Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1448619
14 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 6 FEBRUARY 2022 NEWS Ukraine, a tinderbox waiting to explode What does Vladimir Putin really want and how close are we to a war, which could represent the end of the world, as we know it? James Debono tries to answers 10 questions everyone is asking 1. What triggered the current crisis? A significant deployment of around 100,000 troops along Russia's Ukraine's border and significantly in Belarus – which also shares a border with Ukraine and is in striking dis- tance of Ukrainian capital Kyiv – has been interpreted in West- ern capitals as a prelude to an invasion of the Ukraine. Russia claims that the troops in Belarus have been deployed for already scheduled military exercises and insist that it is simply reacting to NATO's ex- pansion on its borders. Most experts concur that a full-scale invasion, followed by an occu- pation of most or all of Ukraine, would require than Russia has currently assembled but it could be enough to annex the Russian speaking Donbass re- gion, which is already run by separatists. 2. What is Russia 'officially' demanding? While busy amassing troops within striking distance of Kyiv, Vladimir Putin blames the West for the escalation insisting that his country simply wants "legal guarantees" for its security. The Russian formal demands are not limited to vetoing Ukraine's membership in NA- TO but also foresee the remov- al of any troops or weapons de- ployed to countries that entered NATO after 1997, including Poland and the Baltic states. Russia has also demanded that NATO does not hold drills without previous agreement with Russia in the Ukraine, Eastern Europe, in Caucasus countries such as Georgia or in Central Asia. The Russia document which has been rejected by NATO also calls for a new agreement with the US meant to pull back any short- or medium-range missile systems out of reach of its borders, replacing the previ- ous intermediate-range nuclear forces (INF) treaty that the US left in 2018. 3. But what does Vladimir Pu- tin really want? The build-up of troops cou- pled with the veto on the sover- eign right of Eastern European nations to choose their alliances risks formalising a new Russian sphere of influence over East- ern Europe and a resurrection of some form of closer union with the Ukraine and Belarus. In July, Putin penned a 5,000-word essay arguing that Ukraine is part of "historical Russia" and that the two coun- tries were "essentially the same historical and spiritual space." The article draws on historical ties between the two countries; dating back to the medieval kingdom of the Rus centered on Kyiv and including parts of Rus- sia and Belarus. Ukraine also harbours a Rus- sian-speaking majority in the eastern part of the country and since the collapse of the Soviet Union, which saw the country selling its public assets to cor- rupt elites, the country has al- ternated between pro Russian governments and pro western ones. Putin's article fanned fear that Russia's ultimate goal is to keep Ukraine with its sphere of in- fluence either by annexing the Donbass region, or forcing the country in its entirety to return to the Russian fold. The question is whether Pu- tin is using troops to bring the West to the negotiating table or whether Russia is planning some form of military action – whether a small-scale invasion in eastern Ukraine or a full- scale invasion of the country. Putin may well be amassing troops to test western resolu- tion, banking on divisions be- tween hawks and doves while presenting a tall order of de- mands, which gives him room for a diplomatic exit. But to lend credence to the threat he poses, Putin may be tempted to make incursions in the Eastern Ukraine. In so do- ing he could be banking on Eu- rope's reluctance in escalating a crisis just as it is emerging from a pandemic, with the ultimate aim of securing a commitment that Ukraine won't ever join NATO. 4. Is Russia justified in fearing NATO on its doorstep? Russia shares its longest border on the west with the Ukraine. It was from this di- rection that Nazi troops invad- ed the USSR in 1941 in a war, which cost 27 million Soviet lives, which makes it the cost- liest war in human history. And while Kyiv had valiantly resisted the Germans, the Ukrainian far right still pays homage to Nazi collaborators. Russia compares NATO ex- pansion on its doorstep to the deployment of Russian nukes in Cuba in 1962. Back then it was Russia which had to back off to avoid a nuclear war. For the Russians, Ukraine's drift towards NATO is tan- tamount to Mexico joining a Russian led alliance with troops and weapons just over the fence from Texas. Perversely Russia justifies its imperial ambitions by citing precedents created by the US in Latin America, which for decades it has regarded as its backyard, and the Middle East including the illegal inva- sion of Iraq. In short Putin is claiming Russia's right to have its backyard. 5. Does Ukraine need NATO for protection? For pro-western politicians in the Ukraine, NATO member- ship is the ultimate guarantee for the country's independence from Moscow. The fears are grounded in Russia's constant meddling in Ukrainian politics, the annexa- tion of Crimea in 2013 and the declaration of self-proclaimed republics by Russian-backed separatists in two regions in eastern Ukraine, Donetsk and Luhansk, known as the Don- bass. From 1994 the country was led by pro Russian strongman Leonid Kuchma, whose corrup- tion and plans to abduct a jour- nalist were exposed in record- ings leaked in 2000. The resulting protests were suppressed but resentment re-erupted in the "Orange Rev- olution" after vote-rigging by Kuchma's designated successor, Viktor Yanukovych, in the 2004 presidential election. This led to the election Western-leaning Viktor Yushchenko, whose ten- ure combined some economic growth with rising inequality, which led to the return of the Moscow friendly Yanukovych in 2010. In December 2013, Yanuk- ovych cancelled plans to sign an agreement bringing the coun- try closer to the EU after Putin proposed a customs union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan instead. Yanukovych's move prompted protests in Kyiv, which led to his ousting. In 2014 Russia annexed Crimea a largely Russian-speak- ing peninsula. The Kremlin justified its invasion claiming that they acted to support a ref- erendum in favour of re-joining Russia but the US and the EU, said the referendum, which oc- curred after troops invaded, was