Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1540705
9 ANALYSIS maltatoday | SUNDAY • 26 OCTOBER 2025 core or go back to the 2013 playbook? broke the camel's back. Similarly, by sounding increasingly divisive and tribal, Abela risks push- ing away centrists, principled leftists, and level-headed voters in general. So far there is no decisive straw breaking Labour's back. The closest to this was Abela's insensitive reaction to Jean Paul Sofia's mother in 2023. But Abela is still walking on a minefield. Old ghosts and Daphne's memory One key fault line lies in the legacy of Daphne Caruana Galizia and the return of Muscat loyalists such as Gafà and Schembri, who now claim to be helping Abela secure victory. For while Maltese society at large holds a more nuanced view of Caruana Galizia than her adu- lators, Gafà's cleansing of flowers from the makeshift memorial opposite the law courts has all the hallmarks of the kind of extremism and pathological fix- ation that moderates tend to shun. No wonder one of Abela's first wise deci- sions as prime minister in 2020 was to stop the cleansing of the memorial. The Muscat paradox But Abela seems to be forgetting that distancing himself from the likes of Gafà and Schembri was key to the party's ability to prosper after Muscat's resig- nation in 2019. The paradox now is that Abela has to choose between following Muscat's inclusive pre-2013 playbook and following the advice of Muscat loy- alists driven by self-preservation. Moreover, Abela has already played the Muscat card to prop up the core vote before the MEP elections in 2024. But instead of winning back voters, he ended up losing his super majority. The irony now is that for Abela to follow the 2013 playbook he has to dis- tance himself from the divisive antics of people like Gafà and the questionable legacy left by Schembri. In fact, Abela's terse reaction to Malt- aToday's questions on Schembri's claim that he is helping him betrays his un- ease and awareness of the dangers in opening up to the man he once report- edly referred to as "that cuckold" who "screwed" Muscat. Waiting for a post-budget pivot Still, party insiders insist that despite the discomfort this strategy is creating among party moderates, it may still pay off in a context where the party remains more trusted than the Opposition in running the economy. That is why some are expecting a shift to a more inclusive pitch after tomor- row's budget. They point out that while the last Nationalist prime minister, Lawrence Gonzi, was weighed down by austerity, Abela remains on top despite presiding over two major international crises—the pandemic and the invasion of Ukraine while still delivering eco- nomic growth. The Alex Borg factor Much depends on Alex Borg's abili- ty to do two seemingly contradictory things: Giving the impression that he would build on Labour's success while also giving the impression of change to correct some aspects of the economic model. In this sense, Labour risks underesti- mating Borg's Teflon personality and his ability to persuade different au- diences and sell a catch-all narrative. Still, a lot is at stake in Borg's reply to the budget where he will be delivering his message to a national audience. His message has to resonate both with those worried with disruption and those wor- ried with too much continuity. He will have to make a pitch to pro- testers including principled leftists pro- testing on budget day against Abela's planning reform, construed as a gift to developers. But he will also have to try to reassure those who fear change. In this sense both leaders will be perform- ing difficult balancing acts to convince an electorate which is increasingly frag- mented and whose voting patterns are harder to decipher and predict. Jennifer Tabone seen here addressing a mass meeting of the Labour Party. She resigned from Nisa Laburisti partly because of the shenanigans of Neville Gafa, who was recently installed as a person of trust at the Office of the Prime Minister