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5.12.19 12 Tatsiana Kulakevich Tatsiana Kulakevich is Associate Professor of Instruction in the School of Interdisciplinary Global Studies, Affiliate Professor at the Institute for Russian, European, and Eurasian Studies, University of South Florida OPINION 1.6.2023 Moldova is trying to join the EU, but it will have a hard time breaking away from Russia's orbit M oldova, one of Europe's poorest countries, straddles Ukraine to its east and European Union countries to its west – placing it in an arguably vulnerable position in the ongoing war be- tween Ukraine and Russia. But Moldova, a former So- viet republic, is increasingly signaling that it is aligning it- self with the European Union. Mimi Castle, a wine estate southeast of the Moldovan capital, Chisinau, was the site of a June 1, 2023, political meeting of European lead- ers focused on security and stability in Europe. Ukrain- ian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who pressed for more Western aid in the fight against Russia, was among the leaders who attended. Moldova's Western-leaning government has accused Rus- sia of trying to block its entry into the European Union. But a top EU leader said recently that the organization would welcome Moldova with "open arms and open hearts". "Moldova does not want to be blackmailed by the Krem- lin," Moldovan President Maia Sandu said during a pro-EU political rally in Chisinau on May 22. "We don't want to be on the outskirts of Europe anymore," continued Sandu, who said her goal is that Moldova joins the EU by 2030. One major complicating fac- tor for Moldova, though, is that an eastern section of its territory, Transnistria, has been occupied by Russian troops since 1992. As a researcher on Eastern Europe, I think it is important to understand the reasons Moldova might have a hard time breaking away from Rus- sia's orbit. Moldova's population is split Moldova first applied to join the EU – a process that takes nine years, on average – in March 2022, shortly after Russia launched a full inva- sion of Ukraine. But the country's population of roughly 3.4 million people is split on this move, accord- ing to the Moldovan polling company Magenta Consult- ing. Approximately 48% of the population said in March 2023 that Moldova should join the European Union, while 34% expressed their support for maintaining ties with Russia. Despite the citizens' split sentiment, Moldova is already moving away from Russia. In May 2022, the government announced its desire to leave the Russian-led Common- wealth of Independent States, a regional political and eco- nomic group set up after the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991. However, Russia still has po- litical influence in Moldova. A pro-Russian politician, for example, won an election for governor in Gagauzia, an au- tonomous region in southern Moldova, in May 2022. Sandu has also accused Rus- sia of trying to overthrow Moldova's government and replace it with a puppet re- gime picked by the Kremlin. Resistance to corruption reform There are different condi- tions that countries need to meet before they formally start negotiations with EU countries to become part of the organization. The European Commission has spelled out nine reforms it wants Moldova to make – six of them are focused on fight- ing corruption in the justice sector. Corruption in Moldo- va is widespread. The Moldovan government is now undertaking a compre- hensive reform of its justice system, in advance of entering formal negotiations to join the EU by the end of 2023. However, some Moldovan judges are resisting efforts to make anti-corruption chang- es, which would include a pre-vetting system for poten- tial judges. As a result, there have been widespread resignations of judges, paralyzing the Su- preme Court of Justice due to too few members remaining in office. Lack of border control Another complicating fac- tor in Moldova's bid for EU membership is Transnistria, a pro-Russian breakaway re- gion that separated from Mol- dova with the help of the Rus- sian army after the fall of the Soviet Union. The Transnistrian govern- ment has de facto independ- ence, but other countries and the United Nations simply recognize it as as part of Mol- dova. People living in Transnistria are largely Russian speakers, and the government is run by pro-Russian separatists. Russia also provides Trans- nistria with free natural gas and has supported older peo- ple in the region with pension money. The presence of Russian troops in Transnistria pre- vents Moldova from fully con- trolling its own borders. If ac- tivated, combat-ready Russian troops in Transnistria could quickly destabilize the region. One condition for EU mem- bership is border and terri- torial control. Without this, Moldova cannot join the EU. Cost-of-living crisis Moldova's heavy reliance on food and energy imports from Ukraine and Russia made it vulnerable to conflict-related disruptions to food and en- ergy supplies from Ukraine and Russia due to the war in Ukraine. Moldova's inflation rate reached an all-time high of 34.6% in October 2022. The country's inflation rate has since eased, but still stands at 18%. High living costs have sparked protests over the past several months, with people concerned about energy pric- es, but also about the ability to afford other necessities like milk. Unstable energy sources is another concern for Moldova. Ukraine cut its electricity exports to Moldova after Rus- sian missile strikes targeted the country's energy infra- structure in 2022. And Russia cut the daily gas it gave to Moldova by half in October 2022, resulting in electricity blackouts and concern about the country running out of power in the winter. In an attempt to escape Mos- cow's orbit, Moldova started importing natural gas from other international sources, mainly from Romania, in De- cember 2022. The influx of Ukrainian ref- ugees to Moldova has resulted in additional financial costs. Over 800,000 Ukrainian ref- ugees crossed the country's eastern border – and 100,000 Ukrainians are now living in Moldova. While the challenges faced by Moldova are significant, there is also reason to think it might join the EU. In April 2023, the European Union's parliament reaffirmed its commitment to Moldova's EU membership. But some of Moldova's prob- lems, like lack of full territo- rial control and deep-rooted corruption, are unlikely to fade quickly. Moldova and a breakway region called Transnistria are gaining more attention as Moldova tries to join the European Union. Moldova borders Ukraine, as does Transnistria. Internationally, this region is recognized as part of Moldova.