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15 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 14 APRIL 2024 ANALYSIS to capture even one seat. These numbers show that the two major parties could deter- mine that they would be shar- ing five seats between them (three for the PL and two for the PN), leaving just one seat in play. By looking at the fraction (0.80 for the PL and 0.65 for the PN) one could argue that in 2019, on the first count the PL was in pole position to ob- tain its fourth seat since its re- maining share was larger than the PN's. The same happened in 2014 when the six seats were divided equally between the two major parties. In 2014, the PL had a share of 3.74 quotas against the PN's 2.80. While it was immediate- ly clear that the PL would win three seats and the PN two, the remaining share suggested the PN enjoyed a slight advantage over Labour – 0.80 against 0.74 – to win its third seat. Eventually, this advantage did translate into a seat for the PN although as we will see further down, luck also played its part. The same happened in 2004 when the PL had 2.91 quotas against the PN's 2.39. Each were assured two seats at the first count, leaving in play the fifth and final seat. However, with Labour's fraction stand- ing at 0.91 and the PN's at 0.39, the former was in pole position to capture its third seat, as it eventually did. If we apply this mathemati- cal formula to the MaltaToday March survey results, the PL would end up with 3.70 quo- tas on the first count and the PN with 2.98 quotas. All the rest would have 0.32 quotas to their name. This means the PL is assured of three seats and the PN of two. However, if past election patterns are anything to go by, the PN is likely to win its third seat since it currently enjoys a higher fraction than the PL – 0.98 versus 0.70. Although this straightfor- ward mathematical analysis of first count votes as a share of the quota is a plausible way of determining where Malta's sixth seat could go, it is not a foregone conclusion. This pat- tern may still be disrupted. The inheritance: Influence of vote transfers The electoral system allows voters to shift their prefer- ence between candidates of different parties (which is per- fectly legal and does not spoil the ballot) or decide to give a set number of preferenc- es and stop (rendering their vote non-transferable at some stage). These two scenarios can also play a determining factor in the outcome of that sixth seat. Indeed, by repeating the quota share exercise at every count, one can track the size of the remaining fraction to determine whether the party is getting closer to achieving a full quota or moving away from that possibility. Our first example is from 2004. Alternattiva Demokra- tika's Arnold Cassola had secured more than 22,000 votes on the first count, an impressive performance for a third-party candidate. He sin- glehandedly obtained 0.56 of a quota on the first count and until his elimination from the race had increased this to 0.71 since he kept inheriting votes at a steady pace from candi- dates who were eliminated be- fore him. Roll forward to 2014 and the election result shows us that on Count 1 the PL had 3.74 of a quota and the PN 2.80. This suggested that the PN was in pole position to win its third seat. However, by Count 27, which was the penultimate count, the PL had increased its quota share to 3.84, while the PN's stood at 2.82. At this late stage in the race, the PL's remaining share (0.84) was larger than the PN's (0.82) thus indicating that La- bour had turned the tables and was now in pole position to capture its fourth seat. The reasons why this hap- pened are twofold: PL voters were more disciplined than their PN counterparts in vot- ing for all Labour candidates thus ensuring their vote re- mained within the red block; PL candidates inherited more votes from third party candi- dates and independents when these were eliminated. Nonetheless, by a stroke of luck the PN managed to clinch its third seat by a whisker. At Count 27, the PL's Joseph Cuschieri was eliminated from the race because he had the least votes. The only remain- ing candidates where Clint Camilleri, who had 23,273 votes to his name, and Mar- lene Mizzi (26,242 votes) for the PL, and Therese Comodini Cachia (29,481 votes) for the PN. Upon elimination, Cuschie- ri's 16,613 votes were redis- tributed according to voter preference. Camilleri received 6,101 votes, Mizzi 9,388 votes and Comodini Cachia 99 votes. At Count 28, Camilleri's to- tal stood at 29,374, Mizzi's at 35,630 and Comodini Cachia's at 29,580. This meant that Camilleri, who had the least votes, was eliminated and the last two seats available went to Mizzi and Comodini Cachia in a race that saw the parties elect three MEPs each. Prior to Camilleri's elimina- tion, the PL had enough votes within its kitty to elect both him and Mizzi at the expense of Comodini Cachia but the manner by which Cuschieri's votes were inherited meant that Camilleri missed the bus. Had Camilleri inherited 207 more votes from Cuschieri (at the expense of Mizzi), he would have overtaken Comod- ini Cachia at the last count and Labour would have elected both him and Mizzi. This example shows that al- though the quota share parties achieve on the first count does give an indication of how seats will be apportioned, this may change as the race progress- es… and as 2014 showed, it could even be down to luck. The future: What can happen in June Eyes will be set on Roberta Metsola's performance this June. She is undoubtedly the PN's frontrunner but it has to be seen whether she could entice lukewarm Nationalists and middle of the road voters to vote for her. What the PN will be wary of is having a strong vote of sym- pathy for Metsola that does not translate into subsequent support for other candidates. If Metsola hoovers up a sig- nificant number of first pref- erences from voters who then shift to other parties or sim- ply stop at her name, the PN's share of the quota may be strong on Count 1 but could start to dwindle thereafter thus missing out on the third seat. At this stage, this is all spec- ulation. Polls can only give a snapshot of voter behaviour and what really counts is how each voter marks their ballot sheet on the day. A higher percentage of vote transfers between candidates from different parties and in- dependents; or a protest vote whereby voters mark their first preference, and possibly their second and stop, could upset the applecart of history. At this stage, all we can do is wait, see and play around with mathematical calculations to understand the past without knowing whether it will be reflected in the immediate fu- ture. the six seats? YEAR Seats PL PN ADPD Imperium Others PD PL 3 PL 3 PL 3 PL 4 PL 3 PN 2 PN 2 PN 3 PN 2 PN 3 Others 0 Others 0 Others 0 Others 0 Others 0 Rank Name Votes Year 1 Simon Busuttil 68,782 2009 2 Miriam Dalli 63,438 2019 3 Simon Busuttil 58,899 2004 4 Alfred Sant 48,739 2014 5 Roberta Metsola 38,206 2019 *The quota was based on the election of five seats. Midway in the legislature Malta obtained a sixth seat hat was awarded to Labour candidate Joseph Cuschieri, who was the last person standing at the last count. **Based on MaltaToday's March survey results; Third parties and independents are collectively grouped under others. European Parliament Elections - Quota Share on First Count Top 5 Highest Polling Candidates 0.13 0.14 2024** 0 0.32 0 0 2.98 3.7 6 2019 6 3.8 2.65 0.19 0.07 0 0.21 0.05 0.22 2.43 2014 6 3.74 2.8 0.14 0.09 Seats Won 2004 5 2.91 2.39 0.56 0.04 0.11 0 0.06 0 2009* 5 3.29