Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1532462
mt SURVEY SUNDAY • 16 FEBRUARY 2025 | maltatoday 8 other out. While 9.9% of PL voters in 2022 will now vote PN, 10.1% of PN voters will now vote for the PL. This also suggests that despite Robert Abela's increasingly partisan tone, the PL still manages to lure a tenth of 2022 PN voters. However, this is offset by 9.9% of 2022 PL voters, who are moving towards the PN. But Labour still loses more of its 2022 voters to abstention than the PN. The PL loses more than a fifth of its 2022 voters (21.1%) to abstention, while the PN loses 13.5% to abstention. Where the PN seems to be penalised more is losses to the smaller parties. In fact, while Labour is losing 3.5% of its 2022 voters to small parties, the PN is losing 6.5% of its 2022 voters to ADPD, Momentum and others. This is partly offset by gains that the PN is making among those who did not vote in 2022. The survey shows that 20.7% of non-vot- ers will now vote PN compared to 15.6% who will vote for the PL. Overall, the PN still benefits from a higher retention rate of 2022 general election voters – 69.9%. The PL retains 65.5% of its 2022 voters. While the survey shows Labour strengthening its position since Novem- ber, the results strongly indicate that the PN has substantially narrowed Labour's 39,000-vote advantage in the 2022 gen- eral election. Compared to the general election, the survey suggests that the PL has lost a staggering 33,377 votes, which are now mostly parked in the non-voter camp. However, the PN also loses 5,516 votes from its 2022 tally. While both ma- jor parties are losing votes, third party voters have increased by a remarkable 11,888 votes to reach the 21,196-vote mark. Non-voters have also increased by a staggering 27,423 votes from 2022. PN leads in Gozo and the northern districts The survey shows the PN leading in the Northern, North Harbour and Gozo regions, while the PL still leads by a very wide margin in the South-eastern re- gion and by a lower margin in the South Harbour. The survey also shows Labour overtaking the PN in the Western region where the PN was leading by a small margin in November. The PN's support peaks in the North- ern region, which includes Mosta and St Paul's Bay, where the party commands a relative majority of 44.2% and is leading the PL by a staggering 19 points. But the PN is only leading Labour by 2.3 points in the North Harbour which includes Sliema, Birkirkara and Qormi. In Gozo, the only region corresponding to an electoral district, the PN is leading Labour by a substantial 15 points, con- firming the results of a recent regional survey, which had a much more reliable sample of 666 Gozitan respondents. The regional survey showed the PN leading by six points. The February survey finds that sup- port for Labour remains rock solid in the South-eastern region, where the party leads the PN by a remarkable 36.8 points. In a clear indication that voters in this region remain allergic to the PN, the party only scores 17%. This region includes Żejtun, Marsaskala and Birżeb- buġa. The PL is less dominant in the South Harbour region, which includes the tra- ditional Cottonera stronghold. In the South Harbour, the PL leads the PN by 11.5 points. Pensioners and young people prefer Labour Compared to November, Labour has registered major gains among over 65-year-olds. While in this age cohort the two parties were neck to neck in the last survey, the PL now enjoys a healthy 17-point lead. This could reflect im- provements in pensions and other old age benefits as a result of the budget. The PL also leads by eight points among 16- to 35-year-olds, where the third-par- ty vote is strongest and abstention is highest. In contrast, the two major parties are running neck to neck among 36- to 50-year-olds and the PN is now leading by five points among 51- to 65-year-olds. This suggests that despite the tax cut, Labour still struggles among people at the peak or the autumn of their careers in what could be an indication that in- flation is still eating into the purchasing power of these categories. The survey also finds the PL lead- ing among primary, secondary and post-secondary voters but the PN leads by a substantial 20 points among the ter- tiary educated. This suggests that while Labour still enjoys widespread working class support it is shunned by graduates among which support for the Labour party drops to 22%. Support for the PL increases to over 53% among those with a secondary level of education. Signif- icantly Labour has restored its lead among those who have not attended university but have followed a post-sec- ondary course. In this strategic category, support for Labour has increased from 25% in November to 33.7% now. The rise of Momentum In their first showing in a MaltaTo- > FROM PREVIOUS PAGE Age Gender Region Education 2022 Voters 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0 PL 2022 PN 2022 No vote 2022 65.5% 9.9% 1.5% 1.7% 0.3% 21.1% 10.1% 69.9% 4% 2.2% 0.3% 13.5% 15.6% 20.7% 4% 3.1% 0.3% 56.4% PL PN Momentum ADPD Other Will not vote 2022 Voters 100% 90% 80% 70% 78.7% Trust Barometer All Voters Robert Abela Bernard Grech None 0 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 46.8% 24.7% 28.5% All Voters Nov 2024 maltatoday PL 48.2% ADPD 3.4% Momentum 4.0% PN 43.9% Others 0.5% Age Gender Region Education 2022 Voters 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0 16-35 36-50 51-65 65+ PL PN Momentum ADPD Other Will not vote Age 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 53.4% Voting Intentions Trust Barometer All Voters Robert Abela Bernard Grech None 0 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 46.8% 24.7% 28.5% All Voters Polling and market research since 2002 SURVEY Nov 2024 maltatoday PL 48.2% ADPD 3.4% Momentum 4.0% PN 43.9% Others 0.5% Age Gender Region Education 2022 Voters 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0 Primary Secondary Post-secondary Tertiary PL PN Momentum ADPD Other Will not vote Voting Intentions Trust Barometer All Voters Robert Abela Bernard Grech None 46.8% 24.7% 28.5% Polling and market research since 2002 SURVEY Nov 2024 Voting intentions of 2022 voters Voting intentions by age Voting intentions by education