunting and migration which serve both to cement Labour's appeal to redneck voters, but also to disorient the opposition by exposing its own internal conflicts. 6. Labour is more trusted by hunters. They may never go back to the PN Due to the composition of its own electoral bloc, which includes a strong anti-hunting segment, the PN can nev- er offer hunters the same sense of secu- rity which Labour does. Even if the PN speaks about a need for a more balanced approach, it will still be walking on a tight-rope, with some of its most vocal supporters always calling for a stronger stance on hunting. Anger at the agreement to dish land at Miżieb and l-Aħrax to hunters was so palpable that pressure on the PN to com- mit itself against renewing the agreement after its three-year expiry date is bound to intensify. This raises the question on whether the party should work out a dif- ferent path of recovery aimed at young- er more educated voters, some of which were seduced by Muscat's social liberal- ism and moderate approach, but which were disoriented by the industrial scale corruption exposed in recent months and by Abela's pandering to arrogant lobbies. Still the PN is bound to be wary of any further losses in rural Malta while Labour may already be working out a strategy to retain its appeal among younger educated voters, for example by co-opting Miriam Dalli to the cabinet. Yet Dalli's image may suffer if she supports the Miżieb land gr- ab. 7. Hunting dents Labour's support among hip, educated and young voters While hunting has proved to be a more problematic issue for the PN, the PL's electoral base may be less homogenous than before and includes both left-wing critics who resent their party's appease- ment of anti-environmental lobbies and also floating voters who voted for Muscat to secure a change in government which cannot be taken for granted. Neither can Labour afford to ignore new constituencies of voters whose 'al- ternative' lifestyle as cyclists and trekkers, and values on the environment and ani- mal rights, conflict with the pretensions and tactics of the hunting lobby. One of the reasons why Labour won in 2013 was its 'sexy' image which took such voters in consideration by for example committing the party to ban circuses. The aesthetics of Labour's association with gun-toting rednecks may provoke the revulsion of these voters. The Miżieb and Aħrax land grab rep- resents a unique opportunity for the PN to reach out to these voters but to keep them on board it will have to change. The latest MaltaToday survey still shows the PN at its weakest in the 18 to 35 bracket, but it also shows that 18% in this bracket are intent on not voting. An alliance be- tween enlightened conservatives, liberals and some progressives may contain the seeds of a counter-hegemony to Labour's electoral dominance. In the absence of an effective third par- ty, these voters may well swell the ranks of abstainers if the PN turns its back on them by refusing to commit itself to re- claim Miżieb and Aħrax. cunning is Abela's Mizieb plan?