Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1489031
4 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 25 DECEMBER 2022 NEWS Christmas Specials • Politics THE Nationalist Party last won an absolute majority in 2003 as a pro-EU coalition uniting lib- erals, conservatives and people who aspired for broader hori- zons for their children. This gave the party the edge despite ram- pant corruption, environmental degradation and cronyism. And while Labour remained strong in its heartlands, its anti-EU stance alienated young people and the tertiary-educated gave the PN the edge. The conservative lure Twenty years down the line, the Nationalist Party is increas- ingly restricted to a conservative core and is led by a lame duck leader who refused to go after being severely beaten in the polls in a campaign which clearly ex- posed his shortcomings in terms of depth and debating skills. The party may have rediscov- ered a sense of unity and purpose in opposing a timid reform of abortion laws aimed at protect- ing the life and health of moth- ers from grave jeopardy. But this stance may further alienate key demographics like the tertiary educated and younger voters, a large segment of which has al- ready opted at not voting in the last general election which saw the PN losing 12,000 votes from its 2017 tally. Moreover, disen- chanted Labourities preferred not voting to shifting PN, which explains why the PL lost 8000 votes from its 2017 tally. And despite a horrid track record on governance, Labour is more in tune with a country which is un-recognisable from the one it inherited in 2013. In short while the PN is entrenching itself as a minority, Labour under Abela has consolidated itself as a big tent party. One way out of the quandary would be for the PN to refashion itself as a broad conservative al- liance appealing to disenchanted socially conservative Labourites who like President George Vel- la and President Emeritus Marie Louise Coleiro Preca are ada- mant in opposing abortion. Yet history shows that Labour has a remarkable ability of retaining traditional voters while topping up this voting base with support from an assortment of strategic categories including social liber- als, LGBTIQ activists segments of the business class and even a large segment of floating voters. And even if this strategy is suc- cessful the PN risks importing a breed of voters averse to the European project, at the risk of alienating moderate voters. And the PN risks guilt by association if it is forced in to a culture war against feminists and liberals by an assortment of fascists, ultra conservatives and conspiracy theorists, which would be inev- itable if the pro-life movement opts to gather signatures for an abrogative referendum on the government's cautious abortion reform. For in a bid not to be drowned by voices to the right of the PN, Bernard Grech will be increasingly tempted to radi- calise his stance; as was evident in his misguided parliamentary speech mocking Andrea Pru- dente, a mother who lost her child. And even if the referen- dum is won by the conservative front, the PN will still suffer the fall out in terms of support from key demographics. And if the referendum is lost, the blow for the conservative forces would be even more devastating then the watershed divorce referen- dum. How Labour pulled the rug from under the PN's feet The other way out of the quan- dary would be for the PN to work hard to rebuild the coali- tion of voters which crowned its victory in 2013. Crucial to this would be for the party to accept internal pluralism on moral is- sues while presenting a vision for the country which appeals to segments of Labour and floating voters who want a correction of Labour's economic model. Yet even here the PN is faced with a changed Labour, one which is very much in tune with the as- pirations of the typical center- right vote. Moreover, the PN remains toxic for Labour's own left-wing critics. In fact the greatest threat to the PN's survival is Labour's ability to morph itself in to a National- ist lite party with a track record of managing the economy dur- ing a pandemic and a war. And if the PN continues ignoring the writing on the wall; its very sur- vival may be in question. And by persisting on leading the party after being trounced in an elec- tion in which he was clearly out- shone by Abela, Bernard Grech has further denied the party the crisis it needed to resolve its identity question. For what the party may need now is a clear choice between leaders; one between old school conservatism and a more liberal disposition anchored in Europe- an values. Yet the question remains; with the party still in a downward spiral: will anyone throw the name in the hat before the next election? The opportunity may well arise if the party fails to win three seats in the next MEP elections, a result which will trigger another confirmation vote for Grech. But can the par- ty afford a change of leadership again midway through this leg- islature and would anyone be even interested in drinking from the poisoned chalice in a viper's den? Bernard Grech: entrenching the PN's minority status Will the PN reinvent itself as a strong conservative party which can appeal to Labour's redneck vote, or will its newfound status condemn it to unelectability? Bernard Grech JAMES DEBONO