MaltaToday previous editions

8 maltatoday | THURSDAY • 24 MARCH 2022 MALTATODAY SURVEY JAMES DEBONO MALTATODAY'S rolling survey has consistently given the PL a sure victory but the undecided may yet determine how big the gap will be. James Debono crunches some num- bers from the detailed results published on Sunday. The extrapolation in Malta- Today's electoral surveys are based on the assumption that on election day the 20% of re- spondents saying that they are still undecided will vote in the same way they did in 2017. Based on this methodological assumption surveys have con- sistently shown Labour win- ning by between 23,000 and 30,000 votes. But the margin could change if a significant number of un- decided voters do not follow this pattern and even more so if 2017 PN and PL voters follow different trajectories. So, what could change? A silent shift to Labour Undecided voters could be in transit from one party to the other but are not willing to de- clare their intention in a survey. One possibility is that Labour could end up benefitting from a third wave of switchers from the PN's vote cohort. There is a possibility that former PN vot- ers who now trust Abela more than Grech may end up voting Labour, despite saying that they are still undecided. One indication that this could be the case is that while 5.8% of PN voters in 2017 prefer Abela to Grech, only 3.7% of PN vot- ers in 2017 say that they will vote Labour. In contrast while 3.7% of PL voters will vote PN, 4.1% trust Grech. This suggests that Labour has slightly more space to grow than the PN. Moreover, among undecided voters, Abela is trusted by 24.6% and Grech by 11.9% which may well be an indication that the undecided tilt towards Labour. A silent shift to the PN Another possibility is that a larger segment of Labour vot- ers who presently say they are undecided may actually be in transit towards the PN but for whatever reason are not keen on declaring so in a survey. The survey shows that most undecided voters refused to choose between Abela and Grech. This included 46.6% of presently undecided voters who replied neither and 16.9% who were also undecided on which leader to trust. It is pos- sible that this segment includes a segment of disgruntled La- bour voters who are secretive about their voting intentions. But this could also be the case with former PN voters who are in transit. A silent shift to abstention The fact that nearly half of undecided voters distrust both major party leaders may be an indication that either these may end up joining the ranks of the abstainers. The survey already shows that 8% will not be vot- ing. But this number could be higher if undecided voters who trust neither leader join their ranks. It is also possible that a seg- ment of genuinely undecided voters who feel a civic duty to vote may end up turning up at the polling booth to vote for a third party or for an individual candidate that they like, with- out any consideration for parti- san allegiance. Labour's advantage among new voters Among new voters 40.3% are undecided. This is the highest rate of indecision among all categories included in the sur- vey. But less then 6% of new voters say they won't be voting. But while only 22.3% say that they will be voting Labour - just one point more than the PN - 33.6% of new voters, trust Abela in contrast to 21.6% who prefer Grech. This suggests that Labour has far more room to grow in this category than the PN. If all new voters who prefer Abela to Grech also vote Labour the gap could be higher than the one predicted in the survey extrap- olation. A gap determined by the undecided KURT SANSONE THE Labour Party is ahead of the Nation- alist Party with almost nine points as the electoral campaign comes to a close to- day, MaltaToday's rolling survey shows. The accumulated results as at 8pm on Wednesday 23 March, showed the La- bour Party with 53.3%, unchanged from the previous day, and the PN at 44.7%, an increase of 0.1 points over Tuesday. Third parties collectively registered 2%, a decrease of 0.1 points. The PL leads the PN by 26,798 votes. All changes remained statistically in- significant since they were well within the margin of error, which stood at 1.8% on a sample base of 2,887. The results have remained within a constant range for the length of the electoral campaign with minimal varia- tions registered. Malta Today's rolling survey contin- ued to project a lower turnout than the last general election. The share of valid votes stood at 87.1% on Wednesday, unchanged from the previous day. This was the first day since 14 March that the share of valid votes stopped its marginal upward trend, remaining unchanged over a 24-hour period. In the 2017 election, while 92.1% of eligible voters went out to vote, only 90.9% of eligible voters cast a valid vote. MaltaToday's survey is showing a de- cline of almost four points in valid votes cast. The trust barometer showed Robert Abela with a trust score of 44.1%, un- changed from the previous day. Bernard Grech registered a score of 31.1%, an upward movement of 0.2 points for the second consecutive day. The trust gap stood at 13 points. The share of those who trust none of the two leaders or are unsure was 24.8%. What we do A base survey with a sample size of 597 was released on Sunday 27 Febru- ary. This survey was continuously ad- journed every day. The latest data set includes a sample gathered between 21 February and 23 March. The daily tallies boosted the sample size and enabled us to re-calculate the data on progressively larger samples. Care was taken to ensure that daily samples are as representative as they can be of the general population, re- flecting gender, age, regional distribu- tion and past voting patterns. The results based on the accumulated tally comprising the previous day's re- sults were published between Tuesday and Friday at 8:30am on the MaltaTo- day home page. The last survey comprising the da- ta for the last day of the campaign will be released on maltatoday.com.mt on Thursday at 10pm. Labour leads PN by nine points on last day of electoral campaign MaltaToday rolling survey | PL 53.3%; PN 44.7%; Others 2%

• Cover