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8 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 15 DECEMBER 2024 SYRIA'S NEW ERA Too many fingers in the pie? The Turkey: Neo-Ottoman expansion The decline of Iranian influence in Syr- ia has been matched by the rise of Erdo- gan's Turkey, which, although a NATO member, is a vocal critic of both Israel and the US. Since the Arab Spring, Tur- key has sought to assert a hegemonic role reminiscent of the Ottoman era, supporting Islamic movements rooted in the Muslim Brotherhood. Just as Iran employed proxies in the Syrian regime and Hezbollah, Turkey has cultivated its own, notably the Syrian National Army (SNA), and exerts significant influence over the victorious Hayat Tahrir al-Sh- am. Turkey's involvement in Syria is also driven by hostility toward Kurdish re- sistance movements, particularly the People's Defense Units (YPG) and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which control much of north-eastern Syria. While the Kurds gained international respect for their heroic struggle against ISIS, Turkey views them as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), a banned militant left-wing group with- in Turkey. Kurdish groups, which dis- tanced themselves from both the Assad regime and Islamist militias, accuse Tur- key of complicity with extremist groups. Turkey has launched multiple military operations in northern Syria to prevent the establishment of a Kurdish autono- mous region along its southern border. The future of the Kurds in a post-Assad Syria remains uncertain, largely con- tingent on the direction of US policy— whether it continues to support Kurdish forces or shifts towards closer alignment with Turkey. Israel: Scorched earth policy Israel swiftly targeted weapons stock- piles left by the regime and succeeded in obliterating the Syrian navy. More significantly, Israel has advanced into Syrian territory to establish a buffer zone around the Golan Heights, a region that Israel has illegally occupied since the Six-Day War of 1967. Israel's primary interest in Syria is linked to security concerns, particularly regarding the presence of Iranian forces and Hezbollah near its borders. While Israel is emerging victorious in this se- curity battle, decapitating the leadership of Hamas and Hezbollah, the war in Leb- anon has forced Hezbollah to shift its troops from Syria, weakening the Assad regime, which depended on its support. While Israel welcomed the collapse of a key Iranian ally in Syria, it remains isolated in a hostile region, with enmity rooted in the occupation of Palestine and aggravated by the ongoing genocide of Palestinians in Gaza. Rather than build- ing regional alliances by ceding occupied territories, Israeli Prime Minister Benja- min Netanyahu seems keen on creating new buffer zones in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria to protect Israel from its adver- saries. Though the downfall of Assad may seem advantageous in countering Iran, Israel remains cautious about what might replace the regime it has coexisted with for decades. While formally allied with the Shiite Iran and Hezbollah, Ha- mas shares ideological common ground with Sunni insurgents in Syria, who are also rooted in the Muslim Brotherhood. Hamas has even congratulated these groups on their victory. Iran: Knocked down but not out Iran has been a steadfast supporter of the Assad regime, providing military and financial backing to ensure its survival. Iran's involvement in Syria is part of a broader strategy to maintain its influ- ence across the region, particularly by creating a "Shiite Crescent" stretching from Tehran to Beirut. Iran's military presence, including Quds Force opera- tives and Hezbollah fighters, was critical in bolstering Assad's position. However, recent setbacks, including the decap- itation of key allies by Israel, have sig- nificantly weakened Iran's influence in the region. After years of investment in Assad's regime, Iran's foothold in Syria is now at risk. But Iran may find its way back as a counterweight to Israel, espe- cially if the latter seeks to gain a perma- nent foothold in Syria. Iran may also try to break its isolation by reaching out to Turkey in a bid to reconcile Sunni and Shiite factions. The abrupt collapse of Bashar al-Assad's brutal regime has left a power vacuum, ripe for exploitation by the same regional and global powers that backed rival factions during Syria's decade- long civil war. James Debono explores the shifting dynamics, where some forces are rising in inf luence and others are waning Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan (left) and Bashar al-Assad