Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1544987
SURVEYS can be great fun but they can also cause headaches and stress in a situation where the psyche of the electorate is changing dramatically. Today's MaltaToday survey shows that the Labour Par- ty is leading with 17,400 votes but crucially it also shows that 56,000 voters are undecided. Understanding how these peo- ple will vote, if at all, is crucial and they are not a small num- ber. Indeed, this cohort of vot- ers is a force that could sway the outcome of an election. Before we entertain a serious debate on what these survey re- sults could mean let us look at some real electoral figures. In the last four elections the votes cast were as follows: 2022 – 85.6%; 2017 – 92.1%; 2013 – 93.0%; and 2008 – 93.3%. The trend since 2008 has been for more people to stay home. My subjective take on turn- out is that more people will stay home on 30 May and if the turnout is going to be 77% or 80% that will be quite a num- ber. Another interesting set of numbers are the number of votes cast for the Labour and Nationalist parties over the years. 2022: PL 162,707; PN 123,233 2017: PL 170,976; PN 135,696 2013: PL 167,533; PN 132,426 2008: PL 141,888 PN: 143,468 Looking at these numbers, one must remember that in 2022, although Labour Party had a landslide victory over the Nationalists, the raw numbers showed that the PL had re- duced its voting tally despite an increase in eligible voters and the addition of 16-year-olds who were voting for the first time ever in a national election. The truth is that the 39,000-vote majority for the PL was a result of Nationalist voters staying at home. Since 2008, the Nationalist vote share has decreased by 20,000 votes. Many were put off by the antics of their political leaders—Si- mon Busuttil, Adrian Delia and Bernard Grech. Will Alex Borg reverse that trend and recover the lost voting share? The feeling out there is that Borg may have been revers- ing the trend through a po- litical style that attracted the long-forgotten sheep back to the fold. The big question is how many will return? The second question, is how much will the Labour vote de- cline from 2022. My guess is as good as yours but I do not see the figure growing. And if it remains the same it would a feat for Robert Abela and La- bour. With a tiger economy and cushioned lifestyle, he has many cards to play and pros- pects to offer. The third question is, if there is a swing, how big will it be? The MaltaToday survey is showing that as things stand to- day the net swing towards the PN is small. Could it be bigger? The last question, concerns 16-year-old voters and how they will vote, if at all. Surveys give provide impor- tant snapshots that must be in- terpreted with utmost caution. Most of the undecided are not happy with the two main parties. They cannot quite un- derstand how the international crisis, which supposedly drove us to this early election justify the ludicrous handouts and fis- cal giveaways being pledged left right and centre. The extravagant financial contributions come at a price. Surely, this was not a battle of ideas, but of who was more ca- pable of promising the steadiest flow of money in each sector and segment. How to fight the cynicism in the undecided voter is not something I can advise about. But I must say that the plethora of proposals is so extreme that most people cannot really tell who is proposing what. What I can say is that the out- look of the undecided voter is very probably linked to compe- tence, decision making, integri- ty and a no bullshit approach. In this regard the two leaders have their strengths and weaknesses. What do they think about con- trolling population growth and tourism; upholding traditions; regulating the number of cars; introduce abortion; hunting; a high-rise building ban; ex- cessive noise; raising taxes for the rich, raising income for the wealthy; accountability and other fringe topics that never get to be discussed. Probably many of the con- cerns that interest the undecid- ed voter are under the radar. Small pockets of worries kilo- metres away from the political focus of the parties, but not too far from daily trepidations of normal citizens that we have been covering in this newspa- per for the last years, are at the centre of the undecided voter's soul and heart. We have less than two weeks left for E-day, and it will be a crucial time for all parties. They must, if I could give some advice, talk about things that are more related to dreams. We have heard enough of the ma- terial world. We need to hear something about the country we live in; liveability and the sheer enjoyment of being Mal- tese and living in Malta. Now that is more like it! 5 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 17 MAY 2026 OPINION Saviour Balzan With E-day around the corner, it's a journey into the unknown Founder and co-owner of Media Today, publisher of MaltaToday, he is a TV host and pollster We journey into the unknown and will only be sure on Sunday 31 May We have less than two weeks left for E-day, and it will be a crucial time for all parties. They must, if I could give some advice, talk about things that are more related to dreams