Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/294639
maltatoday, SUNDAY, 13 APRIL 2014 News 17 behind Dalli in Labour's race. Clint Camilleri has also made some in- roads among Gozitan respondents, while Cyrus Engerer, who shared the third place with Mizzi in last month's survey, has lost support. In the PN camp, incumbents Met- sola and Casa remain firmly in the lead in this survey, even if Casa has lost seven points. On the other hand, newcomers Therese Comodini Cachia and Norman Vella emerge as the favourites for the party's possible third seat, replacing Francis Zammit Dimech who occupied this position last month. Due to the margin of error, it is very difficult to determine the stand- ing of other candidates, and a very large segment of voters remains un- decided. While among Labour voters 36% are undecided, among PN voters the percentage rises to 44%. Moreo- ver these results are only indicative because actual seats will be deter- mined on the basis of second, third and subsequent preferences. Much will depend on how the surplus of the frontrunners will be distributed among the rest of the candidates. This means that candidates with a low first count may still overtake stronger candidates who do not man- age to attract the second preferences of the frontrunners or the weaker candidates who will be eliminated. Muscat leads Busuttil by 10 points Compared to last month, Muscat has seen his trust lead erode by four points while Simon Busuttil's in- crease by two. In this survey, Muscat registers his worst trust rating since October 2013, while Busuttil registers the best rating since his election as party leader. The per- centage of r e s p o n d e n t s who trust nei- ther of the two leaders has de- creased by four points. Busuttil im- proves his stand- ing among 2013 PN voters and makes insignificant inroads among PL vot- ers and switchers, most of which still trust Muscat more than Busuttil. On the other hand, although Mus- cat roughly enjoys the same trust rating among Labour voters as last month, the surveys show a five-point increase of Labour respondents who trust neither of the two leaders. The survey also suggests that vot- ers are more entrenched in their loyalties than last month. Only 0.5% of 2013 PL voters prefer Busuttil to Muscat; while the percentage of PN voters who prefer Muscat to Busut- til decreased from 7% last month to 3%. This suggests that the PN has man- aged to contain any further losses to Muscat's party. Due to the small size of the sample of "switchers" represented in the sur- vey, the shifts could reflect a higher margin of error – but the survey con- firms previous ones, showing 68% of switchers still preferring Muscat to Busuttil, even if only 37% are sure of voting Labour. This suggests that a segment of these voters may harbour doubts on renewing their allegiance to Labour, but are still loyal to Muscat. And while 5% of these voters trust Busuttil more, 11% of the switchers will vote PN in May, suggesting that former PN voters are making the move back to their party… even if 9% trust neither of the two party leaders. This suggests that although the loy- alties of this category remain fluid, Muscat is still the preferred leader among this strategic category. The survey also shows that Busut- til is trusted by 75% of PN voters, while Muscat is trusted by 90% of Labour voters, confirming Muscat's solid hold in his Labour. Busuttil lost 10 points among the PN category of voters since December. Significantly, while 83% of PL vot- ers (down from 85% in December) judge Muscat's performance as prime minister positively, 90% trust him more than Busuttil. This sug- gests that a section of Labour voters is disenchanted by Muscat's per- formance in government, but would still prefer him to Busuttil. But with Muscat leading Busuttil by 10 points in the trust ratings, and Labour leading by four points, the Prime Minister remains more popu- lar than his own party, a problematic scenario in an election where voters choose MEPs and not the next pre- mier. So Muscat may well take a more active role in winning votes for his party's candidates in the next weeks. It might be an effective strategy for switchers that are more loyal to Muscat than to Labour, but this strategy could alienate those Labour voters who have become lukewarm towards the Prime Minister. Methodology 572 respondents were contacted by telephone between Monday 7 April and Thurs- day 10 April. 400 accepted to be interviewed. The results of the sur- vey were weighed to reflect the age and gender bal- ance of the popu- lation. The survey has a margin of error of +/-4.9%. European elections, Labour four points ahead News mt survey ! " # #" #! # ! ! # ! " !" " ! " " ! 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