Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1449240
9 NEWS maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 9 FEBRUARY 2022 ing these voters – the consistency of the non-voting block over the past year is a reminder of the PN's communication fail- ures. Which party has the best chance of winning non-voters back? It remains very difficult to assess which party has the greatest chance of recover- ing support among non-voters. One positive indication for Labour, is that none of those intent on not voting prefer Grech to Abela, while 8% prefer Abela. So Labour has a greater chance of attracting non-voter, perhaps because La- bour is still seen as better suited to govern the country and voters find it very hard to see the PN as a government-in-waiting. Even among both tertiary-educated and among 16-35s, Abela – unlike Grech – is slightly more popular than his own party, showing Labour has more room to grow with both groups. But then 90% of all non-voters trust nei- ther Abela nor Grech, a widespread lack of trust that be the strongest indication that Malta is heading for an increase in the abstention rate. The MaltaToday surveys suggest the largest drop in non-voters in the past year happened in April 2021, coinciding with the PN's best result in the past year of sur- veys. In this particular survey, abstention remained very high among 16-35s (17%) even if it dropped among the tertiary-ed- ucated (11%). On the other Labour's lead was strong- est in the June 2021 survey when absten- tion fell to 9%. So a drop in non-voters has not consistently resulted in better re- sults for the PN. Now that the PN scored gains in the latest MaltaToday survey, it has still lost support among younger voters: among 16-35s, PN suppprt dropped 4 points amid a 5-point increase in abstention in this category. But the PN then increased its support by 3 points among the ter- tiary-educated, mirrored by a 3-point decrease in undecided voters in this same category. So the PN is finding it easier to lure back older tertiary educated voters, but faces greater difficulties among younger voters. Support for third parties The survey also suggests that ADPD enjoys its highest support among tertiary educated voters (5%) and younger vot- ers (3%). But while there is potential for growth for third parties in these two cate- gories which have the highest percentage of non-voters, voters are more inclined to protest against the status quo by not vot- ing at all. One reason for this is the absence of a dynamic third party which captures the imagination of voters. The problem in this case is that short of a dramatic fall in turnout, an increase in abstention will be relegated to the footnotes of history, while a vote for a third party or an inde- pendent candidate like Arnold Cassola may actually rock the boat. But votes have to be earned and in the absence of an alternative that inspires voters, these voters can also vote with their feet by staying at home. With an election outcome hardly in doubt and Labour set to win, more voters may be tempted to vote for a third party candidate, simply because the sacrifice of putting a peg on their nose to vote for the lesser evil will hardly matter. jdebono@mediatoday.com.mt Young and educated A profile of the Maltese political agnostic Who are the non-voters who keep the PN and PL guessing and will their numbers increase in the forthcoming election? · 9% of all MaltaToday Survey respondents say they will not be voting – but 60% of these non-voters voted back in 2017: 32% PN, 28% PL · 21% of all respondents trust neither Grech nor Abela · 34% of tertiary educated voters trust neither Grech nor Abela · 90% of current non-voters trust neither Grech nor Abela Feb 2021 Mar 2021 Apr 2021 May 2021 June 2021 July 2021 Sep 2021 Oct 2021 Nov 2021 Dec 2021 Jan 2022 Feb 2022 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 12.2% 19.8% 16.7% 13.3% 15.4% 17% 8.1% 16.8% 10.9% 11.1% 16% 15.4% 9.4% 15.1% 9% 8.4% 16.7% 11.6% 12.4% 17.5% 14.7% 12.3% 22.2% 22.6% 11.6% 24.6% 19.6% 11.4% 17.7% 15.4% 10.4% 13.6% 13.3% 9.4% 18.9% 15.7% All 16 to 35 Tertiary Percentage of non-voters over past year of surveys It seems that the younger and more educated you are… the more likely you are dissatisfied with the political class and the more likely you are to consider not voting