Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1363129
12 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 18 APRIL 2021 NEWS JUDGING by the results of the surveys published last week, La- bour leader Robert Abela is on track to renew Labour's mandate for another five years. This may well turn the next election in a boring affair, with the outcome already determined months be- fore the election itself. What remains unclear is whether Bernard Grech will manage to decrease the gap and by how much. Grech will probably stay on to fight an- other day if he substantially reduces the gap, but his party will be thrown back into chaos if Labour is confirmed with the same margin again as in 2017. The MaltaToday survey shows that the gap between the two parties has decreased to 6 points, but the gap between the two leaders is now at 11 points. In short, if all those who trust Abela more than they trust Grech vote Labour, Grech's nightmare scenario – that of a repeat of 2013 and 2017 – will materialise and he may have no choice but to resign. Will Grech reduce the gap? While Grech has successfully completed the first stage of his mission as leader, that of reu- niting his party and recovering the support of Delia critics, he still has not made any tangible progress in the essential second stage of closing the gap with inroads among Labour voters from the past two elections, es- pecially among switchers who deserted the PN in 2013. As things stand, the reduced gap between the parties is not the result of any significant shift to the PN but of the emer- gence of a category of voters who remain uncommitted about either Abela or Grech. This suggests that Abela's road to recovery depends on Grech's ability in the next months to attract Labour vot- ers who may be dithering but still give Abela the benefit of the doubt. One major question, which cannot be measured by surveys, is how strong the at- tachment of voters to Abela is. For if the hold is precarious, it may well be the case that a strong campaign by the PN can make a difference. Choosing the right strategy This raises one big strategic issue for the PN: in its bid to reduce the gap should the par- ty become more moderate, or more hawkish in its attack on Robert Abela's rule of law cre- dentials? In his bid to appeal to M.O.R. Labour voters who still have a favourable impression of Ab- ela, Grech may either become more forceful in exposing Ab- ela as Muscat's clone, or more "moderate" by recognising some positive changes, while remaining vigilant and expect- ing more results and investiga- tions. The other question is how far should the PN go in seeking vindication for its anti-corrup- tion stance in 2017, or whether to recognise that this will be hard act to stage now that Jo- seph Muscat has resigned. For while the 2017 election was effectively a referendum on Muscat – who was judged on the facts which were available at that time – the next election will be more about whether Robert Abela deserves a man- date of his own, possibly one which would further weaken the hold of his predecessor on the party. Towards a normal election? One significant change from 2017 is that while former PN leader Simon Busuttil ques- tioned the legitimacy of his adversary as the country's PM with little evidence but enough reason, Grech will be facing an interlocutor who was not directly implicated in Pan- amagate. This lends itself to a more 'normal' contest where parties compete on policies and leadership style, with the rule of law issue remaining an important but not exclusive is- sue. Yet the PN or some elements within it may be tempted to seek a radicalisation of the con- test in an attempt to depict La- bour as a criminal organisation not worthy of governing the country. The party may well end up presenting a 'good cop bad cop' strategy, with Grech retaining an inclusive pitch while unleashing his Rottweil- ers to tear Abela's credentials to shreds. But keeping a balance be- tween two parallel strategies is easier said than done. It will be a hard act to sustain if Abela keeps his distance from Muscat and investigations related to corruption allegations against Keith Schembri and Konrad Mizzi proceed. The problem for Abela in this scenario is that in his bid to mobilise hard- core supporters, he may end up paying homage to his prede- cessor in a way which alienates middle-of-the-road voters who Amid persistent rumours of a November election, Bernard Grech knows his future is at stake if he fails to substantially reduce the gap with Labour. With so little time left, how can he pull it around? JAMES DEBONO asks An election to determine In reality, so far Grech has accomplished what should have been achieved in the first two years in opposition. Time is definitely not on his side PHOTO JAMES BIANCHI