Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1515910
9 maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 14 FEBRUARY 2024 ANALYSIS wins big despite losing to abstention country is not at stake, vot- ers do not even have to worry whether Bernard Grech would make a better prime minister than Robert Abela. With inflation deflating La- bour's best of times narrative this should clearly be the PN's moment to shine. Labour has also taken one hit after anoth- er on the corruption front, and only the most die-hard of sup- porters would fail to recognise that something is rotten at the Mile End. The fact that Labour is still winning comfortably despite all these negative factors mil- itating against it, suggests that there is a degree of satisfaction among the electorate with the way it is governing the coun- try. MaltaToday's surveys over the past months suggest that after reaching its nadir follow- ing a summer of discontent, Labour has been in recovery mode since November. This was particularly evident after a budget focused on contain- ing the impact of inflation on low-income families. In fact, its lead over the PN in surveys asking respondents on how they will vote in a hypo- thetical general election had already increased from 5,000 votes in November to 9,000 votes in December. In an indication that this up- ward trajectory has continued, the latest MT survey shows Labour leading the MEP race by 15,000 votes despite a lower turnout among Labour voters. Moreover, MaltaToday's Government Performance Barometer shows the govern- ment's rating increasing from 2.6 out of 5 in December to 2.8 now. This suggests that contrary to what is the case in most EU member states, the incumbent is still seen in a positive light despite inflationary pressures. Much depends on whether the government can hold on to the momentum it gained after the budget and whether it can carry on this mild 'feel good factor' in the next months. But one major factor behind Labour's resilience is that 11 years after being ousted from power, the Nationalist Party still provokes an allergic re- action among vast swathes of the electorate including many who are disgusted by Labour's antics. Some are turned off by the PN's conservatism, others by its lack of depth and economic vision while some others are turned off by its half baked overtures to liberal voters. The only saving grace for the PN in these elections is Roberta Metsola, whose in- ternational profile may attract younger more forward-look- ing non-partisan voters who may choose her despite their allergy to the sclerotic PN. But one also expects Labour to mobilise its war machine in a bid to depict Metsola as part of the PN's 'old guard' while hitting at her pro Israeli stance on the Middle East war to fur- ther alienate her from younger progressives. The power of the core vote But the ultimate paradox in next June's election may well be that of a large segment of middle-of-the-road voters staying at home. It will be the party that can best mobilise its core voters which could reap most gains. The MaltaToday survey shows that abstention is highest among younger and tertiary and post-secondary voters who earn a monthly in- come of between €1,000 and €3,000. If these stay at home, the outcome of the election will depend on which of the two major parties is best ca- pable of mobilising older, less educated, and probably more partisan supporters to go out and vote. In this sense, Labour's strate- gy of targeting disgruntlement in its heartlands and even among Muscat loyalists, may pay off in the short term. The calculation made by La- bour strategists may well be that it is much easier for the party to win back supporters of politicians side-lined for pigging out than voters dis- gusted by a system which per- petuates the feeding frenzy. The risk is that an election focused on which party is best in mobilising its core voters could easily degenerate into a race to the bottom, further alienating middle of the road and principled voters. And while these may be dis- pensable in midterm elections, their support will be crucial for winning the next gener- al election. In this sense, the MEP election could end up as a pyrrhic victory for both parties. For if the PN manages to slightly reduce the gap and win three seats, it will proba- bly end up sitting on its laurels and avoid any drastic steps like changing its leader before it is too late. But if Labour wins big thanks to its greater success in mobi- lising its core voters, it could well face a reckoning with middle of the road voters in general elections. In this sense, Labour could end up winning big in the mid-terms mostly by default, despite having lost the trust of thousands of its more po- litically nuanced voters, who prefer to abstain. Votes in 2019 Projected votes in survey Difference PL 141267 106382 -34885 PN 98611 90960 -7651 Others 20334 24541 4207 Valid votes cast 260212 221883 -38329