Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1521709
12 ANALYSIS maltatoday | SUNDAY • 2 JUNE 2024 LABOUR leader Robert Abela started the year by warming up to his prede- cessor, Joseph Muscat, whom he de- scribed as a 'dear friend' at a rally at the Orpheum Theatre in Gżira, a day after a reshuffle aimed at reinvigorating his government amidst polls showing re- cord abstention among Labour voters. In so doing, Abela raised expectations for Muscat's loyalists, opening a door that he couldn't afford to close again without paying a hefty price. It was clearly a signal to the party's grassroots that Muscat was still welcome, and Ab- ela's way of dashing rumours of a fallout with his predecessor. Ever since being elected party leader on a promise of continuity, and beat- ing Chris Fearne on the back of support from Muscat loyalists, Abela has walked a tightrope, aware that he still owed his legitimacy to the electoral mandate given to Muscat in 2017. He did so by kicking out rotten apples like Konrad Mizzi, while refraining from expressing any political verdict on his predecessor, whose legacy remained unchallenged in the party. This strategy worked insofar as Abe- la was elected on his own steam with a super-majority in 2022. Abela no longer owed his tenure in power to Muscat. But instead of using his newly-gained legitimacy to consolidate his leadership and detach himself from Muscat, Abe- la seemed keen on letting sleeping dogs lie. Abela even missed a golden oppor- tunity to distance himself from Muscat after the law courts declared the hospi- tal deal fraudulent in February 2023, to create a buffer between the party and Muscat's legal and political responsibil- ities. The spectre haunting Abela Abela's declaration of 'friendship' made in January was not made in a vac- uum. It coincided with mounting spec- ulation that the publication of a magis- terial inquiry into the hospital scandal was imminent. This was already then a major headache for Abela, who was bracing for mid-term MEP and local elections with polls showing record lev- els of abstention among Labour voters, which risked significantly reducing La- bour's super-majority in the approach- ing election. His calculation may well have been that in MEP elections, where turnout is bound to be low, it is the party that is most effective in mobilising its core voters that is best poised to win. And what is a more powerful weapon to galvanise core voters than the charis- matic Muscat? Yet, even an astute politician as Abela is well aware that this would come at a cost, embroiling the party in Muscat's own pending judicial battles. Abela himself acknowledged this risk on January 26, questioning whether the timing of the inquiry was designed to cause the Labour Party maximum dam- age prior to the European elections. By suggesting he has no control over the timing of any judicial inquiry, Ab- ela pre-emptively unleashed the Mus- cat weapon so as to ensure full support from the former leader's loyal crowd, even in the eventuality of an arraign- ment happening under his watch. Back into the limelight Leaving a door ajar for some sort of Muscat comeback in the party, Abe- la has also raised the expectations of Muscat loyalists, who immediately took Abela to task by proposing Muscat as a candidate for the MEP elections. The effort was spearheaded by party propagandist Emanuel Cuschieri, who had been ostracised from the party me- dia in October 2022, only to be given a radio slot again in April 2023. Instead of silencing the vociferous crowd of adulators, Muscat chose to entertain the possibility for weeks, with Abela never publicly excluding the eventuality of the former PM run- ning for MEP, going as far as putting the onus on the former leader by say- ing that "if his (Muscat's) answer is yes, why should I say no to him?" However, in a hint that Abela was not enthusiastic about the former leader taking the lime- light from him, a few days later Michelle Muscat put the onus back on the party, by saying that the decision on whether her husband would contest was "up to the Labour Party". Ultimately, Muscat found a way to re- main in the limelight without having to contest the elections. Addressing a public meeting organised by MEP Alex Agius Saliba, he set the tone for his po- litical activism in the next weeks by tell- ing an enthusiastic crowd in Pjazza Tri- toni that "the question is not whether Joseph is running or not... the question is whether you will go out to vote." In this way, Muscat artfully managed to project himself as the magnanimous former leader who, instead of seeking personal glory to win a record number of votes, had decided to selflessly ded- icate himself to campaigning for the party, in a bid to win back disgruntled Labour voters now intent on not voting. Muscat's parallel campaign Muscat managed to then run his own parallel electoral campaign, dispens- ing his benediction to Labour's crop of MEP candidates while shielding himself with the adulation of supporters, in the face of impending judicial troubles. While this formula saved Abela from being outshone by a former leader in an election which offered Muscat a cer- tainty of a record number of votes, it still created a sideshow in which Mus- cat, not Abela, called the shots. By remaining in the limelight and be- ing regularly invited to public events hosted by MEP candidates eager for Muscat's blessing, the former Labour leader is now in a better position to fend off the greatest danger he faces: a slow erosion in the respect he enjoys within the party which shields him. To some extent the relationship be- tween Muscat and these candidates is transactional. For in return for ingra- tiating these candidates to his crowd, Muscat benefits from the legitimacy they give him within the party. Muscat also knows that a looming election gives him some leverage over Abela, for just as much as he can help Abela by rallying core voters, he can al- so scupper his super-majority if he feels betrayed. In a Facebook post on May 6, Muscat ambiguously warned anyone who "looked the other way instead of fixing" the injustice he claims to be suf- fering, in what could have been a veiled reference to the Prime Minister. But apart from this singular episode, Muscat has stuck to his self-appointed role of crowd-puller for MEP candi- dates. Muscat's enduring popularity And this raises one important ques- tion: Why does Muscat remain a crowd-puller despite an inquiry sug- gesting that at best he was an imbecile who allowed the wolves to enter his office to plunder the country… and at worst…. that he was the mastermind of a grand theft? Superficially many commentators put this to an exploitation of ignorance and sheer manipulation. In reality, it is be- cause the 'best of times' narrative was reflected in material gains and visibility for people who were previously ignored and cancelled. And crucially, he culti- vated an ideology which tied the eman- cipation of the masses with an econom- ic model driven by the greed of the few, and the exploitation of transient for- eigners. While the trickle-down effect was lim- ited and wages stagnated, Muscatian economics rely on an increased tax rev- enue to increase government spending without increasing the tax burden. In JAMES DEBONO jdebono@mediatoday.com.mt