Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1457526
MALTATODAY SURVEY 9 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 6 MARCH 2022 N Harbour S Eastern S Harbour Western 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 39.9% 36.7% 18.1% 55.8% 16.3% 24.1% 56.0% 24.5% 18.4% 36.5% 32.2% 26.1% Which political party would you vote for if an election were to be held tomorrow? Overall PL 2017 PN 2017 Didn't vote 2017 New Voter Male Female 16-35 36-50 51-65 65+ Primary Secondary Post-Sec Tertiary Gozo Northern N Harbour S Eastern S Harbour Western 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 37.4% 30.0% 20.5% 8.5% 73.5% 14.8% 69.6% 18.7% 6.9% 9.9% 42.6% 29.7% 24.1% 20.2% 34.4% 7.5% 39.2% 30.0% 18.8% 9.5% 35.7% 30.1% 22.0% 7.5% 31.4% 24.5% 25.8% 12.3% 32.5% 27.2% 23.7% 14.5% 42.9% 31.3% 17.0% 43.5% 37.3% 14.9% 49.0% 31.2% 15.4% 46.1% 27.3% 14.0% 8.7% 36.3% 27.4% 25.7% 8.4% 23.3% 34.2% 27.4% 10.6% 33.6% 28.8% 26.9% 23.8% 35.0% 24.9% 11.9% 33.4% 37.0% 17.7% 9.3% 50.8% 17.8% 18.3% 9.3% 53.1% 25.9% 10.5% 8.4% 28.2% 32.7% 26.4% 9.5% PL PN ADPD Small parties Do not know Will not Vote -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 15-Mar-20 12-Apr-20 24-May-… 21-Jun-20 19-Jul-20 6-Sep-20 11-Oct-20 9-Nov-20 6-Dec-20 9-Jan-21 7-Feb-21 7-Mar-21 11-Apr-21 9-May-21 6-Jun-21 11-Jul-21 5-Sep-21 10-Oct-21 7-Nov-21 5-Dec-21 16-Jan-22 6-Feb-22 27-Feb-22 6-Mar-22 46.0% 49.1% 51.9% 47.8% 45.1% 40.3% 44.2% 39.2% 41.8% 44.8% 43.9% 43.3% 44.1% 36.2% 23.3% 23.5% 30.0% 32.4% 33.6% 32.6% 35.6% 29.3% 31.1% 27.3% 31.9% 28.6% 30.0% 1.0% 0.6% 1.2% 0.8% 0 0 0 0.6% 0.4% 0.6% 14.1% 14.5% 6.6% 13.9% 9.2% 13.5% 9.9% 17.3% 13.9% 20.5% 18.4% 7.2% 10.3% 18.2% 20.3% 13.8% 13.3% 8.1% 12.4% 11.4% 8.5% PL PN ADPD Small Parties Far-right Don't know Not Voting Historical voting polls The survey is the cumulative data set carried out between Monday 21st February 2022 and Friday 4th March 2022. 1220 respondents opted to complete the survey. Stratified random sampling based on region, age and gender was used to replicate the Maltese demographic. The estimated margin of error is 2.8% for a confidence interval of 95% for the overall results. Demographic and sub-group breakdowns have significantly larger margins of error. KURT SANSONE THE Labour Party ends the second week of the electoral campaign with 53.4% of support and a nine-point lead over the Na- tionalist Party, MaltaToday's rolling survey shows. The PN's support runs at 44.4%, while third parties collec- tively garner 2.2% of the vote. The extrapolat- ed result puts the gap between the two major parties at 27,265 votes, up from 22,645 last Sunday but short of the 35,000 gap in the 2017 election. The results are based on an expect- ed share of valid votes that equates to 85.7% of eligible voters. This is not the turnout figure but rather the basis on which an elec- tion is determined – valid votes cast. In the 2017 election, the turnout was 92.1% and the share of valid votes cast stood at 90.9%. This means that MaltaToday is project- ing a higher abstention rate than five years ago that appears to be impacting the PL slightly more than it does the PN. The raw data shows that the PL beats the PN across all age groups, among men and women and in three out of the six regions. Among young voters aged between 16 and 35, the PL's support stands at 31.4% and that of the PN's at 24.5%. Among pen- sioners, both parties score their best re- sults with the PL enjoying the support of 43.5% and the PN at 37.4%. Regions split in half On a geographical basis, the outcome is more balanced than the trust barometer, indicating that although Bernard Grech faces a trust deficit, people are still willing to support the PN. The PL wins in Gozo, the South-Eastern and Southern Harbour regions, while the PN captures the Northern, Northern Har- bour and the Western regions. The largest gaps between the parties are found in traditional Labour hinterland in the south and south east, where the PN continues to score very low. Shifts and abstentions The parties each experience a 4% share of their 2017 vote that shifts to the other side. Given the Labour Party's bigger share of the vote in 2017, this means there is a net movement of just over 1,400 votes from the PL to the PN. There are also 6% of 2017 PL voters who say they will not vote, which equates to just over 10,000 votes, and 6.9% of PN voters, equivalent to just over 9,000 votes, who will likewise stay at home. Among new voters, the PL registers 24.1% support, the PN 20.2% and small parties 1.5%. However, 34.4% of new vot- ers say they are uncertain who to vote for and 7.5% will not vote. Methodology The survey is the cumulative data set carried out between Monday 21 February 2022 and Friday 4 March 2022. 1,220 re- spondents opted to complete the survey. Stratified random sampling based on re- gion, age and gender was used to replicate the Maltese demographic. The estimated margin of error is 2.8% for a confidence interval of 95% for the overall results. De- mographic and sub-group breakdowns have significantly larger margins of error. Labour ahead by 27,000 votes as parties plateau MaltaToday is projecting a higher abstention rate than five years ago that appears to be impacting the PL slightly more than it does the PN 6% of 2017 PL voters who say they will not vote, which equates to just over 10,000 votes, and 6.9% of PN voters, equivalent to just over 9,000 votes, who will likewise stay at home