Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1527188
11 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 29 SEPTEMBER 2024 ANALYSIS defence commissioner and Malta defence minister Boris Pistorius warned that Russia could be ready for military aggression against an EU country or NATO member "within five to eight years" from now. It is this "grim reality" that has conditioned European Commis- sion President Ursula von der Leyen to give defence and securi- ty a very high priority in the new Brussels executive, according to former deputy commander of the Armed Forces of Malta, Col David P. Attard. For the first time, an EU com- missioner will be responsible for a specific portfolio for defence and space. In her mission letter to Andrius Kubilius, the commissioner-des- ignate, Von der Leyen wrote: "The rising and complex nature of threats facing Europe have point- ed to the need for Europe to take the next step on defence. We need to reflect on the future European security architecture, and we need to invest in our own security and defence." Attard says Russia's invasion of Ukraine was a rude awakening for Europe. "The defence of the continent has today become most pressing and EU member states must have resources for their defence in or- der to deter and stop any other State or non-state actor from di- recting any aggression against one or more EU countries," he says. Although the EU is not a collec- tive defence organisation, Attard believes there is much that it can do to strengthen defence resourc- es by focusing on areas such as the production, research and devel- opment of military hardware and equipment, being self-sustaining in logistics, creating the necessary defence support infrastructure and building the necessary mili- tary transit corridors across the continent. "There is the need to rebuild the indigenous European defence industry to enable EU member states to handle any long-term military aggression and long-term war, such as Ukraine is experienc- ing right now," he says. A long and difficult mandate This logic is reflected in Von der Leyen's mission letter to Kubilius, which calls for a White Paper on the Future of European Defence in the first 100 days of the mandate. The Brussels chief also laid out key aspects of the mandate, including strengthening military mobility, creating a single market for de- fence products and services, foster joint procurement of European equipment, pursue further stand- ardisation and harmonisation of defence assets, and propose de- fence projects of common Europe- an interest, including a European air shield and cyber defence. Fulfilling this mandate will not be an easy task since defence re- mains pretty much a national competence within the EU. Von der Leyen affirmed as much in her letter: "Member States will always be responsible for their armed forces – from doctrine to deploy- ment. This is the absolute founda- tion for every European nation." Within this context, Malta will also have to consider what role to play. Given its status as a neutral country, Malta has always been coy on defence matters. To this day, it is the only EU country to opt out of PESCO (Permanent Structured Cooperation), a struc- ture intended to deepen defence cooperation between member states. Nonetheless, Maltese military personnel have joined EU peace keeping and security missions, such as the Red Sea operation to defend merchant ships from Houthi attacks. The question is how far will Mal- ta go to deepen its participation in defence-related matters at EU lev- el over the next five years. Malta and defensive projects Attard acknowledges that there are enormous limitations as to the areas where Malta can directly benefit from economies of scale when pursuing its national pro- curement of defence and security equipment and its harmonisation throughout the EU. However, he says the country can "ill afford not to be participative in principle or worse to be perceived as disinter- ested in these projects". "Our geo-political position at the southern periphery of front- line-Europe and as an island na- tion that is highly dependent on sea lines of communication ren- ders us very vulnerable especially in times of war," he says. Attard has no doubt that Malta should be part of select defensive projects of Common European Interest. "I emphasise the word defensive projects," he reiterates, citing as an example the strength- ening of the multilayer air and missile defence systems of EU Member States through a Europe- an Air Shield. He says this project has been identified among the most urgent military capability gaps together with cyber defence that needs to be addressed. "Whilst the Council of the Eu- ropean Union, in its conclusions on security and defence adopted on 27 May 2024, looked forward to a proposal for a dedicated EU airspace strategy for security and defence with a view to its adoption in 2025, to date, Malta has not sig- nalled its intention to participate in this initiative," Attard notes with concern. He points out that the conflict in the Middle East and the war in Ukraine have laid bare the im- pact the proliferation of ballistic missiles and drones is having on conflict. "Closer to home, during the Libya crisis of 2011, the extreme possibility of having Lampedu- sa, Malta or Hurd Bank targeted by Libyan ballistic missiles was a matter that was given due consid- eration and accordingly appropri- ate mitigation measures were un- dertaken," Attard notes. The cyber threat But it is not just the risk of con- ventional military aggression that should be considered, he adds. In an age of growing reliance on space technology for basic servic- es such as the Global Positioning Systems, space satellites have be- come part of the European Crit- ical Infrastructure as are cyber networks. Cyberspace has no borders, he warns, citing recent cyber-attacks on energy providing networks, transport infrastructure and space assets as examples of risks posed to civilian and military infrastruc- ture. "There is a growing need within the EU to further enhance co-op- eration and investment in cyber defence in order to better protect, detect, deter, and defend against a growing number of cyber-at- tacks," Attard says. He believes Malta needs to ac- tively boost its cyber defence ca- pabilities both at a national level and within the EU framework by strengthening coordination and cooperation between the military and civilian cyber communities. "This should ensure that we have efficient cyber crisis management capabilities at a national level and within the EU," he says. Without wanting to duplicate the work of NATO, the EU will seek more strategic autonomy, es- pecially if Donald Trump is elect- ed president in the US. However, whether the new defence commissioner will get member states to act in unison on defence matters over the next five years is one of the biggest ques- tions hanging over Von der Ley- en's second term. What role Malta will play, pret- ty much depends on the doctrine government will adopt in an ev- er-changing global and regional scenario and the risks to security this will pose. The Armed Forces of Malta has around 2,000 personnel (Photo: AFM/Facebook) The AFM is part of the UN peacekeeping mission in Lebanon (Photo: AFM/ Facebook)