Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1361479
9 maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 14 APRIL 2021 NEWS ANALYSIS unassailable? between him and the Opposi- tion leader. The Opposition still struggles to project itself as an alternative government Bernard Grech has reunited his party, and surveys dispel a Labour attempt to wedge a rift in the PN by portraying him as part of the establishment which dethroned Adrian Delia. In fact this month's survey shows Grech scoring his best ever trust rating. Yet despite these gains among the Nationalist cohort, Grech still needs time to start con- necting with electorally strate- gic categories and to present a new team, which clearly conveys the message that the PN has changed and is ready to govern. One major factor in surveys is that respondents are pragmat- ically choosing between what they consider as the two viable options. This means that voters who may be increasingly critical of Abela and Labour would still express a preference for them simply because they still do not perceive the opposition as a gov- ernment-in-waiting. This may explain the dissonance between survey results showing Labour ahead by a substantial lead and greater disgruntlement with re- gards to Labour's style of gov- erning. In short, Labour is increasingly a coalition of die-hard support- ers who would support their party in any case and a segment, which is increasingly critical but not ready to change the coun- try's government at this junc- ture. The PN has not stopped its haemorrhage of voters even among its restricted cohort of 2017 voters, which suggests that despite his divisive antics, Abela still appeals to a segment of former PN voters 7% of PN voters who voted for Simon Busuttil's party in 2017 now trust Abela more than Grech. 4% of this already re- stricted segment has already de- cided on voting for Labour. This suggests that the small inroads Grech is making among Labour voters are being offset by a par- allel shift of voters from the PN to Labour. Like Muscat before him, Abela manages to appeal to a segment of Nationalist voters. One possible reason for this is that Abela benefits from the power of incumbency, with La- bour holding leverage over pa- tronage strings. Another possible reason is that despite being knocked down by scandal, Labour is increasingly perceived as a natural party of government. By moving to the political centre and on some issues to the right, Labour has outflanked the PN gaining a foothold among socially liberal but economically conservative voters. This includes rent-seek- ers with a PN history who have found new pastures under La- bour as well as beneficiaries of policies and permits which are ruining the Maltese landscape. And while this has created some disgruntlement among some Labour voters, the PN remains off limits for most of them. So far, instead of seeking new pastures, these voters either abstain or reluctantly continue supporting Labour. The ques- tion is, for how long will they vote with a peg on their nose? 40% of under-35s remain un- committed, but so far they are not shifting towards the PN 20% of voters under-35 trust neither leader, while 17% are in- tent on not voting. Nearly 40% are either undecided on who to vote for, or would abstain. On one hand this suggests the out- come of the election may be im- pacted by any surge in support for the PN or possibly a third party, in this category. The high level of indecision in this age group suggests that campaign- ing by both parties in the next months may still change the outcome of the election. But the survey still suggests that Labour has more room to grow in this category than the PN. For while 37% of these young voters would vote PN, 41% trust Abela. On the other hand the PN is more popular than Grech in this category. While 21% would vote PN, on- ly 18% of younger voters trust Grech more than Abela. Tellingly, despite indications of disgruntlement with the po- litical system evident in the high level of abstention in this cate- gory, only 1% in this category opted for ADPD. This suggests that while younger voters may be more volatile than older age groups, even here Labour re- tains an edge over its competi- tors. One reason could be that a segment of younger voters are more likely to appreciate social reforms like the proposed de- criminalisation of cannabis. Another reason is that the PN is not considered trustworthy enough on issues like the envi- ronment where Labour may by facing problems with another segment of younger voters. But it could also be a reflec- tion of the strength of Labour's corporate image, a strong albeit manipulative online presence, and an identification with La- bour's aspirational message, which departs from the party's more communitarian past. In contrast, the survey indi- cates that Labour is facing its greatest problem among the 36- 50 age group, where both Grech and the PN enjoy a small ad- vantage over Abela and Labour. This may reflect the greater in- securities and anxieties faced by middle-aged voters in the mid- dle of their working life and a greater likelihood of them expe- riencing the negative financial impact of the pandemic. It remains to be seen whether this shift among middle-aged voters is a statistical fluke or represents a new trend among a category, which includes par- ents struggling to make ends meet. If the trend is sustained it may well signify a reversal of fortunes considering Labour's historic role in offering this cat- egory greater stability and sup- port.