Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1361479
8 NEWS ANALYSIS maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 14 APRIL 2021 Why is Labour's lead so unassailable? THE latest MaltaToday survey is definitely bad news for the Nationalist Party. Despite their 26,000-vote gap, down from 35,000 in 2017, the gap could increase to near 2017 levels if respondents who trust Robert Abela more than Bernard Grech vote Labour, a not unlikely pros- pect considering the increasing- ly presidential style adopted by parties in Maltese elections. Abela enjoys a trust which is 5 points higher than his party's level of support, while Grech is just as popular as his own party, which means that Labour has more room for growth in the next months than the PN does. And while 5% of PL voters in 2017 trust Grech more than Ab- ela, 7% of PN voters in the same election trust Abela more than Grech. Although when it comes to voting intentions the PN does benefit from a small shift in its favour, the trust rating results suggests that if all those who trust Abela more than Grech were to vote PL, Labour could actually increase its 2017 major- ity. This suggests that in a presi- dential style election campaign, Abela will start with a significant advantage. And while the gap between the parties now stands at 6 points, the gap between the two lead- ers is at 11 points. Additionally, the PN is making little inroads among electorally strategic co- horts like younger voters, the post-secondary educated and Gozitans; and its gains are mainly limited in its northern strongholds and among the ter- tiary-educated. In short, while Grech has re- grouped the PN and benefitted from an initial trust boost, he has not advanced to the next level that of winning back over a sub- stantial percentage of 2017 La- bour voters. Moreover a 9-point decline in voters who trust nei- ther leader from last month, resulted in a 7-point increase in Abela's trust rating, yet another clear indication of favourable trend for Labour and its leader. So how on earth is Labour win- ning with such a huge margin after all that has happened in the past month? The surge in COVID cases after Christmas was a major problem for Abela. But decisive action restored his credibility by showing leadership in difficult times Abela had seen trust dropping from 48% in November to 40% in March. The decline reflected a surge in COVID-19 cases after Christmas, which was initially met with hesitation on wheth- er to impose a soft lockdown or not. Abela's previous decla- rations, downplaying the risk of a second wave, also came back to haunt him as the Opposition pressed on this issue. Despite the ongoing hardships experienced by businesses forced to close down, voters appear to have appreciated the change of tack by the Prime Minister, who has now adopted a more cautious approach to the eventual lifting of restrictions. Moreover Malta's high vacci- nation rate may have also boost- ed optimism and made the soft lockdown more bearable. And as past surveys have shown, vot- ers tend to rally behind national leaders during national emer- gencies. Abela himself had bene- fitted from a surge in trust rating during the first lockdown. The fluctuations in Abela's trust rating during the pandemic suggests that the issue may re- turn to haunt Abela if restrictions are lifted carelessly resulting in another surge of cases, possibly triggered by new variants. But if Abela sticks to the more prudent approach, which characterised his decisions in the past weeks, he may be in a position to benefit from another boost in popularity triggered by the feelgood factor resulting from the restoration of normality. Abela's precarious balancing act on rule of law issues, has so far paid off in electoral terms The arrest of Keith Schembri on the basis on an inquiry trig- gered by Simon Busuttil's 2017 allegation on kickbacks from Brian Tonna and the Progress Press payments to Allied direc- tors, has not dented Labour's support. Neither was Abela penalised by the explosive revelation that MacBridge, a company identi- fied as a client of Keith Schem- bri and Konrad Mizzi's secret company companies, belonged to Cheng Chen, the chief nego- tiator in the sale of the Delimara power station to Shanhgai Elec- tric Power. This suggests that Abela has managed to distance himself from his predecessor's adminis- tration without going the extra mile of disowning Joseph Muscat and ordering an investigation of all the deals involving Schembri. This balancing act remains a precarious one, especially if more inquiries are concluded which further expose the level of corruption under Muscat's watch. But so far Abela has managed to retain the loyalty of Muscat's fan base by sounding hawkish in his exchange with the Opposi- tion, while benefitting from the good will of M.O.R. voters, giv- ing him the benefit of the doubt in view of police action against some of the culprits. What is sure is that voters have not deserted Labour de- spite clear indications of wrong doing at the highest levels of government. One reason is that corruption and rule of law issues are still eclipsed by bread-and- butter issues, which remain the primary consideration of most voters. But Abela may have to thread carefully. While voters may be giving him the benefit of the doubt, he still has to earn their full trust. Abela may be postpon- ing an inevitable reckoning with his predecessor, and trust in Abela may be more condition- al than that displayed towards Muscat before 2017. In this sense, Abela's hold on the elec- torate may be more precarious and one grounded in a choice There is no other way to look at it: as things stand Labour is heading to another landslide similar to that in 2013 and 2017. Why has Labour retained its lead despite a global pandemic and a string of arrests and revelations that shook the country to the core? asks James Debono