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WORLD 14 maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 6 SEPTEMBER 2023 IN the coming days, North Ko- rean leader Kim Jong Un could take his biggest diplomatic step since the outbreak of COVID-19 and travel to Russia to meet Vladimir Putin for discussions on arms sales and military co- operation, according to news reports. On Monday, The New York Times reported that the two leaders will meet on the side- lines of the Eastern Economic Forum to be held in Vladiv- ostok in Russia's Far East from Sept. 10 to 13, citing "U.S. and allied officials." The BBC later echoed the claims. While Moscow and Pyong- yang have yet to confirm the meeting will take place, observ- ers told NK News on Tuesday that there are a range of rea- sons why it could go ahead. Experts said they were unsur- prised at reports that Kim is more interested in talks with Putin as the short-term prior- ity over China, while some dis- missed the notion that Russia badly needs North Korean mil- itary support. Others noted a convergence of factors that could be driving the two leaders to seek a meet- ing, including a shared desire to counter growing trilateral military cooperation between Seoul, Washington and Tokyo. Key context A meeting between Kim and Putin in Vladivostok would mark the latest significant event in the development of Moscow-Pyongyang relations, following a visit by Russia's de- fense minister Sergei Shoigu to North Korea in July — the first in over 30 years. During his trip, Shoigu invit- ed Kim Jong Un to visit Russia, paving the way for the upcom- ing talks, unnamed U.S. offi- cials reportedly told The New York Times. White House National Securi- ty Council spokesperson Adri- enne Watson said late Mon- day that "arms negotiations between Russia and the DPRK are actively advancing," adding that the U.S. has "information that Kim Jong Un expects these discussions to continue, to in- clude leader-level diplomatic engagement in Russia." To date, U.S. intelligence on Russia-DPRK cooperation has been murky at best, with bold claims about North Korean weapons sales to the Kremlin last year not translating into definitive evidence of their use by Russia in Ukraine. In fact, The New York Times even reported that U.S. officials now claim their previous "dis- closures" about Russian weap- on purchases had "deterred" such activities. It thus remains possible that Kim might not go to Vladiv- ostok at all in the coming days, especially considering North Korea is about to conduct cel- ebrations for the country's founding day on Sept. 9. Why now? Despite this, several experts told NK News they believed the time was right for Kim to make a visit to Russia. "I felt like (this could) be pos- sible since a few weeks ago," said Artyom Lukin, a professor of international relations at Far Eastern Federal University in Vladivostok, told NK News. "I started to feel that Kim Jong Un's visit may be on the cards." An absence of any official de- nial from Moscow means that the meeting "looks like some- thing (that) is going to hap- pen," Lukin continued. "(Kim) may be inside Russia already. I wouldn't be surprised if he's already here." Several observers told NK News they believe growing diplomatic ties between Russia and North Korea might have propelled a high-level meeting to take place in short order. "Kim traveling to Russia now … can likely be interpreted as striking while the iron is hot, namely taking advantage of Russia's own isolation," said Anthony Rinna, senior edi- tor with the Sino-NK research group, referring to Moscow's lack of global support due to its invasion of Ukraine. "North Korea is … the U.N. member state which is ful- ly aligned with Russia on Ukraine," Lukin said, having "fully endorsed Russia's acqui- sition of Crimea and of the new territories in Ukraine," refer- ring to Moscow's annexation of the breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. As a result, he continued, "po- litically and diplomatically it is Kim Jong Un who is Moscow's closest ally." Andrei Lankov, a professor at Kookmin University and direc- tor of Korean Risk Group, said North Korea and Russia would aim to give the impression of heightened military coopera- tion through such a summit, though he said actual military cooperation remains unlikely. "(The illusion) provides a way to exercise some pressure on South Korea and the U.S.," he said. "For North Koreans the most important part is to press ROK, and for Russians to press the United States." Arms aid? The New York Times report states that Russia seeks DPRK "artillery shells and antitank missiles" to support its invasion of Ukraine, and in exchange would provide North Korea with "advanced technology for satellites and nuclear-powered submarines." Multiple unnamed U.S. offi- cials reportedly told the outlet that the proposed transactions "go far beyond" earlier flirtations between the two sides about possible arms deals. Late last month, the U.S. and three others released a joint statement accus- ing Moscow's defense minister of trying to "convince Pyong- yang to sell artillery ammuni- tion to Russia" during his visit to North Korea in July. Experts previously told NK News that North Korean short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs), including the KN-23, KN-24 and KN-25, would be of great use to Russia and that Kim Jong Un acted the part of salesman during Shoigu's visit to a weapons expo and military parade. Yet Lankov was skeptical that North Korean weapons would make a huge difference to Rus- sian war objectives. "[North Korea] also has some relatively high-tech technolo- gy, it's true, but they most like- ly produce such weaponry in small quantities, and the qual- ity of this high-tech weaponry will presumably be inferior to the Russian analogues." He added that there had been early predictions the Russian military would "run out of ar- tillery shells and missiles," but that the ongoing conflict showed that this had not been the case. "The Ukrainians are still outgunned on the battle- field," he said. But Christopher Green of the International Crisis Group said that if Russia was turning to North Korea "for inputs to its war machine," this could be an "indicator of the stresses that war machine is under." Any arms transfers involv- ing North Korea would violate U.N. and U.S. and internation- al sanctions. The State Depart- ment has pledged to enforce these restrictions, which Mos- cow voted in favor of as recent- ly as 2017. North Korean rockets are in Ukraine, albeit in use by Ukrainian forces. Reporting by the Financial Times suggested last month that the North Ko- rean rockets were captured by a third country, possibly on the way to Russian forces, and then handed over to Ukraine. What to make of reports that Kim Jong Un will visit Russia for summit with Putin Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un in Vladivostok in 2019 | Image: Kremlin