Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1474369
15 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 24 JULY 2022 NEWS – how could it end? A new cold war? Attard said that it's possible that a new cold war and new Iron Curtain will develop in Europe, with two belligerent and opposing blocs facing each other over a lengthy militarised border. "I envisage that EU and NA- TO countries will have to in- crease their defence spending for many years to come. A direct military confrontation of sorts between NATO and Russia cannot be excluded par- ticularly if chemical, biological, or, in extremis, tactical nuclear weapons are utilised in Ukraine or if the conflict spills over to any one of the NATO member countries." He recalled a similar situation when Lithuania, an EU and NATO member, initially did not allow sanctioned Russian goods to transit its territory on their way to Russia's Kalinin- grad exclave. "These circumstances creat- ed weeks of tension and test- ed Europe's resolve to contin- ue enforcing the sanctions on Russia, but thankfully were resolved without recourse to military solutions." Sustainable sanctions The war saw Western forc- es adopting a more economic type of warfare by imposing sanctions on Russia and Rus- sian individuals. Bartolo and Calleja Ragonesi agree that the sanctions have hurt the Russian economy, at least in the short term. But the future is more uncertain. "Russia will learn how to live with these sanctions one way or another," Bartolo said. "The West too, however, will learn how to live with these sanc- tions. But the EU must not make things worse for itself by turning the rest of the world against it." He pointed out that some Western companies have made huge investments in Russia. "Will they ever return? These companies will lose their mar- ket share in Russia and their void will be filled by others from other regions." Calleja Ragonesi added that Russia receives 47% of its rev- enue from energy exports. "Though there has been little evidence of sanction violations, some compromises have been made such as EU tankers con- tinuing to carry Russian oil." "Inflationary pressures as a result of the sanctions and Rus- sian allies propensity to con- tinue trading, long term may erode the sustainability of the sanctions." Is neutrality necessary? Being a member of the EU at the time of the war, questions were raised as to the extent Mal- ta could help Ukraine within the parameters of its constitutional neutrality. In fact, Malta sent humanitar- ian aid in the form of medicines to Ukraine, but not lethal weap- ons as have other countries in the EU. Within the EU there have been efforts to more deeply integrate security and defence policy such as through the Permanent Sruc- tured Cooperation in Defence, or PESCO. Malta had taken a 'wait and see' approach as it could vi- olate the neutrality clause. "Should we join PESCO?" Bar- tolo questions. "In today's New Cold War we still need to have good relations with as many different countries as possible, and neutrality should help us do that." Meanwhile, Attard believes that Malta ought to revisit its de- fence policy and military struc- ture. He said the army is not a police force or crivil protection organisation, and cannot be treated as such. "The defence of a neutral and small nation state such as ours that occupies a geostrategic po- sition right in the centre of the Mediterranean Sea and across major sea lines of communi- cation cannot be wished away, especially in times of turmoil or war." He mentioned that, up until 2013, Malta used to play an ac- tive role within the EU where defence and security policy was concerned, within the context of its neutrality. "I recall that at that time, we had a record number of Maltese officers and troops deployed overseas in various countries around the world, ranging from Georgia, Somalia, Uganda to Libya in support of European Security and Defence Policy." Attard pointed out that both the government of the day and the Armed Forces were selective on which EU missions to partic- ipate in, and under what condi- tions Malta was to participate. However, Attard said he does not believe that the notion of a fully fledged European Army will take off in the short or medi- um term so long as NATO con- tinues to exist. "Despite the political rhetoric within certain EU circles, I be- lieve that the Russian invasion of Ukraine shall dampen any en- thusiasm that existed to go down this road. The harsh reality today in Europe is that we are back to a new cold war where territorial defence has become paramount and where NATO, through its article five arrangements, pro- vides for the collective defence." "Why should these states set up a European Army with the pos- sibility of duplicating resources and incurring more costs when the economies are suffering as a consequence of the war in Ukraine?" nmeilak@mediatoday.com.mt Ukraine has been unable to exports tonnes of grain because of a Russian blockade of its Black Sea ports