Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1458198
8 NEWS ANALYSIS maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 9 MARCH 2022 An election belittled by war? How the Russian invasion could impact election JAMES DEBONO Voters tend to value stability and look for strong leadership in tough times In moments of crisis triggered by events like the assassination of Daphne Caruana Galizia and the onset of the pandemic, sur- veys showed the public rallying behind Joseph Muscat and subse- quently Robert Abela. This is be- cause in turbulent times, people tend to avoid risk and prefer the devil they know to uncertainty. Moreover when it came to managing the pandemic, Robert Abela's government has earned the public's trust. In this sense rather than banking on a wave for change, the Opposition has to re- assure the public that it can offer stability and leadership. But vot- ers will also be asking which party leader has the best statesmanlike qualities to lead the country in a turbulent international climate. And while Abela benefits from incumbency, the reputation- al damage to the country in the past decade raises questions on Labour's credentials. Abela's par- ticipation in high-level EU meet- ings could reinforce his stand- ing locally. But in this role he is eclipsed by Roberta Metsola, who as President of the European Parliament not only participates in all high-level meetings, but voices continental outrage at the invasion. This inevitably boosts her local standing as a potential future prime minister. But abstention may grow as the war makes the campaign look frivolous and electoral promises harder to keep considering the unstable global scenario. As storm clouds gather on the economic horizon, extravagant manifesto commitments suggest that both major parties are in denial mode. The reality is that Malta is not insulated from what happens in the rest of the world and if the world economy con- tracts, Malta would also suffer. Throwing money at any problem may not be sustainable in the long term. Malta will also have to renegoti- ate its gas purchase agreement af- ter the fixed price agreement with Electrogas expires this year. This dissonance between the election carnival and a war in the heart of Europe may well make more vot- ers recoil in a way, which boosts abstention. Malta's migration 'problem' pales in comparison to the mas- sive flow of people fleeing from the Ukraine to Eastern Europe and this makes tough talk on immigration anachronistic Malta has made a strong case over the years for burden shar- ing which was mainly obstructed by the Visegrad group of Eastern European nations including Po- land who are now willingly open- ing their borders to the greatest influx since WW2. And while countries like Poland may now be more amenable to a burden sharing mechanism, this would also see Malta take its share of migrants from Ukraine. The risk is that the heavy strain posed by resettling millions of Ukrainians may end up reinforcing 'fortress Europe' despite the ongoing but largely overlooked tragedy in the Mediterranean. The crisis has al- so exposed the intellectual bank- ruptcy of the anti-immigrant far right which even locally includes a number of Putin apologists. This is a big blow to Labour's plan to turn Malta in playground for rich oligarchs. The war in Ukraine exposes the short-sightedness of an econom- ic model partly based on turning Malta into a playground for the global rich, particularly oligarchs from Russia who accounted for around a fourth of citizenships acquired under Malta's contro- versial citizenship by investment programme. In short, another highlight of Joseph Muscat's leg- acy, is now biting the dust. Abela's dilly-dallying before tak- ing the inevitable step of stopping applications from Russia was so far the Maltese government only serious misstep since the begin- ning of the crisis. And while gold- en passports schemes banked on the insecurities of oligarchs seek- ing a double insurance by cozying up to the regime at home while seeking a foothold in the west, the new sanctions regime now aimed at driving a wedge between Putin and oligarchs has dealt a lethal blow to the scheme. While the scheme may still thrive on inse- curities in other regions like the Middle East and to some extent post brexit UK, the current crisis has exposed the frailty of one of the few 'industries', which took root in Malta in the past decade. As Europe scrambles for alter- natives to Russian gas, LNG terminals like Malta's could become more common despite greater concern on dependen- cies on authoritarian regimes In the short term Europe will be seeking alternatives to Russian gas, possibly by relying more in gas from other markets supplied to offshore LNG terminals like the one in Delimara. It could al- so accelerate the drive towards hydrogen, as an alternative ener- gy source but much depends on whether this can be produced by renewables or by using more gas. It could also renew interests in possible fossil fuel deposits in the Mediterranean even if this would contradict climate change com- mitments. Russia's invasion of the Ukraine has overshadowed an election many regard as a foregone conclusion. So will more voters rally behind the incumbent in a time of crisis, or seek change to redress the reputational damage which came back to haunt us after the EU called on member states to stop selling passports to Russian oligarchs? Or will voters recoil at the dissonance between war and electoral fanfare to simply abstain?