Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1514570
NEWS 14 maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 17 JANUARY 2024 The Global Risks Report explores some of the most severe risks we may face over the next decade, against a backdrop of rapid technological change, economic uncertainty, a warming planet and conf lict. As cooperation comes under pressure, weakened economies and societies may only require the smallest shock to edge past the tipping point of resilience. LOOKING back at the events of 2023, plenty of developments captured the attention of people around the world – while others received minimal scrutiny. Vulnerable populations grappled with le- thal conflicts, from Sudan to Gaza and Is- rael, alongside record-breaking heat con- ditions, drought, wildfires and flooding. Societal discontent was palpable in many countries, with news cycles dominated by polarization, violent protests, riots and strikes. Although globally destabilising con- sequences – such as those seen at the initial outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war or the COVID-19 pandemic – were largely avoided, the longer-term outlook for these developments could bring further global shocks. As we enter 2024, 2023-2024 GRPS re- sults highlight a predominantly negative outlook for the world over the next two years that is expected to worsen over the next decade. Surveyed in September 2023, the majority of respondents (54%) anticipate some instability and a mod- erate risk of global catastrophes, while another 30% expect even more turbu- lent conditions. The outlook is markedly more nega- tive over the 10-year time horizon, with nearly two-thirds of respondents ex- pecting a stormy or turbulent outlook. Four structural forces that will shape the materialization and management of global risks over the next decade have been identified. These are longer-term shifts in the arrangement of and re- lationship between four systemic ele- ments of the global landscape: – Trajectories relating to global warm- ing and related consequences to Earth systems (Climate change). – Changes in the size, growth and structure of populations around the world (Demographic bifurcation). – Developmental pathways for fron- tier technologies (Technological accel- eration). – Material evolution in the concentra- tion and sources of geopolitical power (Geostrategic shifts). A new set of global conditions is taking shape across each of these domains and these transitions will be characterized by uncertainty and volatility. As soci- eties seek to adapt to these changing forces, their capacity to prepare for and respond to global risks will be affected. Environmental risks continue to dom- inate the risks landscape over all three time frames. Two-thirds of GRPS re- spondents rank Extreme weather as the top risk most likely to present a material crisis on a global scale in 2024, with the warming phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle projected to intensify and persist until May this year. It is also seen as the second-most se- vere risk over the two-year time frame and similar to last year's rankings, near- ly all environmental risks feature among the top 10 over the longer term. However, GRPS respondents disagree about the urgency of environmental risks, in particular Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse and Critical change to Earth systems. Younger respondents tend to rank these risks far more highly over the two-year period compared to older age groups, with both risks featur- ing in their top 10 rankings in the short term. The private sector highlights these risks as top concerns over the longer term, in contrast to respondents from civil society or government who pri- oritize these risks over shorter time frames. This dissonance in perceptions of urgency among key decision-makers implies sub-optimal alignment and de- cision-making, heightening the risk of missing key moments of intervention, which would result in long-term chang- es to planetary systems. A 3 0 C world explores the consequences of passing at least one "climate tipping point" within the next decade. Recent research suggests that the threshold for triggering long-term, potentially irre- versible and self-perpetuating changes to select planetary systems is likely to be passed at or before 1.5 0 C of global warming, which is currently anticipated to be reached by the early 2030s. Many economies will remain largely unprepared for "non-linear" impacts: the triggering of a nexus of several re- lated socioenvironmental risks has the potential to speed up climate change, through the release of carbon emissions, and amplify related impacts, threaten- ing climate-vulnerable populations. The collective ability of societies to adapt could be overwhelmed, consider- ing the sheer scale of potential impacts and infrastructure investment require- ments, leaving some communities and countries unable to absorb both the acute and chronic effects of rapid cli- mate change. As polarization grows and technological risks remain unchecked, 'truth' will come under pressure Societal polarization features among the top three risks over both the current and two-year time horizons, ranking #9 over the longer term. In addition, Soci- etal polarization and Economic down- turn are seen as the most interconnect- ed – and therefore influential – risks in the global risks network, as drivers and possible consequences of numerous risks. Emerging as the most severe glob- al risk anticipated over the next two years, foreign and domestic actors alike will leverage Misinformation and dis- information to further widen societal and political divides. As close to three billion people are expected to head to the electoral polls across several econ- omies – including Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Pakistan, the United Kingdom and the United States – over the next two years, the widespread use of misinformation and disinformation, and tools to disseminate it, may under- mine the legitimacy of newly elected governments. Resulting unrest could range from violent protests and hate crimes to civil confrontation and ter- rorism. Beyond elections, perceptions of reali- ty are likely to also become more polar- ized, infiltrating the public discourse on issues ranging from public health to so- cial justice. However, as truth is under- mined, the risk of domestic propaganda and censorship will also rise in turn. In response to mis- and disinformation, governments could be increasingly em- powered to control information based World Economic Forum report