Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1519042
14 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 14 APRIL 2024 ANALYSIS KURT SANSONE ksansone@mediatoday.com.mt THE result of the European Parliament election in June is almost a foregone conclusion in voting terms. Based on consistent polling data, the Labour Party is ex- pected to obtain an absolute majority of votes with the on- ly factor in play being the size of the voting gap between the major parties. However, a question mark hangs over the number of seats each of the two major parties will obtain. It is extremely un- likely any other party or in- dependent candidate will be elected, leaving the two major parties battling it out for the six available seats. Polling data so far suggests the result will give the PL and the PN three seats each, thus returning to the situation of parity in 2014. However, polls only capture how voters intend to cast their first preference vote, which on its own may not be enough to understand how many seats a party will win. The Maltese electoral system allows voters to transfer their vote between candidates – even candidates from different parties – by awarding subse- quent preferences. This means the number of votes a party collectively achieves at the first count in the European election does not automatically translate into a proportional number of seats. To try and understand what might happen on 8 June, we took a look back at the past European elections to find out what happened. The first two EP elections in 2004 and 2009 elected five MEPs not six since EU rules at the time meant the lowest threshold of seats a country could have, based on its popu- lation size, was five not six. However, midway in the 2009 legislature, the Lisbon Treaty came into force and Malta was awarded an additional seat. This was filled by Labour can- didate Joseph Cuschieri, who had been the last man stand- ing at the last count. In 2014 and 2019, Malta elected six MEPs and will be doing the same in two months' time. The threshold: Finding the quota Malta's electoral system de- termines a threshold of votes that a candidate has to achieve to be elected. This is known as the quota. Sometimes a can- didate can be elected without reaching the quota if they are the last person on the ballot and still seats to be filled. In the general election, each district has its own quota but in the EP election all of Mal- ta and Gozo are considered as one large district and so a na- tional quota is set. The quota for the June elec- tion will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes cast by seven (one more than the available seats) plus one. There are mathemati- cal reasons for this formula, which we will not delve into because it goes beyond the scope of this analysis. The size of the quota thus depends on the number of valid votes cast, which is var- iable, and the number of seats, which is fixed. In the 2019 EP election the quota a candidate had to achieve to get elected was 37,174 votes. In the 2004 and 2009 elections, the quota was much higher at 40,954 and 41,362 respectively because the valid votes cast were divid- ed by a smaller number (six) to reflect the five seats that had to be elected. According to the last Malta- Today survey (March), which projected a turnout of 76.6%, the quota would stand at 40,297 votes. A lower turnout would result in a smaller quo- ta. The seats: Determining the quota share To arrive at an approxima- tion of seats the parties could win, we divided the total num- ber of valid votes each ob- tained on the first count by the quota. In 2019, the PL's first count vote translated into a share of 3.80 quotas – three full quotas, which are equivalent to three seats and 0.80 of a quota. The PN's first count vote translat- ed into a share of 2.65 quotas – two full quotas, equivalent to two seats and 0.65 of a quota. All other political parties and independent candidates col- lectively polled 0.54 of a quota on the first count. This means the collective vote of all third parties and independents at the first count was not enough MEP elections: Who will win YEAR Seats PL PN ADPD Imperium Others PD PL 3 PL 3 PN 2 PN 2 Others 0 Others 0 Rank Name Votes Year 1 Simon Busuttil 68,782 2009 2 Miriam Dalli 63,438 2019 3 Simon Busuttil 58,899 2004 4 Alfred Sant 48,739 2014 5 Roberta Metsola 38,206 2019 *The quota was based on the election of five seats. Midway in the legislature Malta obtained **Based on MaltaToday's March survey results; Third parties and independents are European Parliament Top 5 Highest Polling Candidates 2.43 0.14 0.09 Seats Won 2004 5 2.91 2.39 0.56 0.04 0.11 0 0.06 0 2009* 5 3.29