Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1520358
5 maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 8 MAY 2024 NEWS too loudly governance and other catego- ries with a variety of personal grievances, which the party may be addressing at a micro level. It could also include voters who harbour nostalgia for the 'best of times' under Joseph Muscat. The existence of the latter category of Labour voters is confirmed by the drop in ab- stention in March when Joseph Muscat was actively entertain- ing the prospect of standing as a candidate and the increase in abstention in the last two weeks of April when this hope was fad- ing away. A timeline of surveys shows that within the cohort of 2022 Labour voters abstention de- creased from 34.2% in February to 14% in March only to in- crease again to 23% in the latest survey. But even here it would be a mistake to assume that all for- mer Labourites support the for- mer leader. In fact, a survey in March showed that 40% of non-voters did not want Muscat to stand as a candidate while only 24% agreed. Moreover, this category probably also includes apathet- ic Labour voters who consider MEP elections a waste of time. The good news for Labour is that this category of Labour vot- ers intent on not voting in the mid-terms is mobile and prone to changing its mind. In fact, it is the only category which so far has a bearing on the expected result. If they stay at home, Labour will lose the super majority. If they vote en-masse, the party would be on track for another spectacular victory. The bad news for Robert Ab- ela is that Joseph Muscat now has him by the balls. Muscat has the power to scupper his ma- jority on the eve of this crucial electoral test. In his Facebook post on Mon- day when it became clear that he will be charged, Muscat threatened those who "looked the other way instead of fixing" the injustice he claims to be suf- fering. It could be interpreted as a veiled reference to the Prime Minister and if so, it would have sent shivers down Abela's spine. But to keep Muscat on board until 8 June, Abela also risks pissing off other categories of presently dormant non-voters including some Labour voters who resent Muscat's legacy of privatisations, from which, in this case, the country gained absolutely nothing. Walking a tight rope In short, Robert Abela needs to roar like a lion to get the La- bour vote out without scaring other categories of non-voters particularly middle of the road voters disgusted by the hospi- tals scandal. Similarly, Bernard Grech needs to be careful not to polar- ise the election to the extent of contributing to a retrenchment of Labour voters. These dynamics are clearly at play in the current controversy on the timing of the magisterial inquiry. This explains Abela's behav- iour in the past days which first saw him lashing out at the magistrate's timing as 'politi- cal terrorism' and subsequent- ly downplaying this comment while redirecting his anger at an abstract 'establishment'. In the psyche of Labour voters, the 'establishment' constantly rigs the game against the party they support. This enables Abela to play the under-dog card. Abela has also been careful to attack the timing of the inquiry whose conclusions were pre- sented on the day the Electoral Commission started accepting nominations, rather than em- bark on an unconditional de- fence of his predecessor. But this could change if the inquiry is published before the election. The Attorney General did not have much choice but to file criminal charges, but the stark reality is that Muscat is being arraigned on Abela's watch. This is why Abela's balancing act is now severely tested. While the pain and anger felt among Muscat supporters could in- crease turn out among Labour voters, it risks unleashing forces which are beyond Abela's con- trol. Moreover, some Muscat supporters may blame Abela for abandoning their beloved lead- er. For in his balancing act be- tween so many conflicting pres- sures, Robert Abela is showing signs of losing his focus with the Opposition taking the initiative for the first time since Abela's equally convoluted U-turn on the Jean Paul Sofia inquiry. Even the PL's electoral slogan, 'Is-Sahha lill-Maltin', has been outwitted by the Opposition, which is finally showing some signs of vitality. Will this be enough to narrow the gap? Much depends on the abili- ty of the PN to resist its usual temptation to go overboard by raising the stakes and thus look- ing smug, power hungry and vindictive. February March April PL voters in 2022 34.2 14.4 23 PN voters in 2022 22.7 13.5 14.6 Non voters in 2022 67.8 71.8 77.8 Total 38.5 23 29 % of non voters in MaltaToday MEP election surveys The bad news for Robert Abela is that Joseph Muscat now has him by the balls. Muscat has the power to scupper his majority on the eve of this crucial electoral test.