Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1546572
3 maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 16 SEPTEMBER 2026 NEWS CONTINUES FROM PAGE 1 Eurostat's baseline scenario assumes around 32,000 fewer net migrants cumulatively be- tween 2026 and 2050 compared with EUROPOP2023. Annual net migration is pro- jected to decline steadily from around 10,600 people in 2025 to 3,450 by 2100. Population growth between 2025 and 2050 is project- ed to average 0.9% annually, down from 1.2% under EU- ROPOP2023. The resulting population projection for 2050 is around 3% lower than in the previous projection. The study notes that Eurostat models migration using histori- cal flow averages together with a labour replacement feedback mechanism. The projections do not incorporate climate change or environmental impacts as variables. Elderly could outnumber working-age population The consequences of stopping migration would extend beyond the overall size of the popula- tion. Under the zero-migration scenario, Malta's population would fall to around 530,000 by 2050 before declining by 56% to 252,000 by 2100. The old-age dependency ratio, measuring the number of peo- ple aged 65 and over relative to those aged between 15 and 64, would rise from 26.6% in 2025 to 104% by 2100. This would mean that the number of residents aged 65 and over would exceed the number of working-age residents. By contrast, a scenario involv- ing 33% higher non-EU immi- gration would see Malta's pop- ulation reach a peak of 955,229 in 2081. Fertility rate falls to 1.01 The revised population out- look is also affected by Malta's exceptionally low fertility rate. The 2025 baseline total fertility rate is estimated at 1.01 children per woman, down from the 1.15 assumed in EUROPOP2023 and below the EU average of 1.31. This is the lowest fertility rate among EU member states in the projections. Age-specific fertility among women aged between 31 and 34 has also fallen to around 70 births per 1,000 women, com- pared with more than 80 per 1,000 in earlier projection vin- tages. The lower fertility starting point is projected to reduce Mal- ta's population by 16,730 people by 2050, as smaller cohorts of women reach childbearing age. A scenario involving fertility 20% below the baseline would result in a population around 57,000 lower by 2100. Slightly lower mortality rates, reflecting higher life expectancy, provide a modest counter-effect and are projected to add 3,625 people to the population by 2050. Deaths to more than double The Central Bank analysis concludes that positive net mi- gration remains the main driver of Malta's projected population growth. At the same time, the ageing population is expected to re- sult in a substantial increase in deaths. Annual deaths are project- ed to rise from around 4,300 in 2025 to around 10,000 by 2100, increasingly outweighing the contribution from natural popu- lation growth. The projections remain de- pendent on Eurostat's assump- tions and could therefore change if actual migration, fertility and mortality patterns differ from those incorporated in the model. Meanwhile, National Statistics Office data shows that Malta's population stood at 588,254 at the end of 2025, an increase of 2.4% over the previous year. The primary driver behind low- er projected population growth in 2025 projections compared to those made in 2023 is attributed to a reduction in expected net migration, incorporating 32,000 fewer net migrants from 2026 to 2050. Rather than reflecting policy interventions, this lower baseline aligns with an observed moderation in Maltese foreign net migration data, further compounded by a record-low baseline fertility rate of 1.01. Consequences of stopping migration would extend beyond the overall size of the population, study says CONTINUES FROM PAGE 1 From his end, Minister for the Implementation of the Elector- al Programme, Omar Farrugia announced that Cabinet ap- proved a legal notice to reduce stamp duty on the transfer of business between family mem- bers from 5% to 1.5%. Tuesday's Cabinet meeting saw the intervention of a num- ber of speakers. Rachel Decelis, a scientist and chartered envi- ronmentalist, spoke about the increasingly harsh summers Malta is experiencing and the massive strain being placed on the country's energy infra- structure. Decelis stressed that prepa- rations need to be made now before next summer. She not- ed that Malta's uniform energy subsidies are leading to waste, which, along with a growing resident and tourist popula- tion, continue to strain the country's infrastructure. Cabinet also heard from engi- neer Christopher Micallef who spoke about sustainable trans- port and praised the country's progress in utilising the sea as a mode of transport. On Malta's elusive metro pro- ject, Micallef insisted that such a project cannot solve the traf- fic problem without curbing car use and changing car-cen- tred infrastructure. From his end, Josef Azzo- pardi, an assistant head at a school, spoke about the need for trade schools to be reo- pened. He praised the educa- tion minister's proposal for a discussion on reopening trade schools. Azzopardi claimed that the current educational system has much room for improve- ment, especially for children who want to pursue vocational careers. Azzopardi also ques- tioned whether it was time to open the Alternative Learning Programme to younger stu- dents. BCA will recoup funds handed to third parties from developers The measure is intended to prevent third parties from having to go to court themselves (File photo)