Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1494946
9 NEWS maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 15 MARCH 2023 will PN gains last? Whether the PN's latest gains are the kiss of life that will resurrect a political zom- bie depends on how the party sustains the momentum across a veritable minefiled of fac- tionalism, especially when the euphoria of this Delia victory fizzles out. If the unity lasts through to the European elections of 2024, to substantially narrow the gap between the two parties, the PN might just as well give Labour a run for its money in 2027. That's also a matter of how voters who presently identify as 'non-voters' in MaltaToday surveys, will see the PN as a credible alternative for govern- ment, or a threat to the gains achieved under Labour. To reach out to former Labour voters, the PN must also em- phasise continuity and reassure those voters who harbour fears of a Nationalist, conservative "restoration". Cracks in Labour erode the perceptino of unity, but it's a wake-up call on a much-needed internal debate to address the issues disori- enting different segments of PL voters Labour leaders have gloated about party unity as they saw the PN torn by factionalism, a factor that has undermined the PN's attractiveness to govern with the stability the country needs. But this also requires Labour to manage its own tensions in- side its big-tent coalition, and the conflicts between those who truly believed in the 'Mal- ta Tagħna Lkoll' mantra, and those who saw in Labour an opportunity to make a quick buck. Labour's economic record in the past decade dispelled mis- trust on the party's ability to manage a market economy, namely by pressing the acceler- ator that boosted growth. But now the party is facing resent- ment in communities irked by the creeping perception that the party is in cahoots with big business. Even conflicting aspirations of younger, liberal Labour vot- ers and older, socially conserv- ative voters, may come to a head if the party sticks to its re- formist agenda. But any back- tracking on this front may well backfire on its appeal to voters who shifted to Labour for this very reason. At this early stage in Abela's legislature, this poll could be a wake-up call for the party be- fore its problems grow any fur- ther. But with an obsession for uni- ty and deference to 'caudillo' leaders, Labour's hubris can come at a huge cost. A debate on party direction after Jo- seph Muscat's disgraced exit in 2019 should no longer be suppressed. Abela does have to choose: lead a continental par- ty where debate is the order of the day, or run it like an autoc- racy. Abstention is becoming a large parking space for voters dissatisfied with Labour but not convinced of PN's ability to govern The last survey shows that while 3% of PL voters in 2022 will vote PN, a far larger per- centage (15%) will not vote. So despite the PN's modest gains, not voting remains a more attractive option for former Labour voters which the PN needs to win over. And that suggests that even Labour voters angry at the Abela administration, still do not see the PN as an al- ternative government. So while abstention may well be the first step in a trajectory towards a change in government, it could also be seen as a yellow card to Labour rather than a red one. Neither are there any signs of ab- stentionist voters who could mi- grate to a third party. Even with modest gains for green party ADPD, most Labour voters chose to park themselves in the absten- tionist camp in another indication that their return to Labour cannot be excluded, es- pecially when voters are asked to choose which party is best suited to govern Malta. The PN might ride the wave of disgrun- tlement until the MEP elec- tions in 2024, but after that it will increasingly face questions on whether it is suitable to gov- ern the country. And to get there the PN may have to reassure those vot- ers who fear a conservative backlash. Significantly the survey shows that one- third of voters under the age of 50, are intent on not voting; and more than half do not trust either political leader. Yet Abela still enjoys a comfortable lead over Grech in both age groups. And among those aged 36-50, a staggering 51% will not vote but Abela still en- joys a 14-point lead over Grech in that group. Cold shower for Labour and Nationalist glee could rein- force grassroots loyalties as they see PN recovery The PN may be tempted to blow its trumpet prematurely, forgetting that at the moment any electoral inroads depend on recovering long lost trust among different segments of the electorate. Self-restraint in the face of favourable numbers is essential for a party with a reputation for being smug, ar- rogant and self-entitled. In fact, some voters parked in the abstentionist camp may well go back to Labour if they start fearing a return to the PN's old ways. And while the PN is expect- ed to stand up for fairness and militate against abuses by holding those responsible accountable, it has to reas- sure switchers that they will not face retribution for simply having once given Labour a chance. On the other hand, Abela has a window of opportunity to start addressing those pub- lic concerns which are weighing the party down. In this sense, time is on Abela's side but he can't afford to take his voters for granted. Bernard Grech