Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1518433
8 maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 3 APRIL 2024 ANALYSIS Underdog no more: Labour's TO rally supporters and ensure that they turn out to vote in droves, Joseph Muscat always emphasised that his party was entering the race as the "under- dog". Despite polling high before MEP elections in 2014 and 2019, there were two reasons why Muscat's claim seemed plausible. In 2014, Labour had just won power after a quarter of a cen- tury of deeply entrenched PN rule. And despite inserting itself and its proxies in the country's financial establish- ment, Labour was also pushing a socially liberal agenda which shocked the conservative es- tablishment. Even by 2019 Labour had only been in power for six years and Muscat could still conjure the idea of a sinister conspiracy by the country's 'establishment' to dethrone him on the back of corruption allegations and the protest movement galvanised by the assassination of journal- ist Daphne Caruana Galizia. Moreover, Muscat was also concerned by latent Euroscep- ticism in his own camp which could lower the turnout among his supporters in elections for the European parliament. But it is now increasingly dif- ficult for his successor, Rob- ert Abela, to convey the same narrative of Labour being an underdog party 11 years after Labour first came to power. Today, the party is increasing- ly entrenched in the establish- ment and polls show the par- ty is going strong, defying the laws of diminishing returns for parties who have been in power for more than a decade. The latest MaltaToday survey shows that a significant de- crease in non-voters from 37% in January to 23% in March. This movement catapulted La- bour to a 29,000-vote advan- tage over the PN as the turnout increased to 77%. A survey conducted by the Times of Malta conducted ear- lier in March showed Labour leading with an advantage of 34,000 votes with a turnout of 71%. A survey by Vince Mar- mara for it-Torċa conducted in January had also shown Labour leading by 27,000 votes. One major disadvantage for Abela is that Labour is now perceived as a dominant party which offers economic stabil- ity and patronage, but which struggles to create the kind of enthusiasm that comes with being perceived as the under- dog fighting an uphill battle to change the country. In this sense, ever since aban- doning plans to liberalise abor- tion laws in cases where the mother's health is in jeopardy and legalising recreational can- nabis, Abela's platform seems devoid of the reformist edge which characterised Muscat's Labour. Abela's greatest selling point is stability during a pandem- ic and global instability. It is no mean feat for sure but is it enough to shore up the enthu- siasm required to make people go out and vote in an election where the country's govern- ment is not at stake? The higher the turnout, the greater the PL's lead So far, Abela's risk averse strategy and balancing acts seem to be paying off in stem- ming the haemorrhage of votes to the non-voting camp. And with the opposition stuck in a rut, Abela's main concern re- mains that of boosting the turn out. Surveys are now showing a pattern; that the scale of La- bour's victory is proportionate to the turnout among its vot- ers: The higher the turnout among Labour's 2022 voters, the greater the lead. Therefore, at this stage what seems to be crucial for Abe- la, is ensuring a fifth consec- utive 'Labour super majority' of more than 35,000 votes. He needs this kind of victory to re-energise his government and to confirm his standing as the party's indisputable leader. In this sense his greatest oppo- nent is not the PN but absten- tion. One possible favourable sce- nario for Abela is that just as happened in the 2022 general election, a higher percentage of former PN voters will eventual- ly stay at home than PL voters. This is not a far-fetched sce- nario considering that the lat- est MT survey shows an equal proportion of PL and PN vot- ers in 2022 abstaining (14%). Moreover, with polls showing an imminent Labour super ma- jority, a segment of PN voters may be even more tempted to abstain, possibly in the hope of forcing a change in the oppo- sition. In fact, PN voters angry at the status quo in their party may well choose to deliver a blow to the party in the hope that this would set in motion a radical reform in the opposition. Still Labour also faces sever- al obstacles which stand in the way of its super majority. Labour's ageing problem and the Metsola factor Voting Labour is no longer Surveys conducted by different polling agencies suggest the Labour Party is set to win by a significant margin of between 27,000 and 34,000 votes. The gap may even grow if PN voters are further demoralised. But faced by an ineffectual opposition can Labour sit on its laurels? James Debono reports.