Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1462900
7 maltatoday | MONDAY • 28 MARCH 2022 ELECTION 2022 Will Metsola be the PN's messiah for a 2027 bid? JAMES DEBONO ROBERTA Metsola's incredible CV has inevita- bly boosted her stature as the best placed candi- date to take on Labour in 2027. But with Labour retaining its 2013 and 2017 majorities, it could verge on a mission impos- sible for Metsola to overturn Labour's majority next time round, as this would require a seis- mic shift. With such a massive margin, Metsola's best hope would be that of doing what Bernard Grech failed to do this time; substantially re- duce the gap between the parties. But would Metsola settle down for a long spell of leading her party from the opposition benches after stepping down from the heights of European politics? Like Grech before her, Metsola will only be able to take on the role of PN leader mid-way through the next legislature. This would re- quire a caretaker leader to keep the place for her to take. But this may well delay the reforms the party needs to re-invent itself as a viable coalition of liberals and conservatives, which can widen its appeal to voters who persist on voting Labour, despite corruption and the assassination of a journalist, Daphne Caruana Galizia. Still despite the odds pitted against her, it is Metsola who has the making of a future PN lead- er. Metsola's now-iconic refusal to shake hands with disgraced Prime Minister Joseph Muscat in his 2019 meeting with a 'rule of law' delega- tion from the EP, so- lidified her hawkish credentials and en- deared her with a PN sect loyal to the mem- ory of Daphne Carua- na Galizia. Re-elected in the 2019 European elections with a mas- sive 38,000 votes, she has managed to appeal to both sides of the PN di- vide, as a compe- tent, diligent and sober voice who did not shun Delia entirely. And crucially, she backed down from entering the fray by presenting herself as an alternative to Delia, effectively clearing the way for Ber- nard Grech, the man best placed to defeat Delia according to internal polls. Had Grech managed to reduce the gap, Met- sola would be in a much better position. She could have bided for her time. At 42 with four children still growing up, she could afford to wait to take her chance with the PN at a later stage in life. But with Grech failing dismally in his mission to reduce the gap, Metsola's name immediately pops up as the only saviour who can give her party some hope. But even had she wanted, Metsola is unable to participate in a leadership contest mandated by the party statute after the expected defeat, simply because she still has two years left in serving as EP president. So for Metsola to step in, Grech would need to stay on as caretaker to clear the path for his anointed successor. But that also depends on rivals not stepping in the way. And as past experience shows, PN members may well be swayed by a candidate who is not favoured by the party establishment as Adrian Delia showed in 2017. Moreover it cannot be taken for granted that Metsola is ready to serve immediately after the expiry of her term in EU politics. For a politi- cian who has courted and achieved EU success, running a party on the brink of extinction, riv- en by insurmountable factional and ideological divides, this could be too much of a gamble. Yet by not answering the call in the hour of need, it could even spell an end to any local ambitions. Running the PN would mean she has to rede- fine a party suffering from a chronic identity problem. Her European experience could mean she will want to articulate a more socially liber- al and continental vision. But can she commu- nicate as effectively with the working and lower middle-classes, which the PN needs to recover to have a chance of victory? Metsola has strayed away from local con- troversies except for the anti-corruption cru- sade, revealing little about her ideological in- clinations. Pragmatic and ambitious, she even turned a blind eye to the Bulgarian anti-corrup- tion movement, not to alienate Bulgaria's own EPP government and was despite repeatedly voting against references to abortion as an MEP she immediately committed respecting parlia- ment's position on this issue in her new role as President. Yet the legitimacy bestowed upon her by her European role, makes her the most formidable adversary Labour could face in 2027. But if the post of leader is still available for her in two years' time, Metsola will have to resign herself to a probable electoral defeat before having a more realistic chance in 2032. That could be too much waiting for Malta's most influential politician who currently at- tends European council meetings attended by Prime Ministers. Like Grech before her, Metsola will only be able to take on the role of PN leader mid-way through the next legislature. This would require a caretaker leader to keep the place for her to take And the reason for this is that the par- ty failed even the basic task of retaining all of its 2017 voters, let alone recover switchers lost in 2013. At the root of the problem is the PN's toxic brand, a fac- tor amplified by Labour's strong prop- aganda machine but which is mostly attributable to the party's reluctance in radically changing itself in to a modern popular party which can communicate with both working-class voters and the various segments of the middle class. In this sense, Grech's soft approach may well have come across as less divi- sive but his balancing act not to alienate any lobby by making bold proposals on issues like low wages and planning, has not captured the imagination of voters. And was it worth changing leader midway in this legislature when the result remained the same? While one may argue that the party risked losing with an even larger margin had Delia remained at the helm, this may well have left a residue of bad blood which further hampered the party's organisa- tional abilities. Moreover, the defeat risks re-opening the wound, with Delia supporters feel- ing vindicated. Even activists who ex- pected the PN to continue its anti-cor- ruption crusade with the same energy as before 2017 may also feel vindicat- ed, because the party has actually lost a segment of its 2017 voters. In such a scenario the party may be tempted to once again put the cart be- fore the horse, by choosing a new lead- er without addressing the existential threat it faces.