Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1527188
JAMES DEBONO jdebono@mediatoday.com.mt mt SURVEY maltatoday | SUNDAY • 29 SEPTEMBER 2024 Trust Barometer: Abela leads Grech by 16 points 30% of current PN voters would still vote for the Opposition even if they do not trust either Bernard Grech or Robert Abela to run the country PRIME Minister Robert Abela is still significantly more trusted to run the country than Opposition leader Bernard Grech despite the Labour Party trailing in the polls by four points. The MaltaToday Trust Barometer shows that Abela is trusted by 42.6%, while Grech's rating stands at 26.6%. The results show that 30.7% trust neither of the two political leaders. From this survey, MaltaToday has amended its standard Trust Barometer question to ask who respondents trust more to run the country rather than the previous question that simply asked whom they trusted more between the two leaders. In the last survey held at the beginning of June, on the eve of the MEP election, Abela had a generic trust rating of 37.6% and a lead of 12 points over Grech. This suggests that Abela's trust advan- tage increases when voters are presented with a stark choice about who they trust most in a position of power. However, Grech's poor trust rating is not deterring a sizable number of voters who trust neither of the two leaders from voting for the Opposition in a forthcom- ing general election. Grech is only trusted by 67% of his cur- rent voters, 30% of whom trust neither leader. This stands in sharp contrast to Abela's 97% rating among current La- bour voters. Interestingly, nearly 4% of current PN voters trust Abela more than Grech to run the country but still intend to vote PN. In contrast, only 2% of current PL vot- ers trust Grech more than their party leader. What is definitely bad news for the Nationalists is Grech's extremely low standing among current non-voters – a strategic category where the PN needs to make inroads to secure victory in the next general election. In this sizable cate- gory, which includes nearly one in every four voters, only 4% trust Grech to run the country, while 34% trust Abela. This suggests that Labour has more room to grow in this vital category than the PN does. Abela leads Grech in all Maltese regions Despite Labour trailing the PN in four out of six regions, Abela leads Grech in all regions. However, his lead over Grech ranges from 45 points in the South-Eastern re- gion to just 3.6 points in Gozo and 3.3 points in the North Harbour region. While the Prime Minister's trust rating peaks in the South-Eastern region, where he is trusted by a staggering 61% of re- spondents, Grech's popularity peaks in Gozo, where he is trusted by 33%. The highest percentage of voters who trust neither of the two leaders is found in the North Harbour region, where 31% trust neither Grech nor Abela to run the country, followed by the Western region, where 30% trust neither leader. Young people shun Grech Both leaders are least trusted among 16- to 35-year-olds. However, in this age group, Abela is trusted by 39% of voters, while Grech is only trusted by 13%. Despite Grech's poor trust rating, 31% of young voters will still vote PN. Grech's trust rating improves with age, rising to 19% among 36- to 50-year-olds and to 35% among those over 65. Abela's trust rating also increases with age, from 38% among 16- to 35-year-olds to 46% among those over 65. The only category of voters where Grech is more trusted is among ter- tiary-educated voters, where he enjoys a five-point lead over Abela. However, in this category, 45% trust neither of the two leaders. But Abela is definitively more trusted than Grech among those with a post-secondary lev- el of education, amongst which Abela is even more popular than his own party. While only 29% of voters in this cate- gory will be voting Labour, Abela is seen as the most trusted leader by nearly 42%. This suggests that although the PL is trailing the PN by five points, the PL has more room to grow in this category of voters. Abela enjoys an even higher trust rat- ing among those with a secondary level of education (50%) and those with a pri- mary level of education (70.5%). The survey was carried out between 11 September and 19 September for which 712 people opted to complete the survey. Stratified random sampling based on region, gender and age was used. A fraction of those who opted to complete the survey chose not to answer a few of the questions for which they are treated as missing values. Missing values analysis was then carried to determine the type of technique to replace the values. A combination of logistic and line arregression with predictive mean matching where applicable was used to replace certain missing values completing and enlarging the sample set from which the final results were extracted. The margin of error for this result is 3.67% for a confidence interval of 95%. Demographic, sub-group breakdowns and extrapolations have significantly larger margins of error.