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13 maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 26 JANUARY 2022 OPINION Tatsiana Kulakevich Tatsiana Kulakevich is Assistant Professor of instruction at School of Interdisciplinary Global Studies, affiliate professor at the Institute on Russia, University of South Florida U.S. President Joe Biden said on Jan. 19, 2022, that he thinks Russia will invade Ukraine, and cautioned Russian president Vladimir Putin that he "will re- gret having done it," following months of building tension. Russia has amassed an estimat- ed 100,000 troops along its bor- der with Ukraine over the past several months. In mid-January, Russia began moving troops into Belarus, a country bordering both Russia and Ukraine, in preparation for joint military exercises in Febru- ary. Putin has issued various secu- rity demands to the U.S. before he draws his military forces back. Putin's list includes a ban on Ukraine from entering NA- TO, and agreement that NATO will remove troops and weapons across much of Eastern Europe. There's precedent for taking the threat seriously: Putin al- ready annexed the Crimea por- tion of Ukraine in 2014. Ukraine's layered history of- fers a window into the complex nation it is today — and why it is continuously under threat. As an Eastern Europe expert, I highlight five key points to keep in mind. What should we know about Ukrainians' relationship with Russia? Ukraine gained independence 30 years ago, after the fall of the Soviet Union. It has since strug- gled to combat corruption and bridge deep internal divisions. Ukraine's western region gen- erally supported integration with Western Europe. The country's eastern side, meanwhile, favored closer ties with Russia. Tensions between Russia and Ukraine peaked in February 2014, when violent protesters ousted Ukraine's pro-Russian president, Viktor Yanukovych, in what is now known as the Revolution of Dignity. Around the same time, Rus- sia forcibly annexed Crimea. Ukraine was in a vulnerable position for self-defense, with a temporary government and un- prepared military. Putin immediately moved to strike in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. The armed con- flict between Ukrainian govern- ment forces and Russia-backed separatists has killed over 14,000 people. Unlike its response to Crimea, Russia continues to officially de- ny its involvement in the Donbas conflict. What do Ukrainians want? Russia's military aggression in Donbas and the annexation of Crimea have galvanized public support for Ukraine's Western leanings. Ukraine's government has said it will apply for European Union membership in 2024, and also has ambitions to join NATO. Ukrainian President Volod- ymyr Zelenskyy, who came to power in 2019, campaigned on a platform of anti-corruption, economic renewal and peace in the Donbas region. In September 2021, 81% of Ukrainians said they have a neg- ative attitude about Putin, ac- cording to the Ukrainian news site RBC-Ukraine. Just 15% of surveyed Ukrainians reported a positive attitude towards the Russian leader. Why is Putin threatening to invade Ukraine? Putin's decision to engage in a military buildup along Ukraine is connected to a sense of impu- nity. Putin also has experience dealing with Western politicians who champion Russian interests and become engaged with Rus- sian companies once they leave office. Western countries have im- posed mostly symbolic sanctions against Russia over interference in the 2020 U.S. presidential elections and a huge cyberattack against about 18,000 people who work for companies and the U.S. government, among other trans- gressions. Without repercussions, Putin has backed Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko's brutal crackdown on mass protests in the capital city, Minsk. In several instances, Putin has seen that some leading West- ern politicians align with Rus- sia. These alliances can prevent Western countries from forging a unified front to Putin. Former German chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, for example, advocated for strategic coopera- tion between Europe and Russia while he was in office. He later joined Russian oil company Ros- neft as chairman in 2017. Other senior European politi- cians promoting a soft position toward Russia while in office in- clude former French Prime Min- ister François Fillon and former Austrian foreign minister Karin Kneissl. Both joined the boards of Russian state-owned compa- nies after leaving office. What is Putin's end game? Putin views Ukraine as part of Russia's "sphere of influence" – a territory, rather than an in- dependent state. This sense of ownership has driven the Krem- lin to try to block Ukraine from joining the EU and NATO. In January 2021, Russia ex- perienced one of its largest an- ti-government demonstrations in years. Tens of thousands of Russians protested in support of political opposition leader Alex- ei Navalny, following his deten- tion in Russia. Navalny had re- cently returned from Germany, where he was treated for being poisoned by the Russian govern- ment. Putin is also using Ukraine as leverage for Western powers lifting their sanctions. Current- ly, the U.S. has various political and financial sanctions in place against Russia, as well as poten- tial allies and business partners to Russia. A Russian attack on Ukraine could prompt more diplomatic conversations that could lead to concessions on these sanctions. The costs to Russia of attacking Ukraine would significantly out- weigh the benefits. While a full scale invasion of Ukraine is unlikely, Putin might renew fighting between the Ukrainian army and Rus- sia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine. Why would the US want to get involved in this conflict? With its annexation of Crimea and support for the Donbas con- flict, Russia has violated the Bu- dapest Memorandum Security Assurances for Ukraine, a 1994 agreement between the U.S., United Kingdom and Russia that aims to protect Ukraine's sover- eignty in exchange for its com- mitment to give up its nuclear arsenal. [Over 140,000 readers rely on The Conversation's newsletters to understand the world. Sign up today.] Putin's threats against Ukraine occur as he is moving Russian forces into Belarus, which also raises questions about the Krem- lin's plans for invading other neighboring countries. Military support for Ukraine and political and economic sanctions are ways the U.S. can make clear to Moscow that there will be consequences for its en- croachment on an independent country. The risk, otherwise, is that the Kremlin might under- take other military and politi- cal actions that would further threaten European security and stability. 5 things to know about why Russia might invade Ukraine – and why the US is involved Russia forcibly annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, establishing new Ukraine and Russian borders