Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1522769
8 maltatoday | THURSDAY • 19 JUNE 2024 ANALYSIS PN's gains: Stepping stone The PN has emerged from local and MEP elections stronger and more united. But is this the first stage of a recovery leading to a change of government or will the greater likelihood of general election victory increase scrutiny on its shortcomings as a government in waiting? JAMES DEBONO tries to unravel the conundrum. A week is a long time in poli- tics, let alone three whole years, which separate Maltese voters from the next general elections scheduled for 2027. But by narrowing the gap with Labour in the mid-term elec- tions, the Nationalist Party has eliminated one enormous psy- chological obstacle: the wide- spread perception that a PN victory in 2027 is a pipe dream. The reality is that the PN no longer starts from minus 39,400, as was the case until the 8 June elections. It now starts the race somewhere between the minus 8,500 in MEP elec- tions and the minus 20,000 in concurrent local elections. This turns the next general election into a more open con- test where the PN will start at a disadvantage but with a more realistic chance of winning. While in the midterms any vote against Labour contrib- uted to clipping the wings of the super majority, something which was appealing to both Nationalist, independent and even some Labour voters, in the next general election vot- ers will determine whether the PN represents the change they want to see. It is now the PN's job not to raise red flags which could repel voters from it. Talent and money The results help the PN to withstand inevitable attacks on its credentials as a govern- ment in waiting. The more op- timistic the PN's outlook is the more the party can attract new talent. However, a lot depends on how the PN can channel this new enthusiasm and trans- late it into better policies and stronger candidacies. The entry of new people with different sensibilities also risks undermining the precarious balance between liberals and conservatives in a party that has yet to resolve its longstand- ing identity problems. After re- storing unity in the party, Ber- nard Grech will be increasingly wary of any sign of internal di- vision. The sheer fact that a PN vic- tory is more likely than it was before the midterms, could also result in more donations, some of which will undoubtedly try to influence the policies of a future PN government. This raises the question on how far the PN will go in securing a greater war chest by accepting donations from the same big business groups that benefitted from Labour's policies. Spotlight on policy Moreover, the positive rever- sal of fortunes for the PN will also result in greater scrutiny of both the shadow cabinet and the party's policies. For the past decade people have tak- en PN policies with a pinch of salt, knowing that these were destined to be forgotten. From now on people will be weighing whether they stand to benefit from these policies. People, including major lob- bies, will be asking how a change in government would impact their livelihoods, in- comes, profits, hobbies, and lifestyle. Questions will range from whether the PN will re- tain current subsidies on en- ergy to whether the party will keep cannabis clubs open, and from whether the party will change local plans to restrain development to whether it will reduce the tax burden. In answering these questions, the PN will have to careful- ly navigate between demands for change and the yearning for stability. The PN will have to clearly reassure people on which areas it will guarantee continuity and which areas it will reform. The leadership contest One major consequence of the PN's gains in MEP and local elections is that Bernard Grech is now the undisputed leader. This puts an end to a period of turmoil in a party riven by factional conflict. But this also means that the PN will be led by the same leader who lost to Abela in 2022. And while in the midterms, the spotlight was on Labour's shortcomings in power, in the next general election voters will be asking who makes the best prime minister in a choice between Abela and Grech. And while the PN's gains have probably boosted Grech's stat- ure among the party faithful, Grech will need a trust boost among non-committed voters to have a real shot at winning. So far, surveys have shown that Abela is more trusted than Grech and that a significant chunk of the population trusts