Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1512911
A survey carried out by MaltaToday over the past two weeks shows the Labour Par- ty consolidating its lead over the PN. Overall findings show that the PL enjoys the support of 47.3%, a decrease of 1.7 points over November, and the PN stands at 43.1%, a decrease of 2.3 points from last month. Although both parties have shed votes from last month, amidst an increase of support for third parties, Labour has wid- ened its lead from 3.6 points in November to 4.2 points now. Based on a turnout of 69.8% this would translate to a numerical advantage of 10,352 votes up from 8,827 votes last month. The turnout here refers to valid votes cast as a percentage of all eligible voters. While this suggests that Labour has shed a considerable amount of support since the 2022 General Election when it commanded a 14-point lead, the survey confirms Labour's post budget recovery after a survey in October showed the PN leading by a whisker. The survey also shows that the percent- age of non-voters has remained practical- ly the same as last month (30.2%) while support for third parties has increased from 5.6% in November to 9.6% now. The consolidation in support for Labour comes in the aftermath of a socially ori- ented budget and a more concerted effort to address the concerns of disgruntled Labour voters. But this has not stopped the haemor- rhage of 2022 Labour voters - 33.9% of which will not vote if an election is held now, up from 26% in November. Labour's voting retention problem In fact, Labour only manages to retain 60.3% of its 2022 voters, down from 61.1% last month. On the other hand, the PN retains 64.7% of its voters, down from 66.8% in Novem- ber. Once again rather than shifting to other parties, most disgruntled Labour voters are registering their protest by abstaining. In fact, only 0.4% of Labour voters in 2022 opt for a third party compared to 9.6% of PN voters. But Labour voters are slightly keener on switching to the Opposition. While 5.4% of Labour voters in 2022 switch to the PN, 3.6% of PN voters switch to Labour. But the survey also shows both parties losing to abstention. But while 33.9% of Labour voters in 2022 - the largest ever in a MaltaToday survey - will abstain, a considerable 22% of PN voters would also abstain. 12 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 10 DECEMBER 2023 NEWS JAMES DEBONO jdebono@mediatoday.com.mt Labour leads by four points but voter retention MaltaToday December survey shows Labour is retaining only 60% of its 2022 voters and losing a third of its support to abstention, while the PN is losing a tenth of its voters to third parties and a fifth to abstention PL 47.3% Other 9.6% PN 43.1% 2022 Voters 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0 PL 2022 PN 2022 No vote 2022 60.3% 5.4% 0.4% 33.9% 3.6% 9.6% 22% 10.6% 15.4% 13.9% 60% PL PN Other Will not vote Voting Intentions Trust Barometer All Voters Robert Abela 37.5 Polling and market research since 2002 Nov 2023 Dec 2023 maltatoday SURVEY 2022 voters