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14 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 3 NOVEMBER 2024 US ELECTION Strongmen like Putin will feel emboldened Trump's highly personalised 'diplomacy' – arm-twisting, unpredictable tweets directed at other world leaders, and his chemistry with fellow strong- men – could further erode the notion of multilateral- ism, which runs counter to an 'America First' approach. This approach could also weaken NATO, which Trump may sidestep in favour of di- rect dealings with Vladimir Putin's Russia. Such an ap- proach might lead to an un- derstanding that could defuse tensions and reduce the risk of nuclear conflict. However, this could come at a price: Russia might be rewarded for its aggression, with Ukraine paying in terms of territory. Furthermore, Trump may be outsmarted by Putin, whose appetite grows with each con- cession made to him. Trump claims Putin would not have risked attacking Ukraine if he were in the White House, implying that he would have dissuaded him from doing so by simply talk- ing him out of it. But this im- plies that his foreign policy would be dictated by person- al chemistry with strongmen. And it may well lead to a more volatile world where deals between powerful lead- ers take precedence over long-standing alliances and international law. Although Trump positions himself as a non-interventionist, wary of committing the US to foreign wars, his aggressive stance towards China and Iran could ignite geopolitical tensions. In short, electing Trump may unleash a raging bull in a china shop. However, like any previous president, he could be restrained by state officials and staff, as was of- ten the case during his first term. The concern is that this time round Trump may be more inclined to weaken these checks and balances. Netanyahu will find it easier to finish what he started under Biden During the current Middle East war Trump praised Ben- jamin Netanyahu for doing "a good job" and criticised Biden for holding him back. He suggested that the Gaza Strip would make excellent beachfront property for devel- opment. Reportedly calling on Netanyahu to finish the war before he take office in Janu- ary, a Trump administration is expected to give Israel a freer hand in maintaining a perma- nent presence in Gaza. But lately Trump, who pre- viously enacted an executive order banning people from six Muslim-majority countries, has opportunistically tapped into discontent over Gaza, without ever criticising Israel, by opportunistically courting conservative Islamic clerics in Michigan, a swing state with a large Muslim community. In this sense, Harris's at- tempt to attract Republican voters by aligning with figures like Dick Cheney, an architect of the Iraq invasion, has made it easier to depict Harris as a warmonger. Trump's transphobic mes- saging has also resonated with segments of conservative Muslim voters. But his pro-Israel stance is conditional on Jewish loyalty: to the extent that he has re- peatedly rebuked Jewish vot- ers who support Democrats despite his strong support for Israel. And curiously Trump has only fallen out with Netan- yahu once after the Israeli PM had congratulated Biden upon his 2020 election victory. Trump could also claim that he was closer than Biden to brokering an agreement be- tween Israel and Saudi Ara- bia, likely due to his chemistry with both Netanyahu and King Salman. Yet by sidelining Palestinian interests, this rapprochement has contributed to despair in Palestinian territories, which erupted in the October mas- sacre. Saudi Arabia has clarified it would not recognise Israel without a Palestinian state, a condition Trump disregarded by recognising Jerusalem, in- cluding the occupied half, as Israel's capital in 2020 – a step opposed by previous US pres- idents. Netanyahu, emboldened by Trump, may feel encouraged to complete his agenda: the forced displacement of Pales- tinians from Gaza and areas in the West Bank earmarked for settlers. But Trump will expect eternal gratitude from Israel and Jewish voters for doing so. Successful Trumpism will boost the far right and weaken the EU Despite Trump's isolation- ism, 'Trumpism' has become a global phenomenon, ampli- fied by major influencers, male YouTubers, and global media figures like billionaire Elon Musk, who recently clashed with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer over comments linked to racial tensions. Trump also enjoys admiration from far- right leaders like Hungary's Viktor Orban, who may feel emboldened to challenge the centrist consensus in Brussels. By pressuring EU member states to increase their NA- TO contributions and poten- tially forcing them to assume full responsibility for Ukraine, Trump could push the EU to a breaking point as electorates grow weary of the perceived burden. Moreover, pragmatic right- wing leaders like Italy's Gior- gia Meloni may assert them- selves more independently of EU and NATO obligations. While Trump is not responsi- ble for the rise of the far right in Europe – driven largely by left-behind communities feel- ing a loss of control – a Trump victory could further normal- ise extremist discourse, from mass deportations to climate denial and crackdowns on "the enemy within". A new right-wing consensus is unlikely to foster deeper cooperation between similar- ly-minded governments, as national interests could pre- vent consensus on contentious issues like tariffs, with Trump likely to penalise European companies. Trump has denied humanity's greatest threat: global warming During the campaign, Trump dismissed climate change as "one of the great scams of all time" and sarcastically re- marked that rising sea levels would create "more ocean- front property." He pledged to maximise oil and gas production within the US, aiming for energy self-suf- ficiency while reversing the renewable energy push of the Biden administration. If re-elected, Trump would likely withdraw from the Paris climate agreement again. His focus on tariffs could also pe- nalise clean energy imports into the US. Crucially, US disengage- ment from climate treaties might encourage other coun- tries to follow suit. A Donald Trump second presidency is likely to embolden strongmen like Vladimir Putin and Benjamin Netanyahu, while contributing to further weakening of the EU FROM PREVIOUS PAGE