Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1524298
3 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 21 JULY 2024 ANALYSIS Expression of Interest Brand Marketing and PR For more info visit micas.art/get-involved or contact people@micas.art micas.art Closing at noon on Tuesday 6 th August 2024 Consultant premiership could be slipping in power for 11 years. In that cy- cle, Gonzi made his own prede- cessor President of the Republic and sealed his departure from active politics, but today Joseph Muscat is surrounded by his own loyalist circles and is very much part of the political game. Indeed, Gonzi took over from Fenech Adami after his glori- ous exit in the wake of EU ac- cession; Abela took over from a disgraced leader with an axe to grind and who is now desperate to protect his legacy after being arraigned over corruption on the watch of his successor. The downward spiral Curiously, despite his strong parliamentary majority after getting elected by a staggering 55% majority just two years ago, Abela's position in the party increasingly looks like that of Gonzi in his final years marked by internal unrest. The fact that two Labour MEPs felt comfortable vot- ing against Abela's instruction to support Roberta Metsola's candidature for EP President suggests that the PM's word is not final, and party officials are no longer bound by party dis- cipline. The insubordination could be contagious and has even seeped to the local level, as was the case in Birkirkara where Labour's most popular coun- cillor, voted against the party instructions to elect an inde- pendent mayor (a one-time La- bour councillor). Ironically, the internal flak Abela is receiving for ordering his MEPs to support Metsola is also reminiscent of the flak re- ceived by Gonzi within his own party after he had proposed Robert Abela's own father George as President. This sug- gests that any move by Abela to win back the middle ground is bound to trigger opposition among tribalists. What is most remarkable in Abela's fall from grace is the speed at which this is all hap- pening. For Abela's troubles only began last year mainly as a reaction to his initial opposi- tion and subsequent U-turn on demands for a public inquiry into the Jean Paul Sofia death. The reasons behind the implosion One reason for this is that Labour, like the PN before it, is no longer the homogenous party composed exclusively of party diehards. Abela finds himself struggling to appease core voters without alienating middle of the road voters, and he clearly failed the test when attacking the judiciary follow- ing the arraignment of Muscat over the Vitals scandal. Laboour now finds it very hard to reconcile its vaguely socialist commitments while presiding over an economic powerhouse which, to some ex- tent, depends on the exploita- tion of cheap foreign labour and endless construction. Like Gonzi in 2008, Abela is increasingly caught between growing public umbrage at the construction industry and be- ing part and parcel of an eco- system in which politicians are very much at ease with con- struction magnates. Ironically Abela himself formed part of the Planning Authority's legal team when Gonzi embarked on reforming this institution, with limited success. And like Gonzi, Abela might be keen to dispel the percep- tion that he is in cahoots with property developers, but he also fears these magnates will shift to the PN just as they did when they came to Labour in 2013. And this explains Abe- la's constant U-turns and in- decision when faced by angry residents protesting predatory construction. But it is still amply clear that Joseph Muscat wields enough influence through a parallel leadership network inside La- bour, that can increasingly undermine Abela's authority. It is no surprise that most La- bour MEP candidates, with the notable exception of Thomas Bajada and Steve Ellul, actively sought the benediction of the former leader. Abela must have by now real- ised that the current situation is not sustainable. One impor- tant lesson he can learn from Gonzi is not to abandon the party by exclusively focusing on government. The absence of an open in- ternal debate explains the PN's failure to read the signs on the ground before 2013. It could also explain Labour's failure to anticipate its drop in support in June's MEP elections. With an election due in three years' time, Abela still has time to recover. But this clock is ticking fast, probably at a fast- er rate than Gonzi's during his decline.