Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1518433
9 maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 3 APRIL 2024 ANALYSIS strong but tenuous lead the 'cool' choice of the younger generation even if the Opposi- tion's standing among younger voters remains abysmal. What is clear from surveys is that among under 50-year-olds, Labour's greatest enemy is ab- stention. The latest MaltaToday survey shows that only 35% of 16- to 35-year-olds intend voting La- bour in the forthcoming mid- term election. On the other hand, 34% intend to abstain while only 27% will vote PN. At 38% Labour fares just a lit- tle better among those aged between 36 and 50, amongst which 33% intend not voting and 25% intend voting PN. Moreover, a relative majori- ty of 16- to 35-year-olds (43%) trust neither of the two polit- ical leaders, while 41% trust Abela and just 16% trust Grech. What surveys do not tell us is whether this abstention is fuelled by disenchantment, re- bellion or sheer indifference to politics in general. The greatest fear for Labour is that that this critical mass of non-voters may eventually move towards the opposition in a way which would help it narrow the gap. This seems unlikely in the present context, although one cannot exclude that some of these voters including mid- dle of the road voters may be tempted to vote for Roberta Metsola, whom they may per- ceive as a jolt to the system. But this depends on how far Metsola will be damaged by the PN's toxic brand and by Labour's constant attempts to depict her as the foremost rep- resentative of the PN establish- ment. The survey also shows rela- tively high rates of abstention among the tertiary educated (29%) and the post-secondary educated (30%), which tradi- tionally leaned in favour of the PN. Moreover, on a region- al level the highest abstention rate is recorded in the PN lean- ing northern region where 27% intend to abstain. A matter of class Even more significant is the high abstention rate among middle and upper middle-class voters who have also tradition- ally leaned PN but amongst which Labour has made some inroads in recent years. Abstention rises to 35% among those earning between €2,000 and €3,000 and to 50% among those earning €3,000 and €4,000. These cohorts may well be a target audience for a resurgent centre-right party or third par- ties addressing post material concerns. Up for grabs In short, among committed voters Labour scores a remark- able 53%. This depends on non-voters remaining parked in no men's land. For when non-voters are taken into ac- count, Labour's share of the vote falls to around 40%. And while in the next weeks Labour may benefit from an increase of abstention among former PN voters whose mo- rale is at an all-time low, the PL will not be resting on its laurels. Abela's party will do everything in its power to pre- vent the PN and Metsola from making inroads among young- er, more educated and more affluent voters - the categories which are still up for grabs. Abela's greatest selling point is stability during a pandemic and global instability. It is no mean feat for sure but is it enough to shore up the enthusiasm required to make people go out and vote in an election where the country's government is not at stake?