Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1527188
mt SURVEY SUNDAY • 29 SEPTEMBER 2024 | maltatoday FROM PREVIOUS PAGE What is sure, however, is that the PN has substantially narrowed or wiped out La- bour's 39,000-vote advantage in the 2022 general election. The survey was conducted in the period when the PL was electing its two deputy lead- ers and other members of the administration and executive, following a summer of inter- nal turbulence. Compared to the 2022 gen- eral election, the survey sug- gests that the PL has lost a staggering 45,035 votes, which are now mostly parked in the non-voters camp. How- ever, the PN has only gained 6,138 votes while non-voters have increased by 26,236. A comparison with vote tal- lies from the June MEP elec- tion shows the PL practically retaining the same number of votes. In contrast, the PN gains 20,000 votes, mostly thanks to a higher turnout among its 2022 voters, in- cluding some who missed the MEP election but would vote for the PN in a general elec- tion. The survey also suggests that support for third parties in a forthcoming general elec- tion would rise to 8%, split be- tween 4.5%, who would vote for ADPD and 3.5% for other parties. PN retains more votes One major reason for the PN's lead is its higher re- tention rate of 2022 general election voters. While the PL barely retains 69% of its for- mer voters, the PN retains 81% of its 2022 voters. More- over, while Labour retains 78% of its MEP election vot- ers, the PN retains 80%. Significantly, while the PN loses 12.5% of its 2022 voters and 15% of its MEP election voters to abstention, PL losses to the non-voting camp in- crease to 22% among its 2022 voters and to 17% among its MEP election voters. Moreover, Labour's losses to abstention are topped up by smaller losses to the PN. While the PN loses only 2% of its 2022 voters to Labour, it gains 6% of Labour voters from the same general elec- tion. Furthermore, Labour loses 3% of its MEP election voters to the PN, while the PL gains only 1% of PN voters. The PN also makes greater inroads than Labour among non-vot- ers in the 2022 general elec- tion, 26% of whom will now vote PN compared to just 6% who will vote Labour. And while only 15% of non-voters in last June's MEP elections will now vote PL, 20% will vote PN. The survey also shows that the PN is making greater inroads among third-party voters in recent MEP elec- tions. While only 13% of these voters will vote Labour now, 26% will vote PN. However, a substantial 38% of these vot- ers will still vote for a third party in a forthcoming gen- eral election. The survey al- so shows that ADPD, which barely scraped the 1% mark in MEP elections, is now tak- ing a substantial chunk of the third-party vote (22%) in these elections. This suggests the Greens have managed to survive the latest setback and are polling at nearly 4.5%, possibly in their role as Mal- ta's default third party. PN leads in four out of six regions The survey shows that the PN has taken the lead in the Northern, North Har- bour, Western, and Gozo regions, while the PL still leads by a wide margin in the South-eastern region and by a lower margin in the South Harbour. The PN's support peaks in the Northern and North Har- bour regions, where the party commands a relative majority of 45% of the total number of voters, including non-voters. The party also leads in Gozo (41%) and the Western region (38%). In Gozo, the only region corresponding to an elector- al district, the PN is leading Labour by nine points. This is particularly significant in view of Labour gains in this district in the last three gen- eral elections. However, the survey finds that support for Labour re- mains solid in the South-east- ern region, where the par- ty commands an absolute majority of 53% and has a 33-point lead over the PN, which barely scrapes the 20% mark in this district. Labour's lead decreases to 11 points in the South Har- bour region, which includes Labour's Cottonera strong- holds and nearby towns. Sig- Voting intentions by age Voting intentions by education Voting intentions by gender