Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1494707
8 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 12 MARCH 2023 MALTATODAY SURVEY Labour crashes to its worst result ever as PN closes gap in wake of hospitals scandal CONTINUED FORM PAGE 1 He also ordered that the Gozo, St Luke's and Karin Grech hospitals be returned to the government. In the aftermath of the court rul- ing, parliament held an emergen- cy debate on the matter and the PN organised two protests. The deal that saw the transfer of the three public hospitals to Vi- tals Global Healthcare, an obscure private company, was struck in 2015. It was a flagship project of the Joseph Muscat administration but in 2018, the concession was transferred to Steward Healthcare after VGH failed to live up to its commitments. Steward also failed to fulfil its contractual obligations, which in- cluded the construction of a new state-of-the-art general hospital in Gozo and the refurbishment of St Luke's to be used for medical tourism. In 2018, then Opposition lead- er Adrian Delia filed a court case to have the contract rescinded and judgment was delivered last month. The court decision is not yet final pending appeal proceed- ings, which the government has said it wants to be heard with ur- gency. Nothing can be taken for granted The survey findings suggest that the Labour government has suffered backlash from the court ruling and helped consolidate support for the PN, which put up a united front. Contrary to past surveys the PN has managed to claw back invalu- able ground with various cohorts of voters. The survey is a snapshot of the current situation and it remains to be seen whether these find- ings develop into a trend over the coming months. The PL did suffer a setback, al- beit less pronounced, two years ago at the height of the pandemic but recovered afterwards. For the PL, much will depend on how the government reacts to the court decision – from ensur- ing that justice is served in all its forms to what will happen to the unfulfilled promises linked to the concession. But what the num- bers definitely suggest, is that the PL's rock-solid majority cannot be taken for granted. Concurrently, the PN's renewed unity remains crucial for the par- ty to put up a solid alternative but in doing so it cannot ignore the recent past and understand that voter transition is not automatic. With a quarter of voters ada- mant on not voting, the cohort of disgruntled voters remains big. Much will depend on how the PN articulates its alternative vision for government that goes beyond being anti-Labour. PN ahead among young voters The PN beats the PL among women voters (31.2% vs 29.6%), while male voters give the PL a relative majority over the PN (31.9% vs 25.9%). For the first time in many months, the PN edges the PL among young voters. Support for the Opposition party among those aged between 16 and 35 now stands at 22.6%, against the PL's 21.6%. The PL enjoys a healthy lead over its rival among those aged between 36 and 50. The govern- ment party has the support of 28% of voters in this age cohort, against the PN's 16.6%. The PN gains an edge among those aged between 51 and 65, while the PL edges ahead among pensioners aged 65 and over. Gozo strikes back at PL On a geographical basis, each party wins three regions. The PN's best performance is in Gozo where it scores 42.5% against the PL's 24.3%. The Steward case has particular relevance in Gozo be- cause the promised new hospital was never built. The PN also triumphs in the Northern Harbour region, scor- ing 39.6% over the PL's 24.2%, and the Western region where it edges ahead with 29.9% against the PL's 29%. The PL's best performance is in the Southern Harbour, where it scores 48.6% against the PN's 15.5%. The PL also wins com- fortably in the South-Eastern re- gion with 37.3% against the PN's 15.8%, and comes out in front in the Northern region with 24% versus the PN's 20.4%. The numbers within these sub- groups have to be treated with caution, given that they carry a higher margin of error than the overall result but they do give an indication of voter sentiment. Labour suffers loss in voter re- tention Analysing the results by political allegiance shows a sharp drop in voter retention by the PL when compared to previous surveys. The PL retains 65.9% of peo- ple who voted for it in the 2022 general election, down from the 77.9% registered in the February survey. Additionally, 13% and 15.1% of PL voters respectively say they are uncertain or will not vote, while 3.3% say they will vote PN if an election is held now. The PN retains 76.3% of voters that voted for it in the last gener- al election, up from 67.3% in the February survey. Of those who voted PN in March 2022, 6.6% are uncertain what to do now and 11% will not vote, while 1.9% will vote Labour. The numbers show that there is a slight shift of voters from the PL to the PN. Additionally, the PN gains more than the PL among those who did not vote in the 2022 general election. Significantly, three-quarters of non-voters in 2022 (which include those who had a right to vote but did not cast their ballot and new voters who turned 16 since then) remain steadfast in choosing not to vote if an election is held now.