Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1521709
YOU'D never guess just from reading all the local press cov- erage: but there's a heck of a lot more riding on next weekend's election, than the mere question of whether 'Labour will get more EP seats in the European Parlia- ment, than the PN'. Indeed, you could argue that there is a lot more to this elec- tion, than even the European Parliament itself. Among other things, there is also the choice of who (if anyone at all) will re- place Ursula von der Leyen as outgoing European Commis- sion President: a decision that may radically alter Europe's entire political landscape, for the foreseeable future. Oh, and there's also the small matter of whether all Europe's so-called 'mainstream' political parties – specifically, members of the EPP, PES, Greens, Liber- als, etc. – will even survive the aftermath, of what promises to be an electoral bloodbath (and the prospects are not looking particularly good, right now, for the last two on that list…) Simply put: this election is no longer about 'choosing can- didates to represent us in the European Parliament'; it's now about 'choosing which political direction the entire European Union is about to take'. And in good-old EU fashion: it turns out not to be very much of a 'choice', at all! As things stand, there are only two plausible outcomes of next weekend's election. (OK, twist my arm: maybe three… but I'll come back to that one later). Europe will either swing, wholesale, all the way to the Extreme Right; or, at best, it will swing to a point on the political compass that is not quite as 'extreme'; but pretty far right, all the same. And in case you are (under- standably enough) reluctant to simply take my word for it… most of what I just wrote emerges directly from various surveys, conducted in various parts of Europe, that ALL pre- dict a massive drop in support for mainstream parties; and a corresponding surge in sup- port for the Extreme Right. More worryingly [note: I am well aware that I represent a minority, when I express con- cern at the prospect of a resur- gent 'Fascist Europe'; but what the heck? I'm the one writing this article; so you'll just have to put up with my biases for a while] most of those surveys al- so indicate that Extreme Right parties might even end up en- joying a collective MAJORITY, in the incoming European Par- liament. That is to say: the EPP might no longer be the largest polit- ical group in the EP, after this election; which also means it wouldn't be in a position to (al- most) unilaterally appoint the next European Commission President, as it did five years ago. Now: just to be clear, those Extreme Right parties would still have to reach an agree- ment, between themselves, if they are to proceed from 'en- joying a parliamentary major- ity', to actually becoming 'the single largest political family in Europe' (thus wielding prac- tically all the EU's major deci- sion-making processes, almost single-handedly). And while that may prove to be a stumbling block – es- pecially considering how di- vergent some of those parties actually are, on key policy mat- ters – it would still catapult what was previously a 'fringe' political movement, into the equivalent of Europe's undis- puted 'king-makers'. Under those circumstances, forming a majority in the Euro- pean Parliament would have to involve 'roping in the Extreme Right', to at least some degree or other. Needless to say, this has not escaped the attention of either the Extreme Right itself; or of all Europe's other main- stream parties (some of which will probably be sitting at the negotiation table with them, in just over a week's time.) Already, then, it can be seen that a 'swing to the Right' is more or less inevitable, at this stage. So the only question left is: 'how far to the Right, exact- ly, will the pendulum swing?' Well, the answer depends on various, interrelated factors. Let's start with the obvious: just how well are these far-right parties expected to perform, in this particular election? Let's say, for argument's sake, that they DO end up controlling an outright major- ity of seats in the EP. In that case, the answer would de- pend on whether Viktor Orban is successful in his efforts to convince France's Marine Le Pen and Italy's Giorgia Meloni to form what he calls a 'right- wing EU super-group'. In the Hungarian prime min- ister's own words: "the future of the sovereignist camp in Eu- rope, and of the right in gener- al, now rests in the hands of two women," and "[if the French far-right figurehead and Italian leader work together] within a single group or a coalition, they will be a force for Europe." Make no mistake: the word 'force' is not to be underesti- mated. Always assuming these predictions come true: Or- ban, Le Pen and Meloni (and all their henchmen/minions) would find themselves occupy- ing the same position currently held by the EPP. They would, in a word, be the ones appoint- ing the next Commission Pres- ident (hint: it won't be Ursula); and – much more importantly – they'd be the ones to lay out the EU's basic legal/political direction, for all other EU insti- tutions (including the Courts of Justice) to implement. By extension: they will also maltatoday | SUNDAY • 2 JUNE 2024 10 OPINION Whatever the outcome of this election: Europe will swing to the right Raphael Vassallo