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10 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 11 FEBRUARY 2024 EWROPEJ 2024 Anti-EU populism: MEP elections THE 2024 European Parliament elections could see a major shift to the right in many countries, with populist radical right parties gaining votes and seats across the EU, and centre-left and green parties losing votes and seats. A study by the European Coun- cil on Foreign Relations, authored by British political scientist and pollster Simon Hix amongst others, predicts that anti-Euro- pean populists are likely to top the polls in nine member states: Austria, Belgium, the Czech Re- public, France, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, and Slovakia; or come second or third in a further nine countries (Bul- garia, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Latvia, Portugal, Romania, Spain, and Sweden). The ECFR's forecast predicts al- most half the seats will be held by MEPs outside the "super grand coalition" of the three centrist groups – the EPP, S&D and lib- erals Renew. "This 'sharp right turn' is likely to have significant consequenc- es for European-level policies, which will affect the foreign poli- cy choices that the EU can make, particularly on environmental issues, where the new majority is likely to oppose ambitious EU action to tackle climate change," the ECFR said. Far-right parties are also be- coming increasingly dominant in national settings across many EU capitals: in November, Geert Wilders's Freedom Party (PVV) secured important wins in the Dutch general election, whilst in France, the National Rally's sup- port for a regressive immigration bill showed the far-right's impor- tant role in shaping European politics in 2023. "2024 is likely to see a contin- uation of this trend not only in national politics, but also at the European level, with early polls suggesting a more right-leaning European Parliament will emerge after the June 2024 European Par- liament elections," the ECFR said. Rise of anti-EU populists The results show that the two main political groups in the par- liament – the European People's Party (EPP) and the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Demo- crats (S&D) – will likely continue to lose seats as in the last two EP elections. "This reflects the long-term de- cline in support for mainstream parties and the growing support for extremist and smaller parties across Europe, which is resulting in an increasing fragmentation of European party systems, at both the national and European lev- els," the ECFR study said. "Despite this, we expect the EPP to remain the largest group in the parliament, and therefore main- tain most agenda-setting power, including over the choice of the next commission president." The EPP could lose seats in Germany, Italy, Romania, and Ireland, but significant gains in Spain. The S&D could lose a lot of seats in Germany, and the Netherlands, and will gain most seats in Poland. Renew is ex- pected to lose mainly in France and Spain, and make most gains in the Czech Republic and Italy. Even the centrist Renew Europe (RE) group and the Greens/Euro- pean Free Alliance (G/EFA) will also lose seats, falling from 101 to 86 and 71 to 61 respectively. Meanwhile, the Left group should increase their representation from 38 to 44 seats. In addition, if the Five Star Movement in Italy, predicted to win 13 seats, decided not to sit with the non-attached (NI) MEPs, but may choose to join either the G/EFA or the Left, which would bolster the number of MEPs sitting to the left of the S&D. But the main winners in the elections will be the populist right, with far-right Identity and Democracy (ID) group expected to gain 40 seats and, with almost 100 MEPs, to emerge as the third largest group in the new parlia- ment. Even the European Conserva- tives and Reformists (ECR) group will gain 18 seats. And, if Fidesz in Hungary, tipped to win 14 seats, joins the ECR, the latter could overtake RE and ID and become the third largest group. "We expect the ECR and ID MATTHEW VELLA mvella@mediatoday.com.mt