Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1530615
9 SYRIA'S NEW ERA maltatoday | SUNDAY • 15 DECEMBER 2024 The geopolitical stakes in Syria Russia: A port in the Mediterranean Russia's air force played a critical role in preserving Assad's regime, particu- larly during the 2016 battle for Aleppo. The now-defunct Wagner group had also provided backup for the regime. Moscow's strategic interests include maintaining its Mediterranean naval base in Tartus and projecting influence in the Middle East. The Kremlin has al- so acted as a power broker, balancing relationships with Iran and Turkey. However, with resources stretched by the war in Ukraine, Russia was un- able to prevent the regime's collapse. By granting asylum to Assad, Russia may have averted a bloodbath but risks losing the political capital it invested in Syria. Shelter for the deposed lead- er is likely to diminish Russia's already waning regional influence. However, in a bid to preserve its strategic foothold, Russia is likely to engage with the new government. Gulf States: From funding rebellion to reconstruction Saudi Arabia and the UAE initially backed Sunni-aligned Islamist groups seeking to overthrow Assad, raising concerns that the Syrian revolution's original calls for democracy would be diverted into a sectarian conflict, es- calating into a bloody divide. But they have shifted toward normalisation in recent years. This policy change reflects their desire to counterbalance Iranian influence and stabilise the region. The Gulf states are poised to play a signif- icant role in Syria's reconstruction, leveraging their wealth to gain political influence. United States: Waning influence in the region The US has seen its influence in the region wane, stemming from the dis- astrous fallout of its 2003 invasion of Iraq and its inability to restrain Israel despite supplying it with weapons. In- itially supporting anti-Assad forces, Washington later focused on combat- ing ISIS, relying heavily on Kurdish-led forces. It remains unclear whether the US will maintain its collaboration with Kurdish fighters or pivot toward im- proved relations with Turkey. The US is also likely to fear further blowback from Islamic militants if Syria follows the same destabilising trajectory as Iraq and Afghanistan. France: The legacy of a colonial power As Syria's former colonial power, France has deep historical ties to the Alawite community, which rose to prominence during the French mandate (1920–1946). France created the Alawite State, fostering loyalty that contribut- ed to the Assad regime's rise. Although France has opposed Assad's regime, it has accepted significantly fewer Syrian refugees than Germany. While Europe's influence in Syria is waning, France and the EU could en- courage inclusivity in a post-Assad Syria. However, the current emphasis on sus- pending asylum applications reflects the rise of far-right sentiment rather than a genuine assessment of conditions in Syria. It could take years, if not decades, for Syrians to feel safe returning to their homeland.